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Exit Polls

  1. politics
    Swing Voters Don’t Explain Why Youngkin WonIt looks like the Republican’s win in Virginia was the product of poor Democratic-base turnout, not angry ex–Biden voters in the suburbs.
    By Ed Kilgore
  2. politics
    6 Takeaways From Glenn Youngkin’s Win in VirginiaEarly data suggests the Republican governor-elect benefited from higher turnout in pro-GOP areas and among white working-class voters in particular.
    By Ed Kilgore
  3. vision 2020
    New Data Shows How Biden Won, Where Trump Gained in 2020A Pew analysis shows that Biden’s suburban boom was real, the gender gap shrank, and Trump’s boost among Latinos was larger than previously known.
    By Ed Kilgore
  4. vision 2020
    Will Anyone Possibly Be Able to Call the Presidential Race on Election Night?Why you should be extra-skeptical of pundits (and the president) making declarations on November 3.
    By Ed Kilgore
  5. vision 2020
    Social-Media Platforms Will Discourage Premature Election Victory ClaimsWhat Twitter and Facebook are doing should be emulated and expanded by all broadcast and cable networks before Election Night.
    By Ed Kilgore
  6. vision 2020
    Why Trump Could Have an Election Night Lead in Blue StatesWhether or not Trump clams victory based on convincing his supporters to vote on Election Day rather than by mail, the early returns may look weird.
    By Ed Kilgore
  7. 2018 midterms
    2014’s Electorate Showed Up to the 2018 Election. But It Voted Differently.Exit polls from the pro-Republican 2014 and pro-Democratic 2018 elections show similarly shaped electorates, but a change in public opinion.
    By Ed Kilgore
  8. As the Parties Have Polarized on Immigration Policy, Hispanic Vote Stays StableThe major parties have been rapidly separating on immigration policy in the very recent past. But other factors have kept the Hispanic vote stable.
    By Ed Kilgore
  9. Why Latino Voters Didn’t Bury TrumpTrump may have done better than Romney among Latinos. Some may have been indifferent to immigration policy, while others really did not like Mitt.
    By Ed Kilgore
  10. Corey Lewandowski Credits the FBI for Trump WinTrump’s former aide says James Comey’s late-October letter changed the course of the election. Exit polls suggest he may be right.
    By Eric Levitz
  11. How Trump Won, by the NumbersThe GOP nominee outperformed Mitt Romney among men, low-income households, union members — and, to a lesser degree, black and Hispanic voters.
    By Eric Levitz
  12. Should You Trust Slate’s Early Numbers?The online magazine has launched an ambitious effort to provide real-time information on how the deal is going down. If nothing else, it is fun.
    By Ed Kilgore
  13. Behind the Mystery of Bernie’s Exit PollsIt’s not conspiracy.
    By Ed Kilgore
  14. Arab-Israeli Turnout Sparks Salty Statements and Ned Stark ReferencesWho will the 15 percent of undecided voters in Israel pick, and what will it mean for Benjamin Netanyahu?
    By Jaime Fuller
  15. the racie for gracie
    Democratic Voters Approve of Mayor Bloomberg, Are Glad He’s LeavingAnd other things we learned from the exit polls. 
    By Dan Amira
  16. early and often
    Exit Polls: Voters Hate Everybody, But Democrats Still May Get ‘Murdered’That sounds about right.
    By Dan Amira
  17. Would Clinton Really Have Beaten McCain by a Wider Margin Than Obama?That’s what CBS News and Drudge would have you believe.
    By Chris Rovzar
  18. early and often
    The Breakdown: Who Elected Obama, and Did They Give Him a Mandate?Which demographic groups Obama won over, how the polls fared, and what Obama’s mandate looks like.
    By Dan Amira
  19. early and often
    Why Not to Pay Attention to Exit-Poll ReportingAlready the numbers flying around are contradicting themselves.
    By Chris Rovzar
  20. early and often
    Clinton’s Base Returns in Force, and at Just the Right Moment “Don’t call it a comeback, I’ve been here for years.” Once again the immortal words of LL Cool J somehow perfectly apply to an American political trend. Tuesday was indeed Clinton’s comeback night, and she owes it all to whites, Latinos, women, the working class, late-deciders, the elderly, the moderately educated — just about any demographic group that can possibly be identified and analyzed through exit polls. But the numbers alone don’t tell the whole story — here are some of the more interesting takes on last night’s exit polls.