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One of the major themes of the very turbulent second Trump administration has been a reorientation of U.S. foreign policy to downplay or even reverse tensions between Washington and Moscow at the expense of relationships with Ukraine and Western Europe. This isn’t much of a surprise, given the 47th president’s long-standing admiration for Vladimir Putin as a fellow strongman (the best kind of a man, in their mutual estimation), along with the strategic imperatives of an “America First” approach that eschews alliances or loyalties that aren’t strictly transactional. There are also some parallels between the two men that are well known, including narcissism and a sort of cartoonish toxic masculinity, along with a base of support that includes billionaire oligarchs, Christian nationalists, and thuggish right-wing “populists.”
But the excesses surrounding Trump’s return to office are bringing to light a more pointed set of comparisons, as explained by Jonathan Rauch in The Atlantic:
Today, it is clear that what has happened since January 20 is not just a change of administration but a change of regime — a change, that is, in our system of government. But a change to what?
There is an answer, and it is not classic authoritarianism — nor is it autocracy, oligarchy, or monarchy. Trump is installing what scholars call patrimonialism …
Patrimonialism is less a form of government than a style of governing. It is not defined by institutions or rules; rather, it can infect all forms of government by replacing impersonal, formal lines of authority with personalized, informal ones. Based on individual loyalty and connections, and on rewarding friends and punishing enemies (real or perceived), it can be found not just in states but also among tribes, street gangs, and criminal organizations.
In its governmental guise, patrimonialism is distinguished by running the state as if it were the leader’s personal property or family business. It can be found in many countries, but its main contemporary exponent — at least until January 20, 2025 — has been Vladimir Putin.
Putin’s form of patrimonialism is often compared to criminal, Mafia-boss conduct, with personal respect based on fear and loyalty being the coin of the realm, as Christian Baghai observed not long ago:
Bill Browder, head of the Global Magnitsky Justice campaign and author of Red Notice and Freezing Order, has been a staunch critic of Vladimir Putin’s leadership style. He likens Putin to the archetype of a mafia boss, suggesting that the Russian president’s authority is precariously dependent on a type of respect that is rooted in fear rather than admiration. This comparison is not made lightly; in both popular culture and reality, a mafia boss commands through a combination of fear, violence, and the unspoken threat of retribution. Browder posits that Putin operates within a similar framework, where respect is synonymous with fear, and losing that respect could mean losing everything.
Putin has managed to create a loose network of patrimonialist leaders, including Viktor Orbán of Hungary, Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, and Narendra Modi of India, which Trump seems inclined to join.
Without question, Trump shares Putin’s proprietary attitude toward the government over which he presides as though it is an extension of his business holdings; that’s one reason he is so cavalier about conflicts of interest: Governing and profit-making are interchangeable activities in his mind. He has extended that mentality to his claims of unprecedented personal power over the executive branch, and as the embodiment of the executive branch, as well as over the legislative and judicial branches. Indeed, he has seen fit to delegate that vast personal power to the preeminent funder of his 2024 campaign, Elon Musk, who is treating the federal bureaucracy exactly the way he treated employees of companies he took over as owner. Musk is regarding the federal government as something he owns, because the actual owner, Trump, has given him free rein. Much of the confusion over Musk’s official status (or the lack thereof) stems from the complete refusal by either Musk or his boss to view themselves as employees rather than owner-operators of the public sector. Owners don’t need titles or limited grants of authority.
The “personal business” view of government also helps explain the ferocious Trump-Musk assault on the “deep state,” which represents an alternative power base, as Rauch explains:
Patrimonialism is suspicious of bureaucracies; after all, to exactly whom are they loyal? They might acquire powers of their own, and their rules and processes might prove obstructive. People with expertise, experience, and distinguished résumés are likewise suspect because they bring independent standing and authority. So patrimonialism stocks the government with nonentities and hacks, or, when possible, it bypasses bureaucratic procedures altogether.
Sound familiar? It should.
Another aspect of patrimonialism shared by Putin and Trump is a categorical refusal to share power with the opposition unless it is absolutely necessary. Both men have turned election victories into “mandates” so vast and unlimited as to make future elections as meaningless as possible. That doesn’t mean Trump will be as successful as his friend (or other “strongmen” who originally took power democratically) in subverting democracy; U.S. institutions designed to thwart dictatorship are undoubtedly more robust than their Russian counterparts ever were. But as we learned after the 2020 election, Trump has nothing but contempt for democracy unless it happens to serve his purposes.
The bottom line is that Trump will take his power grabs exactly as far as he is allowed to do by his congressional allies, the courts, and perhaps even some members of his administration who didn’t sign on for making America great again via the concentration of all power in one very fallible man. If we are lucky, smart, and brave, the 47th president may still admire and emulate Vladimir Putin but won’t achieve his corrupt and corrupting status as the personification of his country. Trump recently proclaimed: “He who saves his Country does not violate any Law.” Dress it up in red, white, and blue all you want, but that’s un-American.
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