53 Historians Weigh In on Barack Obama’s Legacy
What will the historical verdict be after the news cycles are over?
The Obama History Project
History Will Be Very Kind
By Jonathan ChaitHistory Will Eviscerate Him
By Christopher CaldwellHistorians Weigh In on Obama
The 53 Complete Questionnaires
“It’s a fool’s errand you’re involved in,” warned Pulitzer Prize-winning historian Gordon Wood when approached recently by this magazine to predict Barack Obama’s historical legacy. “We live in a fog, and historians decades from now will tell their society what was happening in 2014. But we don’t know the future. No one in 1952, for example, could have predicted the reputation of Truman a half-century or so later.”
Wood is right, of course. Historians are experts on the past, not the future. But sometimes the wide-angle perspective they inhabit can be useful in understanding the present. And so, on the eve of Obama’s penultimate State of the Union address, we invited a broad range of historians — academic and popular — to play a game.
Over the past few weeks, New York asked more than 50 historians to respond to a broad questionnaire about how Obama and his administration will be viewed 20 years from now. After the day-to-day crises and flare-ups and legislative brinkmanship are forgotten, what will we remember? What, and who, will have mattered most? What small piece of legislation (or executive inaction) will be seen by future generations as more consequential than today’s dominant news stories? What did Obama miss about America? What did we (what will we) miss about him?
Almost every respondent wrote that the fact of his being the first black president will loom large in the historical narrative — though they disagreed in interesting ways. Many predict that what will last is the symbolism of a nonwhite First Family; others, the antagonism Obama’s blackness provoked; still others, the way his racial self-consciousness constrained him. A few suggested that we will care a great deal less about his race generations from now — just as John F. Kennedy’s Catholicism hardly matters to current students of history. Across the board, Obamacare was recognized as a historic triumph (though one historian predicted that, with its market exchanges, it may in retrospect be seen as illiberal and mark the beginning of the privatization of public health care). A surprising number of respondents argued that his rescue of the economy will be judged more significant than is presently acknowledged, however lackluster the recovery has felt. There was more attention paid to China than isis (Obama’s foreign policy received the most divergent assessments), and considerable credit was given to the absence of a major war or terrorist attack, along with a more negative assessment of its price — the expansion of the security state, drones and all. The contributors tilted liberal — that’s academia, no surprise — but we made an effort to create at least a little balance with conservative historians. Their responses often echoed those from the far left: that a president elected on a promise to unite the country instead extended the power of his office in alarming, unprecedented ways. Here, we have published a small fraction of the answers we found most thought-provoking, along with essays by Jonathan Chait, our national-affairs columnist, and Christopher Caldwell, whom we borrowed from The Weekly Standard. A full version of all the historians’ answers can be found here.
“Interesting stuff happens in the fourth quarter,” Obama told his Cabinet last month, shortly after his surprise announcement about restoring diplomatic relations with Cuba. As it happens, this was exactly what a few of our respondents had nominated as the best remaining action Obama could take for his legacy. Before going to press, we let them revise their answers. There will certainly be more interesting stuff, of Obama’s design and not, before January 2017 that will date this project over and over. History is funny that way.
Obama’s presidency was restorative, not transformative.
He was most effective as a “normal” president, and he helped put the presidency back on a human scale. He was a devoted and involved father, a loving husband, a man with acknowledged (albeit minor) vices, and someone who made it clear that he did not regard himself as omniscient. As president, he showed that effective governing requires careful deliberation, discipline, and the willingness to make hard and imperfect decisions, and he let us all watch him do just that. Even when one disagreed with his choices, one knew that his acts were never impulsive or cavalier. Future historians will give him full marks for that.
– Stephen Walt Read the full questionnaireWhat buoyed his aspirations was not a program but a dream that in his person, the people might come together and shape politics to their will and common aspirations. That was what the “we” in the brilliant “Yes We Can” slogan in the 2008 campaign was essentially about. He has not called the nation to new feats of “courage” (Kennedy), to make “war” on poverty (Johnson), even to “dream” more freely than ever before (Reagan). What Obama’s words have called for is for Americans to be the people they already are.
– Daniel Rodgers Read the full questionnaireHis great appeal as a candidate was that he was not interested in traditional politics. That quality, inevitably, has not helped him in Washington. He seems to have the rhetorical and conceptual tools necessary to use the “bully pulpit” power to great effect. Forging a popular coalition, however, requires a galvanizing inspirational agenda. His policies were too moderate to electrify the public.
– Stephen Kinzer Read the full questionnaireIt is difficult to see how his presidency can be viewed as “transformative” when so many of his policies represented a continuation of the past rather than a break.
