How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: toss-up
• Cook Political Report: lean democratic
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: leans democratic

Why is it in play?

O’Halleran, a former Republican, won by a comfortable margin in 2016 against Sheriff Paul Babeu, who was tarnished by a sex scandal. In his second race, the DCCC worries that the first-term congressman could be vulnerable against a more wholesome GOP candidate. The district poses two major hurdles for any Republican challenger: its massive size (bigger than Illinois), and the largest Native American population of any district, a demographic that skews Democratic.

Who are the challengers?

State Senator Steve Smith has the fundraising lead among Republicans, with over $120,000 on hand. His call for “real border security,” including authoringa bill that allows Arizona to build its own border fence, could sway voters in a district that has gone Republican in the last five presidential elections.

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: toss-up
• Cook Political Report: republican toss-up
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: toss-up

Why is it in play?

After a year preparing to defend her seat in Congress, Martha McSally is now expected to pivot toward the Senate for Jeff Flake's open seat. This leaves the Second open for the first time since 2002, and Democrats are ready for a revitalized push after a blowout in the last race. Before dropping out, McSally was slipping in the polls, and in October, the DCCC spent six figures on radio ads tying her to Obamacare repeal. No Republican has announced a bid yet in the wake of McSally’s alleged run. Whoever emerges will have to catch up to the Democrats' fundraising lead, and dodge their attempts to tie the Republican candidate to Trump, to win the district taken by Clinton.

Who are the challengers?

Ann Kirkpatrick, a former congresswoman and the 2016 challenger to John McCain leads a pack of five in the Democratic primary. Kirkpatrick raised a self-reported and impressive $350,000 in the third quarter, and a June poll had her poised to beat McSally by five points. Physician and former state rep Matt Heinz, who lost to McSally in 2016, plans to make another run, though he trails Kirkpatrick in cash on hand by almost six figures. No Republican has announced a bid yet in the wake of McSally’s alleged run.

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: likely democratic
• Cook Political Report: lean democratic
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: leans democratic

Why is it in play?

During his 2016 reelection campaign, it came out that Bera’s father had illegally funneled money to his first two campaigns. (Babulal Bera was sentenced to a year in prison.) Clinton won the district, but given Bera’s tarnished reputation and the antipathy from his own ranks (the state party hesitated to endorse him in 2016), some strategists think he could be toppled by a political newcomer without as much baggage. This Sacramento district is also notoriously competitive, and Bera’s 2014 race was the most expensive in the country.

Who are the challengers?

Republican Andrew Grant, a former Marine and current CEO of the Northern California World Trade Center, launched his bid back in July. Though he’s a political newcomer, he’s played up his business experience and knowledge of federal government through his stints in the Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Defense. Grant is trying to push a fairly moderate conservative platform of tax reform, health-care reform, and more aggressive foreign policy. However, his fundraising pales in comparison to Bera’s, and his reluctance to condemn Obamacare repeal could harm him.

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: lean republican
• Cook Political Report: lean republican
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: toss-up

Why is it in play?

Despite a fundraising advantage over his 2016 opponent, beekeeper Michael Eggman, Denham won by just 8,201 votes, leaving Democrats hopeful they can flip the district. Denham rarely mentioned Trump on the trail, though he’s since consistently voted for Trump’s agenda. This Central Valley district is 43 percent Latino, so Denham, who was first elected in 2010, has always tacked left of his party on immigration; he’s now pushing a program under which immigrants could gain citizenship through military service. Additionally, about 40 percent of the district are enrolled in California’s Medicaid system, which would have likely faced cuts under the Republican health-care bill and which Denham voted for. A spike in registration gave Dems a slight advantage in 2016, and the district went to Clinton by three points. However, the nearly 20 percent of voters who registered as having “no party preference” skew conservative here.

Who are the challengers?

There are at least nine Democrats vying for the nomination, increasing the possibility that Denham will have a strong challenger (rather than token competition). The most promising so far is Josh Harder, a 30-year-old venture-capital investor. He’s raised only $632,407, but his ties to Silicon Valley could pay off. Then there’s TJ Cox, an engineer who also ran for Congress back in 2006 and who has criticized Denham’s vote for Obamacare repeal. Emergency-room nurse Sue Zwahlen, who has twice been elected to the local school board, could also pose a threat, especially if Republicans continue to target Obamacare.

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: lean republican
• Cook Political Report: republican toss-up
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: toss-up

Why is it in play?

In 2016, Knight was considered one of the state’s most vulnerable incumbents. His northern Los Angeles County district has long been a Republican holdout in a sea of blue (the district hasn’t elected a Democrat since 1990), but Democratic registration finally edged out Republican registration in 2014. Because of California’s “jungle primary” system, which funnels the top two primary candidates into the general election regardless of their party, Knight faced another Republican in 2014. In 2016, his race against attorney Bryan Caforio drew national attention — Paul Ryan visited the district to raise money for Knight; Obama appeared in a TV ad for Caforio — and outside groups spent a total of $5.5 million on the race. One $326,250 dark-money expenditure sent scores of canvassers into the street for Knight. However, Caforio drew criticism for moving into the district shortly before declaring his candidacy, and unsuccessfully attempted to tie Knight to Trump. Though Knight was coy leading up to Trump’s election, he has since come out as a supporter, and his eventual opponent will likely have an easier time linking the congressman to the president. Knight’s vote to repeal Obamacare will also make him vulnerable.

Who are the challengers?

Encouraged by his narrow loss — by only six points — Caforio’s running for the seat again, and he’s raised $458,568. Katie Hill, the 29-year-old director of a local homelessness nonprofit, is also vying for the seat, and has raised $440,736, nearly as much as Caforio. Though politically inexperienced, she has managed a $40 million budget and has deep ties in the community, unlike Caforio.

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: toss-up
• Cook Political Report: lean democratic
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: toss-up

Why is it in play?

