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2016 Presidential Election

  1. early and often
    Was Biden’s Debate Worse Than Access Hollywood?Republicans abandoned Trump in droves after the Access Hollywood tape emerged. Yet he won anyway with some help from distractions.
    By Ed Kilgore
  2. past is prologue
    Ron DeSantis Is Turning Into Scott Walker, FastHe may be one bad debate performance away from a similar demise.
    By Ed Kilgore
  3. politics
    Sympathy for the Devil: In Defense of Horse-Race Election PollingThe answer to flawed data is more, not less, data.
    By Ed Kilgore
  4. california recall election
    A Defeat of the Newsom Recall Will Feed a New Round of MAGA Conspiracy TheoriesThe recall has lost ground, or maybe never had any. But Newsom’s momentum will be treated by Trump and Republicans as signs of a rigged election.
    By Ed Kilgore
  5. 2021 elections
    Virginia Is in for a Close, Expensive Governor’s RaceTerry McAuliffe has an edge, as Virginia has been trending blue. But the “businessman outsider” Glenn Youngkin has the money to keep it tight.
    By Ed Kilgore
  6. extremism
    Is Trump Going to Fade Like Sarah Palin?The good news is that he could lose his audience. The bad news is that it would take someone even more terrifying to come along.
    By Ed Kilgore
  7. politics
    Is Presidential Popularity Now All About Partisanship?Biden’s job-approval ratings are even steadier than Trump’s, suggesting a president’s party may be more important than his actions. It’s a scary idea.
    By Ed Kilgore
  8. louisiana
    Louisiana Has Two Living Ex-Governors: An Old Ex-Con and a Young Has-BeenLouisiana just lost three ex-governors. Survivors Edwin Edwards and Bobby Jindal make an odd duo, but they’re typical of the state’s eccentricities.
    By Ed Kilgore
  9. vision 2020
    Yes, Geographical Polarization Was a Big Deal in 2016 and 2020New data shows that the suburban swings to the left and rural swings to the right are consistent with the intuitive trends in the last two elections.
    By Ed Kilgore
  10. politics
    Iowa and New Hampshire Won’t Be Knocked Out of FirstDespite constant complaints, the difficulty of changing the primary and caucus calendar will likely keep the early states in place for 2024.
    By Ed Kilgore
  11. republicans
    Trump and Rubio, Best of FrenemiesRubio seems as tormented as ever by the man who rolled over him five years ago.
    By Ed Kilgore
  12. republican party
    Conservative George W. Bush Is Now Too Liberal for His PartyGeorge W. and Jeb Bush once defined not just Republicanism, but movement conservatism. Both have changed decisively after Trump.
    By Ed Kilgore
  13. donald trump
    Poll Confirms That It’s Still Trump’s Party, for NowA new survey shows that he’s still the favorite of three of five Republican “tribes.”
    By Ed Kilgore
  14. impeachment trial
    Senate Republicans Split on Trump’s Culpability for Capitol RiotMitch McConnell wasn’t the only senator who combined a vote to acquit Trump with criticism of his conduct. But most won’t have trouble crawling back.
    By Ed Kilgore
  15. vision 2020
    Biden’s Vote Lead Over Trump Now More than 7 MillionHe’s blown-away his old boss Barack Obama’s performance, which was the best for a Democratic presidential candidate since LBJ.
    By Ed Kilgore
  16. vision 2020
    The End Is Here: Last Two States Called in the Presidential ElectionTeam Trump may rage perpetually, but with Georgia falling to Biden and North Carolina to the president, the real-life election is over.
    By Ed Kilgore
  17. vision 2020
    How Trump Failed to Make This a ‘Choice’ ElectionCOVID-19 and Joe Biden’s nomination screwed up Trump’s original campaign strategy, and he never adjusted.
    By Ed Kilgore
  18. poll position
    Where Trump and the GOP Need Immediate Gains to Win on Election DayIt’s getting late in the day for a Republican surge, and the trouble for Trump and his party is that they trail over a large landscape.
    By Ed Kilgore
  19. vision 2020
    GOP Hopes That Amy Coney Barrett Would Fire Up the Base FizzledIt’s unclear that killing Garland’s confirmation or forcing Kavanaugh’s did electoral magic for the GOP. The non-fight over Barrett sure won’t.
    By Ed Kilgore
  20. vision 2020
    Trump Is Running Out of Time to Change These 8 Election X-FactorsExamining the remaining variables, the president is in serious trouble just two weeks ahead of his date with reelection fate.
    By Ed Kilgore
  21. 2020 elections
    Joni Ernst Bombs on Must-Know Soybean Question in DebateRepublican Ernst became famous for her 2014 ads bragging about her experience castrating hogs on an Iowa farm. She seems to have lost touch.
    By Ed Kilgore
  22. poll position
    Trump’s Post-Access Hollywood Comeback Will Be Hard to RepeatAt this point in the 2016 cycle, Trump’s campaign looked dead — then he bounced back. But he went into his COVID crisis with weaker poll numbers.
    By Ed Kilgore
  23. poll position
    New State Polls Show Biden Landslide and Narrow Trump Win Are Both PossibleBiden’s national lead is steady, but a shift of a few points in either direction could produce a big shift in Electoral votes.
    By Ed Kilgore
  24. vision 2020
    MAGA Visibility Is Making Democrats NervousBiden is relying less on his ground game and more on digital organizing, worrying some supporters who are seeing a preponderance of Trump lawn signs.
    By Ed Kilgore
  25. 2020 elections
    Ranked-Choice Voting Would Prevent Minor-Party SpoilersSusan Collins might not like Maine’s new system come November, but it helps protect the freedom to choose minor parties and avoids the “spoiled” vote.