– Miriam Pawel Read the full questionnaireHis contributions were sometimes remarkable, but Obama’s primary legacy is his destruction of political idealism for the foreseeable future. He proved an impressive steward of the traditions of his party since the 1970s. Where Obama differed was his brief but unforgettable achievement of a surprisingly large consensus around a belief — or delusion — that Americans rarely entertain. Put simply, it was that American politics could and must fundamentally change. The energies he conjured will not reappear soon and are less likely to do so because he summoned them for so ordinary and predictable a set of policies.
– Samuel Moyn Read the full questionnaireI suspect that future historians are likely to focus on the rising inequality in the American economy during the Obama years, the deepening precariousness experienced by people who once anticipated a greater level of security and prosperity, and on the poisonous impact this has on the entire American political system. The crash of 2008 and its aftermath may come to be seen as a moment when greater reform was possible — a resolution to the crisis that placed greater weight on holding the financial system accountable and on aiding middle-class people who were hurt, as well as a chance for the deeper reassessment of the basis of the American economy, an opportunity to pursue policies that could have restored a greater level of equality. This didn’t happen, and it’s the great missed opportunity of the Obama presidency.
– Kimberly Phillips-Fein Read the full questionnaireMany of the young people energized by Obama’s 2008 campaign subsequently became victims of the Great Recession — a devastating event for many young people — and grew disillusioned with politics; this prevented Obama from permanently attaching millennials to the Democratic Party.
– Mason Williams Read the full questionnaireObama’s bark is worse than his bite: He issued 147 executive orders in his first term, compared to Bush’s 173 and Clinton’s 200. Nevertheless, Obama’s rhetoric on executive orders has been so polarizing — “Where I can act without Congress, I’m going to do so.” — that he has inflamed his opponents and strengthened their resolve to reverse his achievements. Just as the Supreme Court unanimously rejected Obama’s efforts to use recess appointments, so it could reject his immigration orders. Throughout history, unilateral presidential actions designed to circumvent Congress have led to pushback in the Courts and Congress that have ultimately undermined, rather than strengthened, the president’s legitimacy.
– Jeffrey Rosen Read the full questionnaireObama has put a giant roadblock in the rightward movement of the United States.
– Jeffrey Alexander Read the full questionnaireOver the next 20 years, Obama’s standing will move from the top of the bottom third to the bottom of the top third of presidents.
– Joseph Ellis Read the full questionnaireNo question on this one: Obama will get much more credit as time passes for saving the U.S. and global economy from a major crash and launching a robust and sustained economic recovery. The question mark will remain how equitable the recovery proves to be.
– Theda Skocpol Read the full questionnaireObama’s establishment of the U.S. Cyber Command in 2009 will likely mark the moment that U.S. global-force projection began a historic shift from the Cold War’s heavy-metal military of aircraft carriers, strategic bombers, and tanks to an agile array via aerospace and cyberspace.
– Alfred McCoy Read the full questionnaireEven though Obama’s recent executive action on immigration has received a great deal of attention, it may have a greater long-term impact than the current political fracas. According to one poll, almost 90 percent of registered Latino voters support the measure. The number of Hispanics in the United States is projected to double by 2060, which means that one-third of the nation’s population will be Hispanic. Obama’s executive action may not only help stabilize the country’s Latino population but also cement much of its loyalty to the Democratic Party.
– Aram Goudzoudian Read the full questionnaireThe Obama years have been a catastrophe for American freedom, perhaps a point of no return. In 2008 it was still possible to imagine that the power-grab of the Bush-Cheney era was reversible. Instead the president has consolidated and expanded the powers of secret government, while offering only token opposition, if that, to the Citizens United decision.
– Mike Davis Read the full questionnairePresident Obama’s actions suggest that he is truly passionate about climate change in a way that we haven’t fully grasped. Clearly he hasn’t done enough. But it’s important to consider how little political incentive Obama has had to do anything. Obama could have easily gotten away with talking soberly about the issue but never really doing anything about it. Instead, he’s done a lot: tough EPA constraints on coal, a meaningful accord with China to cut emissions, serious stimulus spending on clean energy, new emissions standards for cars and trucks. History may well reveal that Obama showed more personal courage on this issue than any other.
– Jonathan Darman Read the full questionnaireOne part of Obama’s first term that’s been almost entirely forgotten already is his tepid endorsement of the Employee Free Choice Act, which helped to consign it to failure and with it any chance for a broadscale revival of the labor movement in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. The continued implosion of the labor movement — especially marked by the assault on public-sector unions, one of the only remaining areas of union strength — will likely be seen as one of the major trends of these years, and Obama’s failure even to treat this as a major problem will be recognized as one of the defining qualities of his style of centrist politics.
– Kimberly Phillips-Fein Read the full questionnairePerhaps Obama’s least-heralded achievement was his effort to prepare the country for its future as a genuinely multiethnic and multicultural society. People of color will soon outnumber white Americans, religious diversity continues to grow, and differences in sexual orientation are increasingly accepted. Obama’s presidency may one day be seen as a watershed in the construction of a genuinely “rainbow” America. But then there’s Ferguson.