Royce, who announced his retirement in January, has represented this suburban, conservative, heavily immigrant enclave since 1993. The district is diverse — 31 percent Asian and 35 percent Latino — and rich; it has an average household income of $101,243. It’s also growing more liberal as Asian and Latino kids reach voting age: The Latino population has only grown by about four points since 2000, and Republican registration is down from 45 percent in 2000 to 36 percent today. Royce’s chances were looking dicey before; now that he’s out, chances are even higher that a Democrat will take his seat.

Who are the challengers?

There are five Democrats in the running. Pediatrician Mai-Khanh Tran was inspired to run after Republicans began attacking Obamacare, and has made defending the law the focus of her platform. She’s raised a solid $609,080. Health-insurance executive Andy Thorburn was inspired by Trump to run for election, and has lent his own campaign $2 million. He supports Obamacare and wants to see the country move toward single-payer, and will emphasize Royce’s vote for the Republican health-care bill. Gil Cisneros, a Navy veteran and millionaire lottery winner, is also in the running. He’s been endorsed by a liberal veterans' group and was a Republican until 2008. However, he only recently moved into the district, which could hurt him here.

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: tilt republican
• Cook Political Report: republican toss-up
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: toss-up

Why is it in play?

Like fellow California congressman Ed Royce, Rohrabacher is a more hard-line conservative who hasn’t faced much serious competition since he was first elected, in 1988. Though the district was gerrymandered to elect Republicans, the GOP registration declined to 41 percent in 2016. And while Democratic registration lags at 30 percent, “no party preference” voters (24 percent here) lean liberal. Rohrabacher handily beat his 2016 opponent, a former USC professor, without spending much. But Clinton won the district in 2016 and Obama in 2008, and now five Democrats and two Republican are vying for the seat.

Who are the challengers?

Harley Rouda, a Laguna Beach business consultant, is leading the Democratic horde, with $600,292 raised. However, he’s gotten flak for donating $1,000 to John Kasich during last year’s primary, and $9,200 to other Republican candidates over the past two decades. Stem-cell researcher Hans Keirstead is also a strong contender for the Democratic nomination, and has criticized Rohrabacher’s lack of action on climate change and vote for Obamacare repeal. Hoping to unseat Rohrabacher in the primary is Stelian Onufrei, who owns a construction business and is campaigning to “restore religious freedoms” and reform the tax code. He’s raised about $200,000 and has pledged $500,000 of his own money.

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: toss-up
• Cook Political Report: lean democratic
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: leans democratic

Why is it in play?

The wealthiest member of Congress and notorious former chairman of the House Oversight Committee, Darrell Issa announced his retirement in January after barely winning reelection in 2016. What was once a safely Republican district went for Clinton, marking the first time Orange County had voted for a Democrat since 1936, in part due to the growing Latino population. What was already looking like a feasible win for Democrats is now even more likely.

Who are the challengers?

Mike Levin, an environmental lawyer and former executive director of the Democratic Party of Orange County, has raised nearly a million dollars. He has party experience, local name recognition and environmentalist bona fides. Doug Applegate, a retired Marine colonel who barely lost to Issa in 2016, has raised a little over half a million, and may appeal more to the district’s veterans and independents, who skew conservative. (About 26 percent of voters are registered “no party preference.”)

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: tilt republican
• Cook Political Report: republican toss-up
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: toss-up

Why is it in play?

Former Marine Mike Coffman joined Congress in 2009 and has largely voted along party lines, opposing reproductive rights and the regulation of greenhouse gases. A birther for a minute in 2012, Coffman ran a “stand up to Trump” platform in 2016. But, he’s consistently voted with Trump’s positions –– with the notable exception of siding against the Republican health-care bill –– and has already faced heat from constituents, leaving a January town-hall meeting early after being booed. The district has stymied DNC expectations: The 2010 redistricting made the Sixth one of Colorado’s most diverse regions, and registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in a district where Clinton won by nine points. Nevertheless, GOP candidates have won the seat since it was created in 1983.

Who are the challengers?

Early models and a strong down-ballot effect suggest opportunity for Democrat Jason Crow, an attorney and former Army captain who has almost $400,000 on hand to support his campaignto enact criminal-justice reform and bring more high-tech jobs to the Denver area. Michelle and Barack Obama have released ads for another candidate, State Senator Morgan Carroll, the chairwoman of the Colorado Democrats, and she is the only candidatethat the Koch-fueled political advocacy group Americans for Prosperity is explicitly campaigning to defeat.

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: tilt democratic
• Cook Political Report: lean democratic
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: leans democratic

Why is it in play?

Compelled to join the 2016 race after the Pulse shooting just south of the district, Murphy ousted 12-term incumbent John Mica. A “blue dog” Dem, she has been a staunch advocate for gun control, supported a balanced-budget amendment, and proposed legislation to keep Steve Bannon off the National Security Council. Hurricane Maria will likely have a wide ripple effect for both the Seventh and Florida at large, where an estimated 100,000 Puerto Ricans are relocating. Murphy has led calls for more funding for the island, and some expect that the boost of traditionally Democratic Puerto Ricans in her districtcould hand her the win. Still, Democrats enjoy only a 4,000-person lead in registered voters, and the NRCC has targeted Murphy as a one-and-done rep, hitting her with ads claiming she’s soft on terrorism.

Who are the challengers?

To her left, the centrist Murphy will have to defend in the primary against Air Force vet and former ACLU chapter president Chardo Richardson, a member of the new Justice Democrats, who represent the Sanders wing of the party. To her right, businessman Scott Sturgill and state representative Mike Miller have quickly raised six figures, indications of how eager the GOP is to take back this longtime citadel of Republican representation.

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: tilt republican
• Cook Political Report: lean republican
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: toss-up

Why is it in play?

