The wizards at the Cook Political Report have now “called” 431 of 435 U.S. House races. Democrats have won 222 seats in the 117th Congress, while Republicans have won 209, narrowing the Democratic majority, with four races still undecided. Here’s a brief overview of the outstanding contests:
CA-21: Republican trying to win comeback
In this San Joaquin Valley district that runs from Fresno to Bakersfield, former Republican congressman David Valadeo has a 1,796 vote lead over the Democrat who upset him in 2018, T.J. Cox. California is accepting mail ballots postmarked by Election Day until November 20, and some of the vote is likely to be from a Democratic stronghold, so the race has not been called.
CA-25: A special election rematch
This highly competitive district that includes portions of Ventura and Los Angeles County was wrested away by Democrat Katie Hill in 2018, and then won back by Republican Mike Garcia in a May 2020 special election when Hill resigned following a scandal over an alleged relationship with a campaign staffer. The Democrat that Garcia defeated, Christy Smith, is now locked in a very close race, with Garcia leading by 422 votes and as the final mail ballots trickle in.
IA-02: Recount pending
Democratic Congressman Dave Loebsack left his seat in southeastern Iowa open this year. Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democrat Rita Hart by 47 votes, with recounts underway in at least one and probably then in other counties in the district. Miller-Meeks has claimed victory but it’s far too close to be called. Republicans have already flipped one House seat in Iowa this year.
NY-22: A rematch coming down to the wire
An upstate New York district in which Democrat Andrew Brindisi narrowly defeated Republican incumbent Claudia Tenney in 2018 featured a rematch this year. A slow count of mail ballots that will likely tilt Democratic has was complicated by court challenges of the count by both candidates. Tenney currently leads by 75 votes.