– Stephen Walt Read the full questionnaireIt is too soon to say right now what will come of Obama’s “pivot” or rebalancing of American foreign policy to Asia — but for sure, historians will see that during Obama’s administration, the old China policies of the past four decades were quietly, gradually put to rest.
– James Mann Read the full questionnaireWe won’t get a full reckoning of the impact of administrative changes at federal agencies for a while. But here are some hints. Look at the Department of Justice. During the George W. Bush years, many veteran staff attorneys — Republican and Democrat alike — left or were pushed out during a period of intense politicization. The DOJ had arguably never been as partisan as it was during the Bush years. Obama, by contrast, appointed many highly regarded professionals. Those appointees have professionalized the hiring process and reinvigorated many of the DOJ’s divisions. A similar process has played out in the Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Department of Labor.
– Thomas J. Sugrue Read the full questionnaireBill Clinton had the brilliant insight that the Democratic Party could win elections by transforming itself into the Republican Party. Obama might have tried to pull the party back to its New Deal roots but chose not to do so. He will be seen as having had little lasting impact on his party’s identity. The coalition that swept him to power has come apart, largely because it was not undergirded by any clear long-term strategy or goals.
– Stephen Kinzer Read the full questionnaireHere is one historic trend-break that has occurred during the Obama administration that has major significance for the well-being of African-Americans: the beginnings of a decline in the national prison population, after decades of expansion. The Obama administration deserves a fair share of credit. In 2010, Obama signed the Fair Sentencing Act, reducing prison time for convictions involving crack cocaine. Under Attorney General Eric Holder, sentencing guidelines were made retroactive, leading to the release of thousands. To date, the reductions have been small compared to the total incarcerated population, but the reversal is historic, and its disproportionate significance for African-Americans is evident.
– Gavin Wright Read the full questionnaireObama’s efforts on behalf of women and girls are one of the least understood or commonly overlooked aspects of his presidency. From creating the White House Council on Women and Girls to appointing two women to the Supreme Court and a strong team of women leaders to his Cabinet and White House staff, Obama has taken concrete steps to ensure that women’s voices are heard. He has expanded economic opportunities for women, fought pay discrimination, increased women’s access to quality and affordable health care, worked toward combating sexual assault on college campus and in the military, and expanded services for victims of domestic violence and their children.
– Crystal Feimster Read the full questionnaireGood historians pay attention not only to what political figures actively accomplish — wars won, legislation passed — but to what they prevent from happening, a negative but real accomplishment. By that measure, Barack Obama accomplished a lot.
– Mark Lilla Read the full questionnaireEric Holder, because legal developments — from LGBT equality to internal legal opinions about targeted killing, surveillance, and secrecy — are likely to have staying power.
– Mary Dudziak Read the full questionnaireHillary Clinton, of course, assuming that her presidency ends in 2024.
– Robert Williams Read the full questionnaireJohn Brennan, the figure with cardinal-like bearing and hidden influence, who consistently protected the CIA’s interests, both from his job on the National Security Council in the first term and as CIA director in the second.
– James Mann Read the full questionnaireValerie Jarrett, chief insulator and purveyor of “boardroom liberalism.”
– Paul Kahn Read the full questionnaireElizabeth Warren, whose work on consumer protection might seem as important as anything else.
– James Kloppenberg Read the full questionnaireRahm Emanuel, had his hand in everything, not just Obamacare. He was the New Democrat attack dog who did the insider dirty work while Obama tried to rise above, or at least stand back from, the fray.
– Alexander Gourevitch Read the full questionnaireMichelle Obama, the woman who the broader public has come to see as more “authentically black” than any other leader in U.S. history.
– Edward Baptist Read the full questionnaireObama was and wasn’t a black president.
It is hard to think of anything he actually did where the fact that he was black, rather than the fact that he was a moderate Democratic president, seemed to matter. If anything, the fact that he is black but was primarily a moderate American president will be seen as evidence for how much the institution makes the man, not the other way around.
– Alexander Gourevitch Read the full questionnaireOne theme dominates American history from its origins to this morning’s news — the consequences, and how to deal with them, of the importation into the United States of Africans as slaves. President Barack Obama is not a descendant of slaves, but he is black, and that fact has unloosed or perhaps only illuminated a renewed white political resistance to racial equality that future historians will record as the third phase of the struggle by white Americans to retain political and social control. The first phase, centering on the question of slavery, extended from the counting of black slaves as three-fifths of a man in the Constitution of 1787 through ratification of the 13th Amendment banning slavery in 1865. The second phase, triggered by white shock at the social revolution implicit in the end of slavery, centered on white use of vigilante terror and control of the courts to deny political and civil rights for black Americans. Soon after the civil-rights acts of the 1960s ended the second phase, a third emerged, triggered by white shock at the fact of black legal and political equality. The first line of white defense in each phase has been denial—denial in the first phase that slavery was cruel, exploitive, and wrong, and denial in the second phase that lynching, Jim Crow laws, and whites-only primaries were intended to control African-Americans. In the third phase, it is denied that implacable Republican hostility to Obama has anything to do with race; that the all-Republican South, like the all-Democratic South which preceded it, is primarily an instrument of white control; that voter-ID laws are aimed at blocking votes by blacks and Hispanics, and that the predominance of white men voting Republican (64 percent in the midterm elections) is explained by race. History suggests that it takes roughly 50 years for denial to run its course; after that, everybody will know what the struggle is about, and no historian will blame it on Obama.