Curbelo’s district went for Obama twice, voted for Clinton, and recently underwent court-ordered redistricting that tilted it in favor of Democrats. In 2016, he went into the race with $2 million stashed away from his unchallenged primary race, while his opponent, former Democratic representative Joe Garcia, a weak fundraiser, had a scandal-filled past and set himself back when he told a room of supporters that Clinton “is under no illusions that you want to have sex with her.” Throughout the campaign, Curbelo, a self-described centrist, criticized Trump and was able to tout his moderate record, which includes voting against defunding Planned Parenthood and for climate-change regulations. Democrats are hoping they can finally topple him with a strong and well-funded candidate.

Who are the challengers?

Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who ran an unsuccessful bid for state senate in 2016, has emerged as the frontrunner against Curbelo. She’s been endorsed by EMILY’s List and congresswoman Lois Frankel, but so far has only raised $177,049. She’s also faced criticism for living outside the district. However, she has significant Establishment support, and Curbelo will be vulnerable to criticism of his vote on the health-care bill.

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: likely republican
• Cook Political Report: lean republican
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: leans republican

Why is it in play?

Georgia’s Sixth, a.k.a. the gravesite of early #resistance hopes, is where Karen Handel defeated the liberally funded 30-year-old Democrat Jon Ossof in a June special election to fill the seat of Tom Price, who was in his first (and last) days as the shortest-serving secretary of Health and Human Services in history. Handel, whom Politico once called a“Palin-style conservative,” is gearing up for her next race with nearlyhalf-a-million dollars ready to defend her title as Georgia’s first Republican congresswoman. Democrats hope that the surprise flipof two conservative seats in the statehouse in November are a sign that backlash against Trump could help close the 3.6-point gap in the next election.

Who are the challengers?

Several Democrats, including local TV anchor Bobby Kaple, have expressed interest in running, though there’s a possible rematch of the most expensive House election ever, as Ossof has moved to the suburban Atlanta district — during the special election, he was heavily criticized for residing outside the borders of the Sixth, and upon the move, the Handel campaign encouraged supporters to send asnarky email welcoming Ossof to the district. Ossof has been ripping into Trump at suburban fundraisers and has$294,000 remaining in other receipts, though he wants to“let them sweat a little longer” before an official entry.

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: lean republican
• Cook Political Report: republican toss-up
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: leans republican

Why is it in play?

When Blum narrowly won his first congressional election in 2014, political pundits considered it a fluke. The multimillionaire software executive was a right-wing Republican with no political experience in a reliably blue district that Obama had carried twice by double-digit margins. When Blum arrived in Washington, he made no effort to strike a moderate tone. He joined the Freedom Caucus and cast his very first vote against reelecting John Boehner as Speaker. In 2016, he was considered one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the country. His Democratic opponent outspent him by nearly $1 million. Still, he won. But registered Democrats outnumber Republicans here. In the next election, it’ll become a lot clearer whether this heavily white working-class area was merely disillusioned with the status quo or whether it has swung drastically to the right.

Who are the challengers?

Of the four Democrats running, Abby Finkenauer, a 28-year-old state representative from Dubuque, has emerged as the frontrunner. She’s received crucial union endorsements and raised $300,000. Most of those were small individual donations, while much of Blum’s fundraising has come from political action committees. In the primary she’ll face Thomas Heckroth, who’s raised $133,822. He previously worked in the Department of Labor under Obama and helped his father win election to the state senate.

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: likely republican
• Cook Political Report: lean republican
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: leans republican

Why is it in play?

A former GOP Senate aide now in his second term, Young tepidly endorsed Trump, but he stayed away from his rallies in Iowa and didn’t attend the Republican National Convention. He told constituents at a Des Moines town hall that his previous votes to repeal Obamacare were “symbolic in a lot of ways” and that he did not support the AHCA. In response, the Congressional Leadership Fund, a Paul Ryan–associated super-PAC that had spent $1.9 million on Young in 2016, withdrew its support. Now, nine different Democrats have launched bids to unseat Young.

Who are the challengers?

Des Moines real-estate executive Theresa Greenfield has a fundraising edge, with $199,763, and is campaigning to increase rural broadband access and make health care more affordable. Eddie Mauro owns an insurance company and is well-known across the metro area for coaching baseball and football. He’s raised nearly as much as Greenfield, and has criticized Young’s vote for the Republican health-care bill.

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: likely republican
• Cook Political Report: lean republican
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: likely republican

Why is it in play?

In 2016, Roskam won his sixth term in this reliably Republican district, which stretches across the northwestern Chicago suburbs. Roskam hasn’t even debated an opponent since 2008. But he is also the only Illinois Republican whose district Clinton won. He’s consistently voted in line with Trump’s positions, is for repealing the ACA, voted yes on Republicans’ AHCA, and has said he supports the “underlying theme” of Trump’s immigration order. He’s also come out strongly for the Republican tax plan. Tying himself to Trump may hurt him in a district that has seen a lot of activism postelection, and Roskam has a reputation for being inaccessible to constituents. He’s held only one town-hall meeting ever. For a few weeks last spring, he was followed around by protesters.

Who are the challengers?

Kelly Mazeski, an 18-year veteran of small-town government and a breast-cancer survivor, plans to hit Roskam hard on health-care policy. She has placed her own struggle with illness and health insurance front and center in her campaign, and has raised the most money out of the nine Dems vying for the nomination. But she still lags far behind Roskam in terms of fundraising. Amanda Howland, a local attorney who was the Democratic nominee in 2016, is also running again, in spite of having lost to Roskam by 18 points last year. She struggled to raise money in the last election cycle, and Roskam outspent her by millions. Her fundraising this year is still seriously behind; she finished the third quarter with only $48,891on hand.

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: lean republican
• Cook Political Report: lean republican
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: leans republican

Why is it in play?

Yoder was just 34 when he won his House seat as part of the Republican wave of 2010. He’s since eased into the path of a steadily rising Establishment Republican. But in 2016, voters in Yoder’s district showed a notable lack of enthusiasm for both Trump and tax-slashing Kansas governor Sam Brownback, and Yoder worked to distance himself. Since the election, he has made an effort to score bipartisan bona fides, calling for robust federal spending on cancer and Alzheimer’s research and defending civil-rights icon John Lewis in his public spat with Trump. Yoder’s district swung among Bush, Obama, Romney, and Clinton in the past four elections, and the DCCC has already hired a full-time local organizer with the goal of ousting the congressman.

