The House of Representatives voted Saturday to pass a $95 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan — which may yet trigger an attempt from hard-right Republicans to once again oust their Speaker of the House. Republican Mike Johnson, who needed the support of Democrats to get the package over the finish line, is facing an enormous test of his leadership. Here’s how it all went down.
He pushed through Ukraine aid despite losing the support of the majority of the House Republican Conference on Saturday afternoon, but the threat to his tenure in office still remains. The question now is what happens once everyone gets back to Capitol Hill in May.
Marjorie Taylor Greene, who introduced a motion to vacate in March, still isn’t yet ready to trigger it. However, with two Republicans already signing on and plenty of other hard-right members flirting with the idea of ousting him, Johnson will likely face a vote for his job sooner rather than later.
With members of Congress out on recess, the other question now is how much pressure they’ll face to can Johnson. Traditional right wing media is still backing him — MTG railed at a Fox News reporter over an op-ed the outlet ran calling her an idiot — but MAGA media feels differently. Steve Bannon has endorsed giving Johnson the axe, and Breitbart ran an op-ed on Saturday calling for the same. The pressure campaign against the speaker will be waged in Facebook comments and Twitter and Truth Social posts in the coming days as Republicans see just how angry the conservative grassroots is over Ukraine.
Even with a massive rebellion, Johnson is still likely to keep his office. Many Democrats have made clear that they don’t want the GOP to oust him for his support for Ukraine aid. But the more conservatives revolt against Johnson, the more he will need those Democrats to save him.
I wrote about how Johnson decided to go this route here.
At the Atlantic, David Frum applauds the fact that the former president’s anti-Ukraine influence didn’t work this time:
On aid to Ukraine, Trump got his way for 16 months. When Democrats held the majority in the House of Representatives in 2022, they approved four separate aid requests for Ukraine, totaling $74 billion. As soon as Trump’s party took control of the House, in January 2023, the aid stopped. Every Republican officeholder understood: Those who wished to show loyalty to Trump must side against Ukraine. …
To make an avalanche takes more than one tumbling rock. Still, the pro-Ukraine, anti-Trump vote in the House is a very, very big rock. On something that mattered intensely to him—that had become a badge of pro-Trump identity—Trump’s own party worked with Democrats in the House and Senate to hand him a stinging defeat. This example could become contagious.
Even though the Ukraine bill has passed the House, there still is another legislative chamber to deal with and, because the Senate is the Senate, it doesn’t seem like it will be able to do so until Tuesday.
House Republican opponents of Mike Johnson are already using the ardent Democratic celebration of the passage of Ukraine aid against him:
If it happens it won’t be until after the recess, but she also called Johnson a “lame duck”:
“We have a very robust logistics network that enables us to move material very quickly,” [Pentagon press secretary Pat Ryder] told reporters this past week. “We can move within days.”
The Pentagon has had supplies ready to go for months but hasn’t moved them because it is out of money. It has already spent all of the funding Congress had previously provided to support Ukraine, sending more than $44 billion worth of weapons, maintenance, training and spare parts since Russia’s February 2022 invasion. By December, the Pentagon was $10 billion in the hole, because it is going to cost more now to replace the systems it sent to the battlefield in Ukraine.
As a result, the Pentagon’s frequent aid packages for Ukraine dried up because there’s been no guarantee Congress would pass the additional funding needed to replenish the weapons the U.S. has been sending to Ukraine. The legislation would include more than $20 billion to restock the Pentagon’s shelves and ensure that the military services have what they need to fight and protect America. The lag in weapons deliveries has forced Ukrainian troops to spend months rationing their dwindling supply of munitions.
The fourth and final bill providing aid to Israel passes 366 to 58. There were only 37 Democrats and 21 Republicans opposed to the legislation. It was followed by applause from both sides of the chamber.
Aid to Israel had long been caught up in partisan wrangling. It’s worth remembering that when Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, the House was without a Speaker due to McCarthy’s ouster.
The Ukrainian leader praised the vote — and Speaker Mike Johnson — in a post on X:
The $61 billon Ukraine aid package passed by a vote of 311 to 112. However, Johnson lost a majority of Republicans on the legislation — which is a sign of weakness for the embattled Speaker. Only 101 Republicans voted for providing aid while 112 Republicans voted against providing aid and one, Dan Meuser of Pennsylvania, voted present.
Among the prominent Republicans who voted no where Elise Stefanik of New York, a member of leadership, and another major Trump ally, Jim Jordan of Ohio.