– Thomas Powers Read the full questionnaireThe president’s blackness will matter a great deal, mainly because I think it shaped how many Americans viewed him and gave ammunition to his opposition. And on the other hand, I think Obama’s being black will influence the way that young people see the world. Having a black family living in the White House is important symbolically, as it suggests that the United States is not a “white” nation.
– Annette Gordon-Reed Read the full questionnaireTo any historian with a long view, Obama’s election and (don’t forget) reelection will be seen as another sign of the declining significance of race over the past 50 years. No one sees that today. We’re constantly told that we need to “talk about race,” and then talk about talking about it. But the Obama years will be remembered as the period when class, and not race, became the great social cleavage in early-21st-century America.
– Mark Lilla Read the full questionnaireObama’s blackness will matter largely as a continuing excuse for national self-congratulation, at least among the punditocracy. To historians, Obama’s being black may also help explain his timidity on policy matters, his willingness to conform to the Washington conventional wisdom.
– Jackson Lears Read the full questionnaireThe GOP moves will be seen as the main way that race mattered in this period and will become a stinging source of regret and shame to almost all Americans, including to most future Republicans.
– Theda Skocpol Read the full questionnaireObama catches hell because he represents black power even more than because he incarnates black power.
– Edward Baptist Read the full questionnaireThe fact that he was the first black elected as president will always be the most astonishing thing about his presidency to most Americans of all races 20 years from now. And most interestingly, his name and his presidency will be used by those on both sides of that divide as proof of their argument as to whether we still have a long way to go or we’ve finally arrived.
– Robert Williams Read the full questionnaireHow much did it matter that John F. Kennedy was Catholic? It mattered in the sense that after his election, being Catholic no longer constituted a barrier to the presidency. Yet JFK’s entry into the White House did not substantively affect the status of Catholics in the United States. Much the same is likely to be true with regard to African-Americans and Obama.
– Andrew Bacevich Read the full questionnaireI suspect that President Obama’s race will ultimately seem akin to President Kennedy’s religion. Each will certainly be remembered for their pioneering role, but upon closer inspection it’s clear that neither of them wanted to be remembered primarily (or even partially) for the breakthrough he embodied. On the campaign trail, each candidate understood that his unique background attracted many voters but threatened to alienate even more. Accordingly, each sought to avoid the issue until circumstances dictated that they confront it directly. When his opponents worried openly that he would take orders from the Vatican, Kennedy made a major speech in 1960 to assure panicked Protestants that he would show no religious favoritism. “I am not the Catholic candidate for president,” he insisted. “I am the Democratic Party’s candidate for president, who happens also to be Catholic.” Obama likewise downplayed race in 2008 until Jeremiah Wright forced his hand. He then delivered a similar speech, assuring white voters that he would not display any racial favoritism as president. Once in office, both presidents went to great lengths to prove those claims. Obama steered clear of anything that could be construed as “special treatment” for racial minorities, taking a lighter touch with issues of race relations than the previous two white occupants of the White House had. “I can’t pass laws that say I’m just helping black folks,” he said. “I’m the president of the United States.” Critics still see racial motivations in virtually everything he does. But as the contrast between the paranoia of such critics and the plainness of Obama’s actions becomes clear to Americans over time, the power of racism will be diminished – much as the power of religious bigotry was after Kennedy’s presidency.
– Kevin Kruse Read the full questionnaireThe post-civil-rights racial order is coming undone on Obama’s watch. Thanks to affirmative action and the normalization of values of diversity within elite institutions, the country has more racial and gender inclusivity at the top than perhaps at any other time in its history. At the same time, a racially disparate criminal-punishment system will, under current trends, lock up one in three black men during the course of his lifetime. The contradiction Obama embodies—“one black man in the White House; 1 million black men in the big house”—has something to do with this.
– Nikhil Singh Read the full questionnaireIf Obama’s presidency is remembered as the moment when America finally elected a black president and began, in the aftermath of his presidency, to face up to how much of the criticism he received while in the White House was racially motivated, then his election will appear to have been an early signal of a historic change. If, as seems much more likely in the wake of Ferguson, America continues to ignore the legacy and the present consequences of centuries of racism, and if the U.S. remains as deeply divided by race as it has been since the origin of slavery, then his election will appear an anomaly, a fluke made possible by the Great Recession.