Who are the challengers?

Andrea Ramsey, the former president of a nonprofit pediatric health clinic, entered the race after Yoder voted for the Republican health-care bill. Since then she’s raised almost half a million, significantly outpacing the four other Democrats who have entered the race. Health care is also the main talking point of Tom Niermann, a private-school history teacher, who has raised a little over $180,000.

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: likely republican
• Cook Political Report: lean republican
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: leans republican

Why is it in play?

A Phillips Exeter and Harvard grad who made millions as a real-estate developer, Poliquin first won his seat in 2014, becoming the only Republican in two decades to represent Maine’s heavily rural, proudly blue-collar Second District. As a candidate, he had railed against Obamacare, but as a congressman, in 2015, he was one of only three Republicans to vote against its repeal. His first bill was co-sponsored by Democrat Keith Ellison, one of the most liberal members of Congress. In 2016, he did his best to steer clear of mentioning Trump’s name. However, he still voted for the Republican health-care bill, something that will come back to haunt him in this election.

Who are the challengers?

Democratic recruiters got lucky with Jared Golden, a 35-year-old veteran Marine and state representative. He’s also worked for Senator Susan Collins and has tried to emphasize her vote against Obamacare repeal and Poliquin’s vote in favor of it. There are three other Democratic candidates, but Golden’s out-raised all of them, with a little over $100,000.

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: lean republican
• Cook Political Report: republican toss-up
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: toss-up

Why is it in play?

Two-term incumbent Dave Trott’s seat was considered fairly safe until he announced his retirement in September (Cook Political Report then deemed it a toss-up). The DCCC pointed to Trott’s vote for the GOP health-care bill as evidence that he would have faced a tough reelection, and it would have been difficult for him to distance himself from Trump, with whom he’s voted in line 98 percent of the time. Four Democrats and five Republicans have already entered the race, which is likely to be brutal and expensive. The emerging frontrunners are Lena Epstein, Trump’s state campaign co-chair, and Haley Stevens, who was chief of staff of Obama’s auto-industry bailout task force.

Who are the challengers?

Epstein, who runs her family automotive lubricant business, abandoned a Senate bid against Debbie Stabenow to run for Trott’s seat as a Republican. She’s already raised nearly a million dollars (including a significant chunk of money she loaned herself). Though her ability to self-fund is a big help, she’s a political newcomer, and hasn’t tried to distance herself from Trump at all. Democrat Haley Stevens, who most recently worked at the Digital Manufacturing and Design Innovation Institute in Chicago, has raised a little over half a million, and was campaigning for the seat even before Trott announced his retirement. She’s touted her background to push for more high-tech manufacturing jobs. Also on the Democratic side is Fayrouz Saad, the former director of immigration affairs for Detroit who launched a bid back in July, and would be the first Muslim woman elected to Congress. Saad worked in the Department of Homeland Security under Obama and has a long track record working on voter engagement in the state’s Arab-American community.

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: toss-up
• Cook Political Report: democratic toss-up
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: toss-up

Why is it in play?

Democrat Tim Walz has held the farm-heavy, far-southern Minnesota First for six terms, but in 2018, he’s placing his bet on a gubernatorial run. For the district’s first open-seat election since 2006, state experts expect millions in outside spending to pour in, which is good news for leading Republican Jim Hagedorn.

Who are the challengers?

Though he’s lost two in a row to Walz, Hagedorn received less than $1,500 of outside money and still came within 3,000 votes of turning the district. Already stocked with over $300,000, Hagedorn promises to be a “reinforcement” for congressional Republicans and work with the president to determine the “bold solutions needed to Keep America Safe.” It’s proven language in a district where voters favored Trump by 15 points. The Democrat with the head start appears to be Dan Feehan, an Iraq War vet and an assistant Defense secretary under Obama, who has honed in on the district’s core issues of health care and agriculture.

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: toss-up
• Cook Political Report: republican toss-up
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: toss-up

Why is it in play?

Craig is running for a rematch, hopeful that she can unseat Lewis absent the threat of an independent. She’s launched a listening tour and is especially going after those who voted for Obama twice before foregoing Clinton for Trump. However, she’s only put away about $5,000. Another Democrat, Jeff Erdmann, a high-school civics teacher and football coach who was inspired to run after a stint working on Craig’s 2016 campaign, has raised over $70,000.

Who are the challengers?

A talk-radio host before he was a congressman, Lewis was famous for calling Hurricane Katrina victims “a bunch of whiners,” alleging that single women “vote on the issue of somebody else buying their diaphragm,” and likening progressive taxation to chattel slavery. When he entered the 2016 GOP primary race, he seemed a bad fit for Minnesota’s Second District, which had twice voted for Obama. In the general election, first-time Democratic candidate Angie Craig painted the shock jock as a mini-Trump. Craig lost, but an independent candidate took nearly 8 percent of the vote, more than four times Lewis’s margin of victory, giving the DCCC hope the seat can still be flipped.

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: lean republican
• Cook Political Report: lean republican
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: leans republican

Why is it in play?

A six-term Chamber of Commerce Republican, Paulsen represents a cluster of suburbs and exurbs to the west of Minneapolis that constitute the wealthiest, best-educated congressional district in the state, full of the moderate voters who might have happily backed Jeb Bush but found Trump toxic. The veteran congressman avoided discussing his party’s nominee, saying he’d cast a write-in ballot for Marco Rubio. Paulsen is a particular target of the DCCC, and the House Majority PAC has already dropped nearly $8,000 against him, signalling a willingness to dump in more money as the race progresses.

Who are the challengers?

