MTG Push to Oust Johnson Is MAGA Theater, Not a Real Threat

Can’t right-wing Republicans just get along? Photo: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Imag

It’s been obvious for a while now that Marjorie Taylor Greene’s threat to take down Speaker Mike Johnson via a motion to vacate the chair — the same device that ejected MTG’s close friend Kevin McCarthy last fall — isn’t going to succeed. Only two House Republicans, notorious extremists Thomas Massie and Paul Gosar, have signed on to MTG’s draft motion to get rid of Johnson in retaliation for his repeated cooperation with Democrats on spending and foreign-aid measures. And a host of other House Freedom Caucus types are on record making it clear they aren’t interested in another bloodbath so close to the November elections, where the GOP’s tiny majority is at stake.

Beyond her lack of Republican support, House Democrats made it clear last week that they will loan some votes to Johnson if he needs them to turn back MTG’s challenge, as Axios reported:

“We will vote to table Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Motion to Vacate the Chair,” [House Democratic Leader Hakeem] Jeffries and his deputies, Reps. Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) and Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.), said in a statement.

“If she invokes the motion, it will not succeed,” they said.

On top of everything else, MTG’s boss, Donald Trump, has sent multiple signals that he’s got Johnson’s back and would prefer that House Republicans stop bickering and devote their energies to securing his return to the White House. So she’s waving a gun at the Speaker with no live ammunition in the chamber (metaphorically — though she has gotten herself in trouble for brandishing firearms on social media).

Yet Johnson has been meeting with Greene this week, creating the impression that he’s worried about her threats and is considering concessions to some of her demands for a more systematically confrontational posture toward the hated opposition. Why is he giving her a degree of credibility she hasn’t earned?

It’s mostly MAGA theater, Punchbowl News suggests:

The reality is that much of this is cosplay for all of the players involved. Johnson is going to survive a motion to vacate with Democrats voting to table, so the threat from Greene, Massie and Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) is mostly theater. But Johnson would certainly like to be spared the indignity of having to rely on House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries to rescue his speakership.

It costs Johnson very little to hear Greene and Massie out and try to help them understand the situation he’s in. With little left to do this year, it’s clear Johnson would prefer to not have to deal with a motion to vacate — even if he can beat it.

Acceding to Greene’s demands that he sponsor no further aid to Ukraine and stop allowing Democrats to control federal spending levels would also be pretty easy for Johnson since those horses are far out of the barn for the current session of Congress. Yes, there could be another collision on spending at the end of the fiscal year in October, but by then the general election will be so near that it will be in everyone’s interest to punt the fight beyond Election Day and see who has the most marbles then. More generally, Greene and her allies have already lost the intracaucus battle to Johnson this year, so telling them he’ll straighten up and fly right in the future is a symbolic concession he can afford.

As for MTG herself, she lives for media attention rather than legislative accomplishments. And if she can secure some sort of deal with Johnson, however empty or symbolic, it will spare her the humiliation of badly losing a floor vote on a motion to vacate while letting her claim a partial victory and satisfy Trump that she’s not blowing up the House GOP. But let’s not pretend she’s got Johnson on the ropes. He’ll survive with or without her cooperation, and his ultimate fate will likely be determined by the 2024 voters who will leave the gavel in his hands or give it to Jeffries.