A one-year delay of Obamacare implementation, set to take effect Tuesday, polls well for Republicans in House battleground districts. But if it’s a battle between passing a clean funding bill or negotiating over health care, Republicans trail Democrats in crucial House swing districts next fall.
As both parties are frantically trying to frame a looming and likely government shutdown as hurting the other side, a new GOP poll released this morning argues that continuing to press for a delay of the Affordable Care Act is a winning message for their party.
A one-year delay of Obamacare implementation, set to take effect Tuesday, polls well for Republicans in House battleground districts. But if it’s a battle between passing a clean funding bill or negotiating over health care, Republicans trail Democrats in crucial House swing districts next fall.
According to a survey of 18 congressional districts conducted for the conservative American Action Forum by Republican pollster OnMessage Inc., health care reform and insurance exchanges set to go into effect Tuesday, October 1, is still opposed by 57% of voters across the districts, including 60% of independent voters. In swing districts, defined as those that have a PVI of D+1 to R+1, half say they oppose the law, and in Republican-held Democratic leaning districts (those represented by a GOP member where Romney won less than 47% in 2012), 54% opposed it. In conservative districts with a PVI of R+6 to R+10, opposition to Obamacare unsurprisingly reaches 66%.
But the group’s findings, as they support a delay in healthcare implementation through wagering it on a continuing resolution to fund the government, show that 55% of those surveyed say they favor GOP efforts to delay the individual mandate through the CR. Fifty-six percent of independent voters say they support the strategy, with 31% opposing it. In swing districts, 52% favor delaying the mandate through via the CR, and in GOP-held Democratic districts, it’s a similar 51% support. In conservative districts, 62% favor it.
The GOP poll also shows that when asked whether it’s appropriate to negotiate spending along with Obamacare defunding, Republicans have a five point edge. A 43% plurality said they agreed that that the GOP was “right to use every opportunity Congress has to defund or delay Obamacare and Democrats are the ones threatening to shut down the government because they refuse any negotiations ove delaying or fixing Obamacare.” Thirty-eight percent said they sided with Democrats who argue Republicans “should pass a clean funding bill instead of threatening to shut down the government over funding Obamacare, which would delay checks to seniors, veterans and active military personnel.”
But in swing districts, Democrats still have the edge, with 42% agree with the Democratic message, compared to 37% for the GOP argument. In GOP-held Democratic districts, Republicans have a narrow edge, 43%-41%.
Democrats have argued that a government shutdown could be a game-changer for them in the 2014 midterms, especially helping them in the House, where they face an uphill battle with needing to win 17 seats for control and fewer competitive seats thanks to last year’s redistricting. In a CNN/ORC poll also released Monday morning, 46% of respondents said they would blame congressional Republicans if there is a government shutdown, 36% saying they would blame President Obama, and 13% blaming both sides.
In a CNBC poll last week, 59% of Americans said they were opposed to defunding Obamacare if it meant a shutdown and government default, while just 19% favored it.
“On policy, the verdict is in. Among voters across the spectrum, Obamacare is unpopular and the funding bill is an appropriate place to fight for government reforms,” American Action Forum President and former CBO Director Doug Holtz-Eakin said in a statement. “They will support efforts to keep the government open and make changes to Obamacare.”
The OnMessage Inc. poll was conducted in 18 congressional districts from September 25-26 and surveyed 1,2200 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-2.82%.