Experienced entrepreneur Dean Phillips is pushing a centrist, pro-business platform that will likely resonate with voters in the wealthy district, and has emphasized that he’s not a “typical Democrat.” Phillips ran his family’s distillery before becoming part of the group that started gelato company Talenti, and now runs a successful café, which touts the $15 minimum wage it pays employees. Republicans have already tried to paint him as a flip-flopper after he declined to state whether he would self-fund his own campaign (he’s since vowed to refuse money from PACs and lobbyists).

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: lean democratic
• Cook Political Report: lean democratic
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: leans democratic

Why is it in play?

A “Watergate baby” congressman from 1975 to 1980, Nolan returned to the House in 2012. In the last two races he’s faced Stewart Mills, the scion of a Minnesota sporting-goods chain, winning by nearly 4,000 votes in 2014 and by just over 2,000 in 2016. Once solid blue, the district has been feeling the populist wave spurred by job losses among miners in the Iron Range. Nolan briefly considered a gubernatorial bid, but with Tim Walz of the First District already in that race, he decided not to create a second open race in Minnesota.

Who are the challengers?

Mills is most likely not running again. Instead, Nolan will face St. Louis County Commissioner Pete Stauber. A former police officer and minor-league hockey forward, Stauber wants to “get these mines going” in the district, and raised $15,000 more than Nolan in the third quarter. In 2018, expect heaps of outside money: The district was the second-most expensive race last round.

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: tilt republican
• Cook Political Report: republican toss-up
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: toss-up

Why is it in play?

Before 2008, Nebraska’s Second District, which includes Omaha and its suburbs, had been considered a Republican stronghold. Then Obama pulled off an upset — the first time Nebraskans gave an electoral vote to a Democrat since 1964. (Nebraska awards three of its five electoral votes to the winners of its congressional districts.) And in 2014, Republican-turned-Democrat Brad Ashford unseated the district’s longtime representative, defying national trends. Viewing that win as an aberration, in 2016 Nebraska Republicans threw their support behind retired U.S. Air Force brigadier general Don Bacon, and he ended up beating Ashford by just over one point. When the Access Hollywood tape went public, Bacon said Pence should replace Trump atop the ticket. But in office, he has voted for the Trump agenda 96 percent of the time.

Who are the challengers?

Now Ashford is back for a rematch, hoping that a national anti-Trump wave can give him the little bump he needs to unseat Bacon. During his short time in Congress, Ashford succeeded in bringing a new Veterans Affairs medical center to the area and while he was a state legislator he helped pass what was then the state’s largest tax cut. He’s won praise for his bipartisan bona fides. (He’s also been criticized by those in his party as a “wolf in sheep’s clothing.”) Running to Ashford’s left is Kara Eastman, a political newcomer and president and CEO of the Omaha Healthy Kids Alliance, who supports single-payer health care, in contrast to Ashford. She’s raised nearly as much money as Ashford has, with $100,000 to his $127,000. There’s also been some speculation about Heath Mello, who narrowly lost his bid to become mayor of Omaha last spring.

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: toss-up
• Cook Political Report: democratic toss-up
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: toss-up

Why is it in play?

Carol Shea-Porter, the 64-year-old Democratic incumbent, announced in October that she “felt the tug of family” and would not seek reelection in 2018. New Hampshire’s First District has switched parties in four consecutive elections, andit’s one of only 12 districts currently represented by Democrats that went to Trump in 2016. Due to its ping-pong voting history and large population of Independent and Republican voters, the RNCC identified the district as a“top pick-up opportunity”even before Shea-Porter’s announcement.

Who are the challengers?

A handful of Democrats have jumped into the race, including Portsmouth city councilor Stefany Shaheen (the daughter of New Hampshire senator Jeanne Shaheen), and state rep Mindi Messmer, who has had success with aplatform of public health and small business.The GOP’s entrants include a former South Hampton police chief Eddie Edwards, who enjoys notablefundraising support from donors in the populous Seacoast district, and Andy Sanborn, a state senator who plays to New Hampshire’s libertarian streak — he quotes Rand Paul on hiscampaign website. In early November 2017, Steve Bannon attended a fundraiser in Manchester with a group that recruits“constitutional conservative candidates” to push the House further right and has identified at least one like-minded candidate in state senator Andy Martin, the original source of the “Obama is a Muslim” claims and a birther before Trump became the voice of that nativist strain. “We look forward to competing against whomever Steve Bannon nominates,”said a DCCC spokeswoman.

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: lean republican
• Cook Political Report: republican toss-up
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: toss-up

Why is it in play?

Twelve-term incumbent Frank LoBiondo announced his retirement in early November, blaming partisan gridlock in Congress. The 71-year-old took care to claim that his decision wasn’t electoral, and that he was “very confident voters would again reelect” him. (LoBiondo had voted against Obamacare repeal and was opposed to the Republican tax plan.) Though LoBiondo has safely won the district since he was first elected in 1994, and it was carried by Trump, it also voted for Obama twice, and Democrats are hopeful they can flip the seat.

Who are the challengers?

Though it’s expected to be a crowded primary field, no prominent Democrat has stepped forward since LoBiondo’s retirement. Currently the only candidate for office is Tanzie Youngblood, a 61-year-old without previous political experience, who announced her bid in July and was motivated by Republicans’ efforts to derail Obamacare. She’s raised about $20,000.

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: toss-up
• Cook Political Report: lean democratic
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: leans democratic

Why is it in play?

This North Jersey district hadn’t been held by a Dem in more than 30 years when Gottheimer eked out a victory last fall. The race against seven-term incumbent Scott Garrett shattered expenditure records and got personal (Garrett dug up assault allegations against Gottheimer; Gottheimer seized on anti-gay comments Garrett had reportedly made). Trump took the district, and a low-turnout midterm could flip it.

Who are the challengers?

Back in 2016, Steve Lonegan was a Ted Cruz supporter trying to overthrow Donald Trump at the RNC. Just a year later, he’s entered the race for New Jersey’s Fifth District, claiming he’d never been part of the dump-Trump movement and that he supports the president’s agenda fully. Lonegan, the former New Jersey director for Koch-affiliated Americans for Prosperity, will try to paint moderate Gottheimer as a member of the radical left who is out of touch with the average voter. In spite of talking a big game, though, Lonegan has lost previous bids for State Senate, Senate, governor, and Congress.

