Every four years, our nation falls under the sway of a tribe of political Brahmins who boast of their ability to tell us who is going to be president, and why. The moment the election is over, the magic spell of the pundit (from Sanskrit: someone who is erudite in various subjects; thanks Wikipedia!) is broken, and we can all wallow in the very wrongness of all but a very few of them. So, to prepare for that lovely moment of schadenpunditfreude, Daily Intel has collected all known predictions by the political chattering class from our Instant Politics participants, the Washington Post, the Awl, the Blaze, and Twitter, among other sources, tabulated by electoral and popular vote prognostications for your convenience.
Whatever happens, make sure to get your gloating in quickily. As Hot Air’s Ed Morrissey told us: “If I’m wrong, this e-mail will self-destruct in five campaign-commercial seconds.”
|
Who Will Win? |
Electoral Votes |
Popular Vote Winner |
Margin of Victory |
Alexis Ohanian |
Obama |
314 |
Obama |
4 |
Ari Fleischer |
Romney |
271 |
|
|
Bhaskar Sunkara |
Obama |
290 |
Obama |
3 |
Buzz Bissinger |
Obama |
317 |
Obama |
2 |
Chris Cillizza |
Obama |
277 |
Obama |
1.6 |
Christina Bellantoni |
Obama |
290 |
Obama |
0.7 |
Cokie Roberts |
Obama |
294 |
tie |
|
David Gergen |
Obama |
|
|
6 |
David Weigel |
Romney |
276 |
Romney |
|
Dick Morris |
Romney |
325 |
|
|
Donna Brazile |
Obama |
313 |
Obama |
4.6 |
Ed Morrissey |
Romney |
311 |
Romney |
4
|
George Will |
Romney |
321 |
Obama |
1.3 |
Glenn Beck |
Romney |
321 |
|
|
Jamelle Bouie |
Obama |
303 |
Obama |
1.5 |
Jennifer Granholm |
Obama |
303 |
|
|
Jim Cramer |
Obama |
440 |
Obama |
10 |
John McWorter |
Obama |
n/a |
Obama |
"a hair or three" |
Josh Barro |
Obama |
305 |
Obama |
2.3 |
Juan Williams |
Obama |
298 |
Romney |
1 |
Karl Rove |
Romney |
279 |
Romney |
3 |
Kevin Eder |
Romney |
281 |
|
|
Larry Kudlow |
Romney |
330 |
|
|
Larry O'Connor |
Romney |
295 |
|
|
Larry Sabato |
Obama |
290 |
Obama |
1 |
Leslie Sanchez |
Romney |
275 |
Romney |
2 |
Markos Moulitsas |
Obama |
303 |
Obama |
2.8 |
Matthew Dowd |
Obama |
303 |
Obama |
0.8 |
Melissa Harris-Perry |
Obama |
290 |
Obama |
3 |
Michael Barone |
Romney |
315 |
|
|
Newt Gingrich |
Romney |
315 |
|
|
Paul Begala |
Obama |
297 |
|
|
Reid Cherlin |
Obama |
285 |
Obama |
3 |
Reid Williams |
Obama |
294 |
Obama |
1.4 |
Robert Reich |
Obama |
285 |
Obama |
4 |
Ron Brownstein |
Obama |
288 |
Obama |
0.6 |
Ezra Klein |
Obama |
290 |
|
|
Steven Rattner |
Obama |
290+ |
|
|
Pat Buchanan |
Romney |
"just over 270" |
|
|
Eleanor Clift |
Obama |
300+ |
|
|
Clarene Page |
Obama |
280 |
|
|
John McLaughlin |
Romney |
281 |
|
|
Sam Wang |
Obama |
332 |
Obama |
2.2% |
Drew Linzer |
Obama |
332 |
|
|
Simon Jackman |
Obama |
332 |
Obama |
1.7% |
Ross Douthat |
Obama |
271 |
Obama |
0.5% |
Ben Domenech |
Romney |
278 |
|
|
Xu Cheng |
Obama |
303 |
|
|
Dean Chambers |
Romney |
275 |
Romney |
1.79 |
Joe Trippi |
Obama |
303 |
|
|
Nate Cohn |
Obama |
270+ |
Obama |
|
Polls |
Economist/YouGov |
Obama |
303 |
Reuters/Ipsos |
Obama |
294 |
Public Policy Polling |
Obama |
332 |
Nate Silver / 538 |
Obama |
307 |
inTrade |
Obama |
303 |