– James Kloppenberg Read the full questionnaireAnyone who expected Obama to take strong positions on racial inequality was not paying attention to his speeches and writing well before he entered the White House, or his rhetoric on the campaign trail. Over his entire career, he has mostly avoided racial controversies unless circumstances forced him to do so. He has offered up uplifting bromides about racial reconciliation, but mostly asserted that discrimination and injustice are residual. Part of Obama’s blandness on race has to do with political calculation. Every time Obama mentions race, even in passing, it becomes national news. Critics on the right accuse him “playing the race card,” of “hating white people,” of being “divisive.” In the end, the fact that the United States elected a black president might have narrowed the possibilities for addressing ongoing racial inequalities in the United States.
– Thomas Sugrue Read the full questionnaireIt’s not just that Obama is the first black head of state in the U.S. but the first one in Western society. I believe Tony Blair once commented, “I’m not sure this could happen in the U.K.,” and I think he was right. Slavery is clearly America’s spiritual holocaust — a collective trauma whose effects are still being worked out. No one can think back on the days of his European tours and first inauguration without realizing just how shocking and transformative his election was for American society. Does Lincoln’s Gettysburg Address still matter? His second inaugural? These were pivotal moments in American history, and so is Obama’s election. It can only happen once, and, as such, will never be forgotten.
– Harry Stout Read the full questionnaireSmart undergrads now being born will have to work to understand why we think Obama’s color has much to do with how we rate his accomplishments in office.
– John McWhorter Read the full questionnaireThe first African-American president largely ignored left-behind black people. He saved GM but not Detroit.
– Mike Davis Read the full questionnaireHis Grant Park acceptance speech: a triumphal moment for all Americans that began our collective redemption from the curse of slavery upon this continent.
– Alfred McCoy Read the full questionnairePhoto: Joe Raedle/Getty ImagesI can only hope it is the picture of him with his defense team in the bunker waiting for news about the strike against bin Laden. That was his shining moment.
– Mark Lilla Read the full questionnairePhoto: Pete Souza, Courtesy of the White HouseThe time he invited Bill Clinton to brief the press, and then left, while Clinton happily yakked away. (Okay, not the most lasting, but a highly symbolic one.)
– David Greenberg Read the full questionnairePhoto: Jim Young/ReutersWhen Joe Wilson yelled “You lie!” during the 2009 State of the Union: a cheap, nasty, and disrespectful moment and a depressing emblem of the era in which Obama has governed.
– Aram Goudsouzian Read the full questionnaire Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty ImagesIt was the moment at which gridlock became institutionalized.
We are now at a point where the institutional inertia of our political organization will regularly produce divided government. Future historians will not blame Obama because there will be no illusion that more could have been done. The country will come together in emergencies – particularly foreign crises – but the federal government will remain dysfunctional for the most part. State and local governments will become more important in response. Some will have resources to move forward; others will be starved for resources. This will produce a country of even greater regional differences as some areas develop and others are left behind. Major problems of a national scope will not be addressed or they will be addressed only with half measures unlikely to succeed.
– Paul Kahn Read the full questionnaireThere is nothing especially new about these gridlocks and hatreds. George Bush had his haters, and so did Bill Clinton. I do believe that Obama’s race serves as an inner accelerator for the hatreds, but no more so than Bush’s invasion of Iraq.
– Harry Stout Read the full questionnaireIf historians can contribute anything, it is an insistence that the constraints Obama inherited are genuine — not just something exaggerated by his apologists and scored by his critics — and are truly massive when contrasted with those faced by Franklin Roosevelt when he came into office in 1933.
– David Hollinger Read the full questionnaireI question the assumption that Republicans were guilty of “obstructionism.” There are strong arguments that Congress owes the president some deference on matters that are especially close to his constitutional authority, such as foreign affairs and appointments. But it has no duty to pass his bills on core issues of legislative responsibility, particularly taxing and spending. Rather than partisan opposition, the real story is the shrinking of the legislative branch, in favor of a model of governing in which Congress passes vague enabling statutes and leaves executive agencies to work out the content of the law.
– Samuel Goldman Read the full questionnaireSocial media and the internet have allowed the hard right to focus their message in a way that would have been impossible in what will seem more obviously an “antique” time before the web. We today do not perceive this as vividly as we might, because those of us over about 40 do not live 24/7 online/cloud as deeply as those younger than us. No 20-something Reddit fan wonders why a smart professional black Adlai Stevenson such as Obama hasn’t been able to marginalize mean right-wingers; they would only wonder why anyone would expect, given the ready platform any bozo has, such a thing.
