Moderates and conservatives leave Boehner vulnerable on both sides before vote. 
Speaker John Boehner again demanded a one-year delay of a key piece of Obamacare, this time paired with cuts to Hill staffers’ benefits, in exchange for funding the government. Democratic leaders say they’ll reject it immediately. President Obama told the nation that House leaders were provoking a shutdown thanks to ”impossible promises made to the extreme right wing of their party.”
And while Boehner’s plan is sure to be rejected by Democrats, he’s got an even bigger problem: it’s not even clear that his own conference will support it.
Moderates and conservatives alike are starting to rebel, leaving Boehner exposed on the left and the right on a vote that’s supposed to show his strength in the final hours before a shutdown. That means Boehner will head into battle against a united Democratic front hobbled by an ugly civil war raging in his party.
On Boehner’s left flank, moderate Republicans who have long-warned against a confrontation over Obamacare are arguing that this may be the stop on the shutdown train where they get off.
Congressman Peter King of New York, who supported the House’s previous bill to delay Obamacare, said he planned to vote against the new measure. Not only that, he predicted to MSNBC’s Luke Russert that 20 or more moderate Republicans could join him, though “all probably won’t follow through.”
Moderate Republican Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania, called on Boehner to accede to Obama’s demands and offer a clean continuing resolution.
“The hour glass is already empty and it’s time that we pass a clean CR,” he told reporters.
“They have to be more than just a lemming,” he said of the House’s conservative wing. “Because jumping to your death is not enough.”
On the right, tea party rabble rousers like Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota will oppose the latest bill because it doesn’t go far enough in opposing Obamacare.
“For what I have done with my life as a federal tax lawyer, I wouldn’t negotiate with myself, because then I wouldn’t have a strong position,” Bachmann told reporters. It’s important we come at this with strength.”
According to Yahoo’s Chris Moody, Louie Gohmert of Texas will also oppose the bill on similar grounds.
Boehner can only afford to lose 16 Republicans votes, give or take 1 or 2 Democrats who might cross over. If his latest bill fails, it will severely damage his leverage by demonstrating his caucus is too divided to even reach a consensus starting point on negotiations.
A similar revolt during the 2012 fiscal cliff fight over the Bush tax cuts and sequestration ended with Boehner asking the Senate to reach a compromise instead, which he then passed over conservative objections with help from Democrats in the House. In this case, the damage would be greater as Democrats would likely assume Boehner’s position was compromised on the debt ceiling as well. After all, if moderates and conservatives revolt when a shutdown deadline gets close, why wouldn’t they do the same thing for the far more dangerous default deadline?