Can Going Negative Win Over Voters Who Hate Trump and Biden?

Maybe Uncle Joe should get angrier than he was during the SOTU address. Photo: Shawn Thew/EPA/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Joe Biden’s reelection campaign has two big tasks: improving the president’s low job-approval ratings by boosting public perception of how well the country is doing, particularly the economy, and making 2024 at least in part a “comparative” election by drawing attention to the many things about Donald Trump that should alarm persuadable voters. Biden’s 2024 State of the Union address reflected that strategy almost perfectly: The president relentlessly contrasted his accomplishments and goals with what Trump — or as he called him, “My predecessor” — did or wants to do. The idea is to keep up this double-barreled approach right up until November 5.

But there’s a complication: the so-called “double haters” in the electorate who dislike both Biden and Trump. It’s now gospel that Trump’s upset win over Hillary Clinton was significantly attributable to his 17-point lead among double haters, who made up 18 percent of the electorate in 2016. Trump again won these grumpy people in 2020, but they dropped to a mere 3 percent of the electorate then. Unfortunately for the incumbent president, polls are showing the size of the “I hate everybody” vote ballooning again.

According to veteran pollster Stan Greenberg and Democratic consultant Page Gardner, double haters made up 23 percent of the electorate in a battleground survey they conducted at the end of 2023. And the thing to understand about them this particular year is that they are “wrong track” voters: An incredible 91 percent of those who dislike both major-party candidates think the country is going in the wrong direction, and at this point, 55 percent of them intend to vote for a third-party or independent candidate. So there’s only so much Biden can do to make them turn frowns upside down in assessing his job performance. Greenberg and Gardner wrote in The American Prospect:

The expanded Child Tax Credit, for example, expired and many reductions in prescription drug prices are anticipated in the future. Working people saw bigger wage gains under Trump; consumer confidence is still 20 points below its level when Biden took office; and by a wide margin, “dual haters” think Trump will help more than Biden in ensuring wages keep up with prices. They give the Republicans a 33-point advantage on “getting things done.”

So, Greenberg and Gardner argue, Biden needs to double down on intensifying the hate these voters already feel toward Trump and his party, particularly on issues like abortion and the extremism of the white supremacists and other shady elements of the MAGA movement. But just as important, Team Biden should spread the anger inducement around to include the GOP’s corporate and billionaire allies, who could bear some of the blame now being assigned to Biden for inflation and other economic worries:

A stunning 67 percent of the “dual haters” cite “inflation and the cost of living.” That is 22 points higher than the next-mentioned problem. In his State of the Union address, the president chose to be indirect, making no mention of high prices but talking about cutting taxes and lowering drug prices and health care premiums …

At some point, President Biden [must] lament the high prices, feel their pain, and express his anger at the giant companies’ super-profits and how they are not cutting prices or raising wages. Voters suffered through the pandemic while the corporations increased their bottom lines and CEO pay. That might get voters’ heads nodding and listening to Biden again.

Still, as the State of the Union address showed, there’s a lot to be said for a feisty, partisan, and ideologically sharp assault on the opposition that not only reminds skeptical Americans the president is “on their side” but indirectly addresses concerns about his vigor and sensitivity to voter unhappiness. It may be impossible for Biden to win over double haters with a positive message that isn’t closely related to an identification with their fears and suspicions. But given the angst Biden’s party base currently feels about a prospective Trump comeback and vengeance tour, turning up the heat a bit to mobilize that base will likely prove necessary. So perhaps Uncle Joe should let it rip more often.