– John McWhorter Read the full questionnaireI did not accept his messianic campaign rhetoric at face value, but I did believe that he promised genuine deliverance from the coup d’état that was unfolding under the Bush administration. What a fantasy that hope proved to be. Obama’s unconstitutional aggrandizement of executive power constitutes his most serious failure of leadership.
– Jackson Lears Read the full questionnaireFor better or worse, most presidents are judged on what they accomplish, not on how much they might have accomplished if Congress had decided to cooperate. Despite more difficult circumstances, Obama is unlikely to get a pass when measured against Roosevelt and Johnson.
– Beverly Gage Read the full questionnaireHistorians do Obama a disservice when they implicitly compare him to LBJ. There have not been many social movements of the left during the Obama years, movements that provide exterior power to push him, and which he can co-opt with progressive reforms in a manner that legitimates him with the center. In a sense, Obama has had to have been his own social movement, and this puts him in vulnerable territory. The exceptions — the gay and lesbian movements and the Hispanic mobilization around immigration — show exactly what I mean, for in these areas Obama has been demonstrably responsive.
– Jeffrey Alexander Read the full questionnaireA relevant comparison in foreign policy is Eisenhower:
damned from the right-wing pulpits of his day for not “rolling back” communism, but now much admired for presiding over a decade of peace.
– David Kennedy Read the full questionnaireObama’s foreign policy commenced with soaring but uncertain rhetoric. When the lighter elements boiled away, what was left was a coping strategy, which proved to be more about coping than about strategy. Historians will praise Obama’s foreign policy as better than Bush’s, which it was not, but that will be their own way of coping with the long, disappointing post-Reagan era of American statecraft.
– Charles Kesler Read the full questionnaireObama will be viewed as the first president to take seriously the notion that the dominant role America has played in the world both after World War II and again after the end of the Cold War cannot be maintained over the long term. In that sense, he was ahead of his time.
– James Mann Read the full questionnaireWe’re just now beginning to see how Obama has been moving the country into a postimperial foreign policy, which involves a willingness to talk to partners and enemies alike. The right wanted to keep military force in Iraq and demanded we put boots on the ground in Ukraine. Instead, we’ve seen Obama do a jujitsu with Iraqi internal politics, turning lemon into power-sharing lemonade, and work with the Europeans behind the scenes. I haven’t heard anyone talk about China’s move toward soft power, and what a vital pivot away from aggressive military brinkmanship this represents. But it’s entirely to Obama’s credit. He has forged military and economic alliances with China’s neighbors even as he has continued to engage the Chinese leadership, telling them the U.S. supports China’s “peaceful rise.” The enormously significant announcement of China-U.S. cooperation on global warming is an indication of how Obama’s quiet “talking” diplomacy has born results.
– Jeffrey Alexander Read the full questionnaireChina policy may turn out to be Obama’s greatest foreign-policy failure, next to the Middle East. Obama had the opportunity to forge a closer, more collaborative relationship with Beijing but failed to do so. The mood is dark, and both sides now seem to be seeking new ways to out-circle the other.
– Gordon Chang Read the full questionnaireObama’s major achievement will be the recovery of a bilateral approach to foreign policy after the Bush-Cheney years of unilateralism, the improvement of our relationship with Western allies, the opening of diplomatic relations with Cuba, and the toning down of the fear-based hysteria about terrorism.
– Joseph Ellis Read the full questionnaireHe promised a responsible end to the Iraq War, victory in Afghanistan, a fresh start on relations with the Islamic world, an end to the Israeli-Palestinian dispute, a “reset” with Russia, and a “pivot” toward Asia that would somehow ease American nervousness about a rising China. Thus far he’s hitless in six at bats. Obama’s biggest mistake was to overpromise. His second mistake was to surround himself with lackluster subordinates.
– Andrew Bacevich Read the full questionnaireIn time, historians will see how significant Obama’s lack of prior experience in foreign affairs was. Americans now distrust experience. They assume that all we need in our leaders is fresh eyes and a soul unsullied by the Beltway or the U.N. Our best and brightest do not go into the diplomatic core, our congressional foreign-policy committees are chaired by provincials, and the National Security Council is staffed with area specialists. No one has enough experience or the temperament to take the long view and see the big picture. President Obama was no different. He did not have enough experience to draw on to articulate his own distinctive approach to foreign affairs, leaving the American public and the world in the dark about his intentions and capacities. The evaporation of his “red line” in Syria says it all. What would his foreign-policy record have been had he stayed in the Senate for one or two more terms before becoming president? That is the interesting counterfactual question.
– Mark Lilla Read the full questionnaireObama came to the presidency with savvy instincts in foreign affairs. And he succeeded in winding down two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that were taking a severe toll on America in terms of both blood and treasure. But then he got dragged back into the Middle East by the so-called experts in the foreign-policy Establishment who whined incessantly that he was not doing enough about the Syrian civil war and the rise of ISIS. And yet, the tragedy is that two decades from now, no one will remember ISIS or whatever happens to the brutal Assad regime. But they will remember what Obama failed to do in Israel/Palestine.