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: likely republican
• Cook Political Report: lean republican
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: leans republican

Why is it in play?

After winning in 2008 as a more moderate conservative, attorney Leonard Lance swerved right on social positions ahead of his 2010 reelection to protect himself from tea-party candidates in the primary. But under the current administration, he’s moved back toward the middle: Lance voted against the repeal of the Affordable Care Act, and is a spokesperson for GOP reps holding out on the party’s tax reform.

Who are the challengers?

New Jersey’s Seventh has been represented by the GOP since 1981. But given Clinton’s win there and Lance taking the heat of growing anti-Trump resentment, the district — home to Trump National Golf Club, the president’s planned burial site — could be in play. In February and April, Lance hosted rough town halls where he was the object of jeering over Russian influence on the election and partisan gridlock.

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: tilt democratic
• Cook Political Report: democratic toss-up
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: toss-up

Why is it in play?

Jacky Rosen won in 2016 on a pro-immigration and “protect seniors” campaign in Nevada’s Third District. This year though, she’s leaving behind her House seat to take on Dean Heller, the most vulnerable GOP senator of the 2018 class. Democrats hold a slight voter-registration lead in Nevada’s oldest, wealthiest district, though Republicans have held the seat for six out of eight election cycles since it was created in 2003.

Who are the challengers?

After losing in the 2016 primary for the Fourth congressional district, independently wealthy Democrat Susie Lee is leading all candidates with $308,000 on hand. An education advocate and nonprofit fundraiser, Lee pledges to lower prescription drug prices and ensure a $15 minimum wage. Victoria Seaman, the first Latina Republican elected to the state legislature, leads Republicans with just over six figures on hand. An America First candidate, she considers Senator Heller “out of touch” and thinks that Trump is facing obstruction from Democrats, Republicans, Congress, and the media.

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: tilt republican
• Cook Political Report: republican toss-up
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: leans republican

Why is it in play?

During his time in the New York State Assembly, Faso was known as a “militant fiscal conservative.” In 2016, he ran for New York’s 19th District against Fordham Law professor Zephyr Teachout, an expensive and high-profile race that drew millions in outside money, especially from Robert Mercer, who spent big to oppose Teachout. Earlier this term, Faso put his name on an amendment to the AHCA that would have shifted Medicaid costs from upstate counties to Albany — potentially creating health-care havoc. “They’ve declared war on New York,” responded Governor Cuomo. Local activists have taken to holding weekly “Faso Fridays” protests outside the congressman’s office.

Who are the challengers?

Eight Democrats are in the race; including two who have raised over a million dollars thus far (though neither has political experience — which these days could play either way). Harvard Law grad Antonio Delgado has raised more money than anyone in the race, including Faso himself. Inspired to run by decreasing job opportunities in his district in the Catskills and Hudson Valley, he’s played up his commitment to affordable health care and has drawn attention to Faso’s vote to defund Planned Parenthood. Early supporters like his clear communication style and his willingness to get into nuanced issues. But he only recently moved to the Hudson Valley from New Jersey, and he’ll have to overcome the same outsider status that kept some voters from supporting 2016 candidate Zephyr Teachout. Brian Flynn, another Democrat vying for the nomination, has raised nearly as much money as Delgado. Flynn owns a business that makes medical devices and describes himself as a “lifelong progressive.” Once the primary campaign heats up, it will be important to watch how he and Delgado distinguish their platforms which, at this stage, share many similar concerns.

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: tilt republican
• Cook Political Report: lean republican
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: leans republican

Why is it in play?

Tenney, a tea-party-affiliated first-term congresswoman, was named the most conservative legislator in the state by the New York Conservative Party when she was in the State Assembly. So far as a congresswoman, she has voted with Trump 96 percent of the time. Strategists think that will prove too conservative for NY-22, which has historically toggled between a moderate Democrat and a moderate Republican.

Who are the challengers?

Anthony Brindisi, a state assemblyman from Utica, is considered Tenney’s likely Democratic challenger. Local strategists say he’s effective at reaching young people, and has done great things for the region. In the state legislature, he fought for a record amount of funding for area public schools and worked on initiatives to expand technical education for high-school students. But the party is being careful to highlight his moderate record, which includes an A rating from the NRA, a draw for voters in upstate New York, where hunting is a big deal. Last quarter, he raised almost twice as much money as Tenney.

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: likely republican
• Cook Political Report: likely republican
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: likely republican

Why is it in play?

Katko spent 20 years as a federal prosecutor before winning this seat in 2014 — the fourth time since 2006 that the district had flipped. His opponent in 2016 was Colleen Deacon, a single mother from Syracuse who worked as a senior aide to Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and epitomized Gillibrand’s “Off the Sidelines” strategy of recruiting women to run for office. But Deacon struggled to gain name recognition and Katko worked hard to distance himself from the presidential candidate, playing up his party-line-crossing voting record (he would have been a no on the AHCA). Katko won easily, but Democrats felt that the right candidate would have a good shot of unseating him.

Who are the challengers?

Many Democrats hope that Stephanie Miner, the current mayor of Syracuse (which she insists remain a sanctuary city), with a war chest reportedly in the six figures, chooses to run. But Miner reportedly has her sights on the governor’s office, and has said she won’t run for Congress. Two Democrats have entered the race: Anne Messenger, a business consultant with deep roots in the area, and a Syracuse University professor, Dana Balter, who has become well known for her grassroots organizing in the first year of the Trump presidency. Both Democrats are seriously struggling to raise money, however; Messenger has raised just shy of $60,000, while Balter hasn’t pulled in more than $14,000.

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: lean republican
• Cook Political Report: lean republican
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: leans republican

Why is it in play?