    By Ed Kilgore
  26. poll position
    50 Days Out, Biden Doing Better in Polls Than Clinton, Obama, or KerryThe only candidate to overcome as big a disadvantage as Trump faces now is Obama in 2008, and all hell broke loose that fall.
    By Ed Kilgore
  27. vision 2020
    Is the Rust Belt or the Sun Belt the Key Battleground Region in 2020?Less than two months from Election Day, the pivotal region for the campaigns to focus on is the same one that won it all for Trump in 2016.
    By Ed Kilgore
  28. vision 2020
    Does Labor Day Mark the Beginning of the Real Presidential Race?Legend aside, most presidential races are largely decided before Labor Day, with partisan polarization and early voting contributing to that reality.
    By Ed Kilgore
  29. vision 2020
    Polls Reveal the Conventions to Be Enormous Wastes of Time and EffortThe basic shape of the race hasn’t changed after the conventions, though a poll from Pennsylvania is good news for Trump
    By Ed Kilgore
  30. vision 2020
    Presidential Battleground States Change All the TimeOhio, Iowa, Colorado, and Virginia are recent battlegrounds that are no longer very competitive, while Florida and Wisconsin remain critical in 2020.
    By Ed Kilgore
  31. vision 2020
    Why Trump Could Have an Election Night Lead in Blue StatesWhether or not Trump clams victory based on convincing his supporters to vote on Election Day rather than by mail, the early returns may look weird.
    By Ed Kilgore
  32. republican national convention
    Why the RNC Must Claim Biden Will Make Life Even WorseTrump can’t run on his record or second-term agenda, so his only play is to rail against “American carnage” — even though he’s the incumbent.
    By Ed Kilgore
  33. vision 2020
    Hillary Clinton Rose to a Painful OccasionShe occupied a much-diminished role in this convention. But she made the case she needed to make.
    By Ed Kilgore
  34. vision 2020
    Trump’s 2016 Gettysburg Address Could Be Tough Act to FollowA 2020 acceptance speech in Gettysburg would invite comparisons to his 2016 “closing argument,” in which he laid out promises he did not often keep.
    By Ed Kilgore
  35. vision 2020
    Would Biden Contest a Trump Electoral College Win?While there’s abundant evidence Trump is willing to contest an adverse election result, it’s unlikely Joe Biden would trigger a constitutional crisis.
    By Ed Kilgore
  36. vision 2020
    How Much of a Cushion Does Biden Need?So long as Biden’s leads in potential tipping-point states like Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are near his national lead, he’s okay.
    By Ed Kilgore
  37. vision 2020
    There’s Still No Evidence Trump Voters Are Particularly ‘Shy’Trump can in theory still turn things around, but he has no hidden army of voters.
    By Ed Kilgore
  38. vision 2020
    Why 2020 Is Not Just Another 2016Democrats can be forgiven for a superstitious fear of a Trump comeback. But the real threat may not emerge until the polls close.
    By Ed Kilgore
  39. vision 2020
    Not Much ‘Democratic Disarray’ in 2020Polling indicates that backers of Biden’s primary rivals are falling into line much more solidly than did Sanders supporters in 2016.
    By Ed Kilgore
  40. vision 2020
    Trump Targeting Wrong Battleground States, Just As Clinton Did in 2016The president needs to focus on lifting his national numbers, not “playing defense” in Ohio or Iowa.
    By Ed Kilgore
  41. vision 2020
    Are Trump’s Rallies for an Audience of One?With no evidence that his rallies make any real difference, you have to wonder if they are held strictly for him to charge up on the crowd’s cheers.
    By Ed Kilgore
  42. vision 2020
    Trump Needs an Opponent to Demonize. It’s Hard to Do That to Uncle Joe.Trump has tried and failed so far to undermine Joe Biden the way he did Hillary Clinton. He may get really desperate.
    By Ed Kilgore
  43. vision 2020
    Trump Is Now the 2020 UnderdogThe incumbent’s path to reelection is decidedly narrowing.
    By Ed Kilgore
  44. vision 2020
    The Tulsa Rally Was a Really Bad Sign for TrumpThe fiasco in Oklahoma sent a lot of terrible messages about the president and his prospects for reelection.
    By Ed Kilgore
  45. vision 2020
    In Trump Years, It Feels Like Late in His Second TermThe intensity of the Trump presidency may mean he is wearing out his welcome in just one term — which took Bush two terms, according to polling.
    By Ed Kilgore
  46. vision 2020
    Why Do Trump Supporters Act Like His Reelection Is Certain?For reasons varying from a Trumpian infatuation with “winning” to thoughts of contesting a loss, many Republicans act as though it’s a done deal.
    By Ed Kilgore
  47. vision 2020
    No One Group of Voters Will Determine Trump’s FateWinning or losing a voter group is often less important than the margins, where a vote’s a vote–except in the Electoral College.
    By Ed Kilgore
  48. vision 2020
    Biden’s Polling Lead Over Trump Is Getting Seriously LargeWith five months to go, Biden’s leading nationally by a comfortable margin and also in six battleground states Trump won in 2016.
    By Ed Kilgore
  49. vision 2020
    Libertarians Decide to Become a Joke in 2020With a ticket composed of an obscure party stalwart and a performance artist, they probably won’t draw many votes from major parties in November.
    By Ed Kilgore
  50. vision 2020
    Third Parties Unlikely to Wreak Havoc in 2020 ElectionMajor parties are more united than they were in 2016, and Americans are more wary of wasting votes — which is bad news for Greens and Libertarians.
    By Ed Kilgore
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