– Kai Bird Read the full questionnaireThe most lasting legacy of this administration will be the “pivot” to Iran — away from Israel. Everything that has happened in the Middle East since 2001, including the unnecessary wars and “surges,” has magnified Iran’s importance from the standpoint of U.S. national interests and, to the same extent, diminished Israel’s significance.
– James Livingston Read the full questionnaireIf Obama can leave office without any substantial U.S. military engagement in the Middle East, that will be his greatest foreign-policy legacy. He will be seen as the president who finally realized that this 70-year engagement has encouraged tyranny, crippled Arab societies, and exposed the U.S. to profound new threats. Breaking the cycle of intervening, withdrawing, and then returning to clean up the mess would be truly epochal.
– Stephen Kinzer Read the full questionnaireIt is probably not accidental that the Arab Spring first occurred during a relative lull in American intervention in the Middle East. However badly Obama responded to those democratic movements once they broke out, prior to that he had turned American politics from foreign policy to domestic. That move left greater degrees of freedom for democratic movements to put pressure on their own autocratic governments without being smeared with the accusation of being agents of imperialism. That can hardly have been Obama’s intention, but it does seem to me a consequence of his foreign policy at that time, and a factor that will be clearer in time and can fairly be judged as positive.
– Alexander Gourevitch Read the full questionnaireHistorians will be more charitable to the Obama foreign policy than are contemporary commentators, if only because historians will spend more time thinking about Obama’s predecessor.
– Jonathan Darman Read the full questionnaireProsecute those American officials that tortured detainees and publicly censured their enablers such as CIA officials and legal theorists.
– Joyce Appleby Read the full questionnairePardon the Bush administration for torture. This would avoid a messy trial but confirm what any non-biased observer would recognize: namely, torture when they see it.
– Harry Stout Read the full questionnairePardon Edward Snowden! Such executive action would acknowledge the dangers that the homeland-terror-surveillance state poses to a democratic way of life — even more so than Eisenhower’s belated, if oft-cited, warnings about the rise of the military-industrial complex more than half a century ago.
– Nikhil Singh Read the full questionnaireOne more speech about race in the wake of Ferguson, Garner, et al. I am sure such a speech would be ridiculed. There is so much bad faith out there. But if done the right way, it would help to shape his legacy.
– Annette Gordon-Reed Read the full questionnaireMake large scale and imaginative use of his power, sponsoring the pardoning of many tens of thousands of nonviolent prisoners. If he established a major new parole program, it might acquire momentum that a successor would feel it necessary to endorse.
– Robin Blackburn Read the full questionnaireA radical transformation of criminal-justice policy.
– Matthew Lassiter Read the full questionnaireJust say he made a mistake talking about meritocracy and claiming that everyone getting a college degree is the key to success, job security, and middle-class life. It would make a difference if Obama were simply to recognize America’s class structure and say explicitly that those who didn’t get an education do not deserve their underpaid, insecure employment.
– Alexander Gourevitch Read the full questionnaireA bold action to free the current generation from its crippling college debt.
– Miriam Pawel Read the full questionnaireTalk to us — tell us what he is aiming at, what our challenges are, especially abroad. He may be our mutest president.
– Mark Lilla Read the full questionnaire“Unlike JFK, Obama did not so much craft an image as attempt to make himself a cipher onto which everyone could project their own fantasies.”