The Sixth District’s House seat hasn’t been held by a Democrat since 2002. During the 2016 campaign, Costello was a fickle Trump supporter, backing the candidate in May, but then declining to go to the Republican National Convention. Since Inauguration Day, Costello has painted himself as a centrist, condemning Trump’s proposed budget cuts to medical research and public education (his parents were public-school teachers). He also sits on the bipartisan House Climate Solutions Caucus. After initially supporting the AHCA in committee, Costello was met with protests outside of his West Chester office and ended up voting against the bill. The district went for Obama in 2008, and Clinton won it by a sliver. That has the DCCC optimistic enough to include it on its “March Into ’18” hit list.

Who are the challengers?

Since entering the race in April, Air Force veteran Chrissy Houlahan has raised a healthy $810,000 and has been endorsed by EMILY’s List. She’s also an MIT grad and has significant business experience, including her tenure as the COO of a popular basketball apparel company. Though she’s a first-time candidate for political office, Democratic leadership are hopeful that Houlahan’s background will be enough to make her a contender for the district, one of a handful of Republican strongholds that went for Clinton last year. Though Costello didn’t vote for the Republican health-care bill, Houlahan has criticized his votes for other Trump policies (he’s voted in line with Trump about 94 percent of the time).

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: likely republican
• Cook Political Report: lean republican
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: leans republican

Why is it in play?

Meehan, now in his fourth term, is considered relatively moderate in a district that is notorious for its radically gerrymandered contours. The Washington Post described it as “one of the most geographically irregular districts in the nation.” Democrat Mary Ellen Balchunis, a political-science professor at La Salle University, has tried twice to unseat Meehan, without success or funding — Meehan outspent her this past cycle by more than ten to one. The DCCC, which is targeting the district, hopes that a well-financed candidate might be able to flip voters turned off by Trump, particularly in more-liberal Delaware County.

Who are the challengers?

Leading the pack of five Democrats is Daylin Leach, a state senator since 2008 who has raised nearly $400,000. Leach is fairly well-known for a state senator, and got a lot of attention back in February after he called Trump a “fascist, loofa-faced, shit-gibbon” in a tweet. He’s campaigning on a largely anti-Trump platform, and is hoping that he can appeal to moderate Republicans who also disapprove of the president. Philadelphia ward leader Dan Muroff, who has been endorsed by former governor Ed Rendell, has raised about $300,000. He’s criticized Meehan for supporting Trump’s agenda (the congressman has voted in line with the president about 88 percent of the time) and has touted his experience working as the board president for CeaseFirePA, an advocacy group to reduce gun violence. Molly Sheehan, a biomedical researcher at the University of Pennsylvania, has also launched a bid, and is running on a platform to shore up environmental protections and boost investments in education and technology.

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: lean republican
• Cook Political Report: lean republican
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: leans republican

Why is it in play?

A former FBI agent who led the bureau’s enforcement of campaign finance, Fitzpatrick took over his brother Michael’s seat in 2016, after Michael stood by his pledge to retire after four terms. Fitzpatrick has held up his brother’s bipartisan record, with a planned vote to keep Obamacare and support of a promising, albeit vague, GOP-led bill to employ “American ingenuity” against climate change. Though the district contributed to Trump’s poll-defying win in Pennsylvania, Democrats expect it to remain competitively purple, in part because Obama barely lost there in 2012. Could an anti-Trump bump unseat the Fitzpatricks for the first time since the landslide 2010 midterms?

Who are the challengers?

Democrats struggled to find a challenger until 33-year-old Navy veteran Rachel Reddick entered the race in October. Reddick, a graduate of Rutgers Law who served as a judge advocate general in the Navy, has criticized Fitzpatrick’s voting record and failure to “lower health-care costs.” However, like other vulnerable Pennsylvania Republicans, Fitzpatrick voted against Obamacare repeal, which may make it harder to attack his track record on health-care.

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: lean republican
• Cook Political Report: likely republican
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: likely republican

Why is it in play?

State Senator Lloyd Smucker maintained the GOP hold on the district in 2016 after 77-year-old incumbent Joe Pitts announced his retirement. Smucker was quick to voice disgust with Trump’s Access Hollywood comments, though he’s fallen in line since November, and when Trump first proposed the travel ban, he considered the executive order “entirely reasonable.” In March,100 constituents marched in on an official Lancaster County breakfast to protest his refusal to hold a town meeting — four demonstrators even paid to get inside and disrupt the meal. Republicans have a registration advantage here, and history is on their side, with a winning streak dating back to WWII. But a gerrymandering project in 2011 designed to bolster GOP support ended up giving away key conservative votes in Lancaster County, and Obama won the 16th (which is now 17 percent Hispanic) in 2012.

Who are the challengers?

Christina Hartman took a two-digit loss in 2016, but was not disheartened –– it was the closest a Democrat has come in decades to winning the district, and she has rebounded for a second run against Smucker. A nonprofit consultant from Lancaster, Hartman hopes to link her first-term opponent to the president’s 44.6 percent approval rating in the state.

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: lean republican
• Cook Political Report: lean republican
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: likely republican

Why is it in play?

The Texas Seventh is a longtime GOP bastion, reliably Republican since 1966, and Culberson, a tea-party conservative first elected in 2000, has pursued conservative causes such as defunding sanctuary cities and strongly supported delaying Obamacare funding in 2013. Even though Culberson held on by a wide margin in 2016, Democrats swept countywide seats within his affluent Houston district, which Culberson later told the Dallas Morning News was a “distressing trend.” This district saw one of the largest decreases in GOP presidential votes in the country (a double-digit drop from Romney to Trump). With an unpopular president and an increasingly diverse district, the DCCC is betting a strong Democratic contender might have a chance, and designated a full-time organizer to work in the district.

Who are the challengers?

