A popular idea among Republican business types (and those from trade-sensitive farm states) has been that Donald Trump’s oft-expressed love for tariffs is just part of his blustery approach to world affairs — a negotiating ploy rather than a genuine commitment to the 19th-century gospel of protectionism. For that reason, it was widely predicted that Trump would find a way to postpone or at least reduce the 25 percent tariffs he had been threatening to impose on Canada and Mexico on March 4 (delayed for 30 days after their initial announcement), along with another 10 percent tariff on China. The likelihood of retracting these threats was enhanced by the deadline’s coinciding with the day of the 47th president’s first big address to Congress. Surely, he wouldn’t want the distractions of a falling stock market and renewed jitters about inflation while he tries to bask in congratulations over his second administration’s breakneck pace of change. Or maybe not, since he is still insisting the tariffs will go into effect no matter what, as CNBC reports:
Trump, speaking at the White House on Monday afternoon, said there was “no room left” to negotiate with the two U.S. allies. “They’re all set. They go into effect tomorrow,” he said. Stocks, already trading in the red, sank further following Trump’s comments.
Tariffs, of course, raise prices on imported goods and on domestic goods that compete with them as the increased costs are passed on to consumers. Despite Trump’s past claims that “foreigners” will pay the tariffs and/or that they will produce a rapid reinvestment in U.S. production in order to avoid them, he acknowledged in a social-media post last month that the short-term impact will hit already inflation-weary Americans:
WILL THERE BE SOME PAIN? YES, MAYBE (AND MAYBE NOT!). BUT WE WILL MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, AND IT WILL ALL BE WORTH THE PRICE THAT MUST BE PAID.
Unfortunately for the man who once called tariff the “most beautiful word in the dictionary,” the public, including many Americans who voted for him in November, believe fighting higher prices is job one. In a February 25 Economist-YouGov survey, 98 percent of Americans called inflation and prices an “important” issue, 78 percent called it “very important,” and it ranked first on a list of “issues important to you” with “jobs and economy” ranking second. The sense that Trump has not adequately prioritized conquering inflation is already growing: 66 percent of respondents to a February 9 CBS News poll agreed that the administration’s efforts to lower prices are “not enough.”
Up until now, Team Trump 2.0 has concentrated its fire not on inflation but on disrupting the federal bureaucracy. Even if you believe federal deficit spending is a principal cause of inflation, the wild cuts to federal personnel and programs being pursued by Trump and Elon Musk are completely outstripped by demands for tax cuts and more spending on defense and border security, so it’s not as if the administration can credibly argue it is bringing down deficits or debts.
If Trump doesn’t recalibrate his priorities pretty soon, he will be vulnerable to the charge that he’s pursuing a course that will punish some of his most loyal supporters. Already his tariff agenda is becoming decidedly unpopular, as the Washington Post reports:
While Americans seemed open to and even supportive of the broad concept of tariffs when Trump pitched them during the 2024 campaign, the momentum appears to have swung in the other direction. A Washington Post-Ipsos poll in mid-February showed Americans were about evenly split on Trump’s more-limited tariffs on Chinese goods. But they opposed the tariffs on Mexico 59 percent to 34 percent, and they opposed the tariffs on Canada 64-31. Independents opposed both by around 40 points. The same poll showed 69 percent of Americans felt the tariffs would increase the prices they pay. That included 53 percent of Republicans.
One upcoming batch of threatened tariffs on agricultural goods may particularly hit working-class supermarket customers, as Bloomberg observed:
Trump said the U.S. would impose tariffs on “external” agricultural products starting on April 2, his latest threat to impose trade barriers on imported goods … The president did not provide more detail on which products would be affected, or if there would be any exceptions. But the move comes just as U.S. food imports balloon, driving the country’s agriculture trade deficit to a record $49 billion this year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast last week.
Aside from immediately raising the price of imported foods, these tariffs will definitely produce retaliations, risking overseas markets for farmers in deep-red heartland areas. Trump’s message for these farmers? It’s pretty much the same thing free-trade fans used to say to manufacturing workers facing job losses — get ready to change your lives in a big hurry:
To the Great Farmers of the United States: Get ready to start making a lot of agricultural product to be sold INSIDE of the United States. Tariffs will go on external product on April 2nd. Have fun!
Somehow, it’s unlikely that farmers who are being forced to completely abandon old markets and find new sources of income (and, in many cases, grow different crops) will find the process much “fun.” And like consumers paying more for groceries and other goods, they may not experience much compensatory joy in Trump’s efforts to make himself a global bullyboy at their expense. Like letting Musk run wild, Trump’s pursuit of his protectionist agenda is a self-indulgence that may cost him dearly.