– Alexander Gourevitch Photo: Pete Souza, Courtesy of the White HouseThe Historians
- Jeffrey Alexander, Yale University, co-author of Obama Power (2014)
- Joyce Appleby, UCLA, author of The Relentless Revolution: A History of Capitalism (2011)
- Andrew Bacevich, Boston University, author of The New American Militarism: How Americans Are Seduced by War (2005)
- Edward Baptist, Cornell University, author of The Half Has Never Been Told: Slavery and the Making of American Capitalism (2014)
- Kai Bird, author of The Good Spy: The Life and Death of Robert Ames (2014)
- Robin Blackburn, author of The American Crucible: Slavery, Emancipation, and Human Rights (2011)
- Gordon Chang, Stanford University, author of Chinese American Voices (2006)
- Jonathan Darman, author of Landslide: LBJ and Reagan at the Dawn of a New America (2014)
- Mike Davis, UC Riverside, author of City of Quartz (1990) and Planet of Slums (2006)
- Mary Dudziak, Emory University School of Law, author of Cold War Civil Rights: Race and the Image of American Democracy (2011)
- Joseph Ellis, author of Revolutionary Summer: The Birth of American Independence (2013)
- Crystal Feimster, Yale University, author of Southern Horrors: Women and the Politics of Southern Rape and Lynching (2009)
- Beverly Gage, Yale University, author of The Day Wall Street Exploded: A Story of America in Its First Age of Terror (2009)
- Samuel Goldman, the George Washington University, writer for The American Conservative
- Annette Gordon-Reed, Harvard Law School, author of The Hemingses of Monticello: An American Family (2008)
- Aram Goudsouzian, University of Memphis, author of Down to the Crossroads: Civil Rights, Black Power, and the Meredith March Against Fear (2014)
- Alexander Gourevitch, Brown University, author of From Slavery to the Cooperative Commonwealth (2014)
- David Greenberg, Rutgers University, author of NixonÕs Shadow: The History of an Image (2003)
- David Hollinger, UC Berkeley, author of After Cloven Tongues of Fire: Protestant Liberalism in Modern American History (2013)
- Thomas Holt, University of Chicago, author of Children of Fire: A History of African Americans (2010)
- Paul Kahn, Yale Law School, author of Putting Liberalism in Its Place (2004)
- David Kennedy, Stanford University, author of Freedom From Fear: The American People in Depression and War, 1929-1945 (1999)
- Charles Kesler, Claremont McKenna College, editor of the Claremont Review of Books, author of I Am the Change: Barack Obama and the Future of Liberalism (2012)
- Stephen Kinzer, Brown University, author of The Brothers: John Foster Dulles, Allen Dulles, and Their Secret World War (2013)
- James Kloppenberg, Harvard University, author of Reading Obama: Dreams, Hope, and the American Political Tradition (2011)
- Kevin Kruse, Princeton University, author of White Flight: Atlanta and the Making of Modern Conservatism (2005)
- Matthew Lassiter, University of Michigan, author of The Silent Majority: Suburban Politics in the Sunbelt South (2006)
- Jackson Lears, Rutgers University, editor of Raritan, author of Rebirth of a Nation: The Making of Modern America 1877-1920 (2009)
- Jill Lepore, Harvard University, author of The Story of America: Essays on Origins (2012)
- Mark Lilla, Columbia University, author of The Stillborn God: Religion, Politics, and the Modern West (2007)
- James Livingston, Rutgers University, author of Against Thrift: Why Consumer Culture Is Good for the Economy, the Environment, and Your Soul (2011)
- James Mann, author of The Obamians: The Struggle Inside the White House to Redefine American Power (2012)
- Alfred McCoy, University of Wisconsin-Madison, author of Torture and Impunity: The U.S. Doctrine of Coercive Interrogation (2012)
- Lisa McGirr, Harvard University, author of Suburban Warriors: The Origins of the New American Right (2002)
- John McWhorter, Columbia University, author of Losing the Race: Self-Sabotage in Black America (2000)
- Samuel Moyn, Harvard Law School, author of The Last Utopia: Human Rights in History (2010)
- Khalil Gilbran Muhummad, director of the Schomberg Center for Research in Black Culture, author of The Condemnation of Blackness: Race, Crime, and the Making of Modern America (2011)
- Nell Painter, Princeton University, author of The History of White People (2010)
- Miriam Pawel, author of The Crusades of Cesar Chavez: A Biography (2014)
- Kimberly Phillips-Fein, NYU, author of Invisible Hands: The BusinessmenÕs Crusade Against the New Deal (2009)
- Thomas Powers, author of The Killing of Crazy Horse (2011)
- Daniel Rodgers, Princeton University, author of The Age of Fracture (2011)
- Jeffrey Rosen, The George Washington University Law School, author of The Unwanted Gaze: The Destruction of Privacy in America (2000)
- Stephen Sestanovich, Council on Foreign Relations, author of Maximalist: America in the World From Truman to Obama (2014)
- Theda Skocpol, Harvard University, co-author of The Tea Party and the Remaking of Republican Conservatism (2012)
- Nikhil Singh, NYU, author of Black Is a Country: Race and the Unfinished Struggle for Democracy (2005)
- Harry Stout, Yale University, author of Upon the Altar of the Nation: A Moral History of the Civil War (2007)
- Thomas Sugrue, University of Pennsylvania, author of The Origins of the Urban Crisis: Race and Inequality in Postwar Detroit (reissued 2014)
- Jeffrey Tulis, University of Texas, author of The Rhetorical Presidency (1987)
- Stephen Walt, Harvard University, co-author of The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy (2007)
- Mason Williams, Williams College, author of City of Ambition: FDR, La Guardia, and the Making of Modern New York (2013)
- Robert Williams, University of Arizona College of Law, author of The American Indian in Western Legal Thought (1990)
- Gavin Wright, Stanford University, author of Sharing the Prize: The Economics of the Civil Rights Revolution in the American South (2013)
The survey was conducted by Thomas Meaney of the Columbia University history department.
*This article appears in the January 12, 2015 issue of New York Magazine.