As the vote went on, Democrats waved Ukrainian flags and celebrated in the well of the House, then Lauren Boebert walked up to them and berated them.
Final passage was met with loud cheers from Democrats and a rebuke from Marc Molinaro of New York, who was presiding over the vote in the chair, because waving flags is against the rules of the House.
And a Trump VP candidate has voted against it:
Should it come to that:
71 Republicans voted for an amendment offered by Marjorie Taylor Greene to strip all funding from the Ukraine bill. That gives a clear signal of what the baseline is for Republican opposition to providing aid to Ukraine ahead of the final vote which will follow momentarily.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian flags are being handed out to Democratic lawmakers ahead of the vote. Many members are holding them.
Per CNN, here’s what’s in the 21st Century Peace through Strength Act, including the potential TikTok ban:
• Place sanctions on ports and refineries that receive and process Iranian oil.
• Place sanctions on anyone involved in activity covered under the UN missile embargo on Iran that lapsed last year or in the supply or sale of Iran’s missiles and drones.
• Further restrict the export of goods and technology of US origin to Iran.
• Empower the executive branch to seize and transfer frozen Russian assets held in the US to Ukraine.
• Give TikTok’s Chinese parent, ByteDance, nine months to sell the social media company or it would be banned from US app stores.
And the key parts of the Indo-Pacific Security Supplemental bill:
• $8.1 billion to counter China’s actions in the Indo-Pacific region
• $3.3 billion to develop submarine infrastructure
• $2 billion in foreign military financing for Taiwan and other key allies
• $1.9 billion to replenish defense items and services provided to Taiwan and regional partners
The aid for Taiwan got the go ahead.
The Peace Through Strength Act which toughens sanctions against Iran and Russia, as well an includes a provision requiring ByteDance to divest from TikTok, passed by an overwhelming bipartisan margin of 360-58. Opposition to the legislation was split between hard right members of the Freedom Caucus and the far left of the Democratic Caucuses.
The aid package isn’t the only thing the House is voting on today.
Right wing allies are coming to Mike Johnson’s aid. This morning, an open letter signed by a number of prominent conservative figures was released by Americans for Tax Reform.
The letter insists that “vacating a Republican Speaker distracts and undermines all progress on conservative issues while weakening the Republican majority in the House.” It was signed by an array of figures including Newt Gingrich and Ralph Reed as well as a number of Trump allies who played a role in the effort to overturn the 2020 presidential election including Ginni Thomas and Cleta Mitchell.
And prominent House Republican is saying he doesn’t think there will an attempt to oust Johnson today:
The pressure on Mike Johnson is growing. Matt Gaetz, who led the effort to oust Kevin McCarthy in October, is moving further towards supporting getting rid of Johnson too.
Gaetz, who hinted at being open to backing a motion to vacate earlier this week, is now moving even closer.
In a tweet early this afternoon, the Florida Republican praised a Breitbart op-ed that called for Johnson’s ouster and said he was no better than a Democrat.
The key part of the op-ed, which was written by former Trump administration official Lee Rizutto:
It is my strong belief, along with many of my fellow conservative Republicans, that Speaker Johnson has not simply crossed the line by working with the Democrats to advance this foolhardy foreign aid bill, he has essentially switched parties and become a member of President Biden‘s coalition to advance war with Russia at the expense of the American taxpayer. Americans overwhelmingly are against entering into a war with Russia, China, Iran, or anyone else.
This cannot be allowed to stand. I urge the Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives to immediately call up the Motion to Vacate, which will put these bills on hold, even if that means bringing the House to a standstill. Taking no action is better than the action that is about to be undertaken by Congress this weekend.
The long awaited vote today for the House to finally pass aid to Ukraine and Israel shouldn’t be too dramatic itself. There is overwhelming bipartisan support to help both key US allies. However, there is plenty of drama within the details and with what happens next.
The big question, of whether Marjorie Taylor Greene triggers her motion to vacate the chair and oust Speaker Mike Johnson, won’t be answered until after the last vote is finally gaveled to a close this afternoon. But a clear indicator will be just how many Republicans vote against aid to Ukraine. The House Republican Conference has proven increasingly hostile to aiding the embattled Eastern European country since Russia launched its invasion in February 2022. If Johnson is unable to keep a majority on his conference onside for that vote, it bodes ill for how many of his colleagues will seek to oust him afterwards.
Even then, Johnson is likely to continue as Speaker. But the more Republican defections, the weaker he will be and the more he will depend on Democrats.
