On Saturday, the 2024 presidential election was rattled by an assassination attempt on Republican nominee Donald Trump just days before the Republican National Convention was set to begin. The violent incident seems to have halted the public push from Democrats to replace President Joe Biden on the ticket before November, though questions about his viability linger behind closed doors. In the most recent episode of the Pivot podcast, Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway spoke with David Plouffe, Democratic strategist and former 2008 campaign manager for Barack Obama, about the impact that the attempt on Trump’s life will have on the race and how the party should look at the Biden question.
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Swisher: Before the shooting, all eyes were on Biden. That was the story. Do Democrats still try to get him to step aside? Is that still an ongoing debate? I know your former partner, David Axelrod, is working at this.
Plouffe: Well, it’s a great question. I think it freezes for a little bit, and last week seemed like 12 weeks. There was part of last week where it looked like Biden had settled things down. Then a bunch of people came out against him. Then, after the press conference, people like James Clyburn said, “Okay, I’m fully for Biden.” So I think he’s probably going to survive this. But to me, this is healthy.
Swisher: He’s a little livelier, isn’t he?
Plouffe: Well, my point is this is a big decision for the country and our party. And then there’s what he said in the press conference — “If my team tells me I can’t win, I won’t run.” Now, Jen O’Malley Dillon, I can speak to. I know her very well. I’m sure she’s telling Biden exactly where the race stands. I can’t speak to other people; I hope they are as well. He’s losing. He was losing pre-debate. He’s losing now. Would you say it’s impossible for Joe Biden to win? You’ll never say that. So I think he’ll hold on to that, and he has defied history in the past. But Donald Trump right now has probably a three-to-five point lead in the battleground states. In a couple of states out West, maybe a little bit more than that. That’s deeply concerning.
Does that mean Kamala Harris or another Democrat would automatically switch that? No. There’s risk in any situation here. But you got to understand what caused a lot of the unrest last week was Democrats running for the Senate and running for the House got their own polls back, and they didn’t like what they saw because Biden has slipped. And a lot of them can probably perform two-to-four points better than Biden, but they can’t overcome Biden losing eight-to-ten points. There’s been a poll suggesting New York and California are a lot closer than we’d like, and if we don’t have the top of the ticket doing well enough in those states, we won’t win the House. Which could be really important in a scenario where Trump were to win, sadly.
So I think the conversation will continue. But the other thing is Joe Biden is going to do some interviews this week. Even though the campaign’s curtailing their activity, he’s in this unenviable position where every public appearance is going to be judged really intensely. And there’s clearly, if he has another really bad moment, I think there’ll be more Democrats to come out and say he ought to withdraw. But the clock’s ticking here, Kara. We got a couple of weeks, probably.
Swisher: And do you think that’s a good thing?
Plouffe: Well, it’s just the calendar. We don’t need to do the roll call virtually anymore, so I don’t see why we would do that. Let’s let it go to August. But at the end of the day, we do have to get on with winning the race. And if it’s Joe Biden, what I think you’ll see is even Democrats who said they wished he wouldn’t run will get onboard. I think he’ll have surrogates in the battleground states. They’ll have people in ads for them making the case. But Democrats should make no mistake. It brings me real pain to say this: This is the worst position a Democratic presidential candidate has been in since 1988. That’s just a fact.
That was Bush-Dukakis, where Dukakis actually led, but once we got into the summer, Bush opened up a lead. Doesn’t mean Joe Biden can’t win. But what drives me crazy is when people suggest that “Well, it’s bad polls” or “Look at this poll.” We’ve got to deal with truth here. It’s not just the polls. His approval rating is in the mid 30s; almost 80 percent of the electorate’s not sure he is up for the job. He’s got to answer those questions.
This interview has been edited and lightly condensed for clarity.