Culberson, who had only a token challenger back in 2016, is now being challenged by seven Democrats and one Republican. Two of those Democrats even raised more money than Culberson last quarter, including 33-year-old Alex Triantaphyllis, a Harvard Law grad who currently oversees immigrant legal services at a local community development nonprofit and has raised $666,000 overall. Trial lawyer Lizzie Pannill Fletcher has also raised over half a million and has criticized Culberson for his vote in favor of the AHCA and for blocking increased transportation and infrastructure spending. Culberson has tried to cast his opponents’ fundraising following Hurricane Harvey as opportunistic, saying "I don’t think it’s appropriate and certainly not tasteful to raise money from people who’ve been devastated and lost everything.”

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: toss-up
• Cook Political Report: lean republican
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: toss-up

Why is it in play?

Regarded as one of the only true swing opportunities in Texas, TX–23 flips parties in almost every election. Second-termer Hurd represents a sprawling district hugging the U.S.-Mexico border that voted Clinton. In his favor, Hurd, a former CIA cybersecurity expert, is a rising voice on defense matters. His district also has abysmal midterm turnout rates (30 percent in 2014), which typically benefits the incumbent. But with President Trump’s controversial immigration policies hitting close to home, that might not mean much; former representative Pete Gallego made a second run at reelection in 2016 and almost won.

Who are the challengers?

Jay Hulings, a former federal prosecutor and Hill aide, is well-connected and has a strong tough-on-crime background. Both his parents served in the CIA, and he has a record of prosecuting public corruption. He also has the support of Harvard Law classmates Julián and Joaquin Castro, who have served as the HUD secretary and a congressman, respectively, and are wildly popular among Texas Democrats. Hulings has tried to tarnish Hurd’s brand as a moderate, highlighting the fact that Hurd has voted in line with Trump about 96 percent of the time. Gina Ortiz Jones, a former Air Force intelligence officer, has also been picking up steam. She worked in the office of the U.S. Trade Representative, which is responsible for recommending trade policy to the president, before deciding to move back to her home and run for office. She’s raised a little over $100,000 since launching her campaign in August.

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: likely republican
• Cook Political Report: lean republican
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: likely republican

Why is it in play?

Sessions is a reliable incumbent who’s been in office since 1997. In fact, the Democrats didn’t even run a candidate in the 2016 race. He occupies a powerful position as chairman of the House Rules Committee and has a strong foothold; however, Clinton took his district in the 2016 election and recent town halls have showcased discontent among constituents (“Vote him out!” went one overwhelming cheer). Clinton’s victory and a statewide shift toward blue politics mean that some see a pathway to victory for a compelling Democratic candidate. As part of their “March Into ’18” campaign, Democrats will have full-time organizers on the ground there for the first time.

Who are the challengers?

Ed Meier tops the list of Democrats taking on Sessions, and has raised over half a million dollars. A former senior adviser to Obama’s State Department and Clinton campaign staffer, Meier, after Trump was elected, moved his family from Washington, D.C., back home to the Dallas area intent on challenging Sessions. There are plenty of other Democrats in the primary field, but only two others have raised much cash — Lillian Salerno, a former deputy undersecretary for rural development in the Obama administration, and Colin Allred, a former NFL linebacker and a civil-rights attorney.

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: toss-up
• Cook Political Report: republican toss-up
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: toss-up

Why is it in play?

A Georgetown-educated lawyer, Comstock made her reputation in the 1990s as a ruthlessly effective opposition researcher, helping to expose and manufacture Clinton scandals and pseudo-scandals from Travelgate to Lewinsky. In 2014, she won the seat vacated by her former boss, Frank Wolf, by a 16-point margin. But Comstock’s district has steadily grown more ethnically diverse, affluent, and liberal, and Trump’s candidacy posed a threat to her job security. Comstock announced that she would not vote for him. She convinced enough voters to split their tickets that she prevailed by a six-point margin (Clinton won by ten; Romney was the narrow victor in 2012). Democrats are already mounting a serious effort at unseating her. In response, the NRCC has made Comstock one of its ten highest-priority incumbents in 2018.

Who are the challengers?

A handful of Democrats are raising serious money to unseat Northern Virginia’s sole Republican in Congress. Alison Friedman, an attorney and activist who once worked for the State Department’s anti–human trafficking office, has the lead so far. Since Ralph Northam’s trouncing of Ed Gillespie, Friedman has taken to calling Comstock “Gillespie’s best friend.” (Northam won bellwether Loudoun County, part of the Tenth District, by 20 points.) Friedman will have to beat out seven other Democrats in the primary, including Jennifer Wexton, a popular state senator from Loudon, Daniel Helmer, an Army vet and Rhodes scholar, and Lindsey Davis Stover, a former Obama White House official.

How vulnerable is the seat?

• Inside Elections: tilt democratic
• Cook Political Report: republican toss-up
• Sabato's Crystal Ball: toss-up

Why is it in play?

Seven-term incumbent Dave Reichert announced his retirement after the August recess, along with several other House Republicans. Clinton and Obama won the district in 2016 and 2012, but Reichert, an Air Force veteran with moderate stances, had withstood tough Democratic challengers before, and he voted against the Republican health-care bill. Now, with Reichert out of the way, seven Democrats and one Republican have launched bids for the seat.

Who are the challengers?

State Senator Dino Rossi, Republicans’ most sought-after recruit, has twice run for governor and once for senator, and has strong name recognition across the state. He hasn’t sought election since his failed 2010 Senate bid (he’s twice been appointed to the state senate on a caretaker basis) and Democrats have tried to paint him as an out-of-practice campaigner. However, he’s likely to hold a financial advantage throughout the race: this cycle, he raised over half a million dollars in nine days. Heading up the large Democratic field is pediatrician Kim Schrier, whose recent EMILY’s List endorsement will likely boost her fundraising efforts (she’s raised about a quarter million so far). She’s focused on affordable health care and criticized Reichert’s committee vote for the AHCA. Jason Rittereiser, a former deputy prosecutor in King County, has a record of handling sexual-assault cases and has held a few dozen town halls since launching his bid (in contrast to Reichert, whom Rittereiser has criticized for hiding from his constituents).