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Poll Position

  1. poll position
    Trump Approval Rating Looks Fragile at Start of Second TermThe 47th president is more popular than he’s been for most of his political career. But it won’t take much to bring back bad vibes.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    What the Harris vs. Trump Polls Got WrongThe polls weren’t off that much in capturing a near-uniform swing in very close states. But they underestimated the Trump vote once again.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    Final Trump vs. Harris Polls Show It’s Down to the WireAll seven battlegrounds are still in play as the presidential race comes to a close.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    Trump vs. Harris Polls Are Tied, But the Race Isn’t OverPolling averages show either candidate could win, though there’s still time for a decisive shift toward Trump or Harris.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    Harris vs. Trump Polls: Is the Trump Vibe Shift Real?It may seem like things are shifting in Trump’s direction, but the numbers are still dead even.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    Harris vs. Trump Polls Are Close, But Somebody Could Win BigAll the battleground states could go either way, and control of Congress is up in the air as well.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    Harris vs. Trump Polls: A Rock Fight, But Kamala Has a Slight AdvantageThere’s really not much movement in the polls lately, so it may come down to the ground game, and Harris could have a small but crucial edge.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    Harris vs. Trump Polls: 2024 Election Could Be the Closest EverWith a debate and a second assassination attempt in the rearview mirror, the Harris-Trump contest is by any measure too close to call.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    Harris vs. Trump Polls: Kamala’s Debate Bounce EmergesWhile it’s still early, there is enough initial polling to suggest that Harris’s strong debate performance did her some significant good.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    Harris vs. Trump Polls: Kamala’s Ace in the Hole Is PopularityIt’s a crazy-close race, but Harris’s relatively strong favorability ratings could give her a better shot at winning.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    Harris Vs. Trump Polls: A Close Race, Even With No DNC BounceHarris has pulled even or slightly ahead in the battleground states without major gains from the Democratic National Convention.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    Harris vs. Trump Polls: Kamala Surges in Battleground StatesWhile Joe Biden’s path to 270 electoral votes was narrow, Harris has made all the crucial states competitive again.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    Harris vs. Trump Polls: Kamala’s Gains Are Now a Trend, Not Just a BounceThe polls are showing steady gains across the board for the new Democratic nominee, though it remains a very close race.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    Harris vs. Trump Polls: It’s a New RaceKamala Harris is making gains over Joe Biden’s performance and may have put some Sun Belt states back into play.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    What the Polls Say About Trump vs. Kamala HarrisShe’s basically as popular as the president but is likely to get a polling surge in the days just ahead.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    Biden v. Trump Polls: Joe’s Support Is Slipping, But Not CrashingTrump’s post-debate polling gains are relatively small. But many Democrats are still panicking, as they believe Biden can’t afford to lose any ground.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    Biden and Harris Poll About the Same Against TrumpRecent polling also shows the vice-president performing slightly better than other potential Biden replacements.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    First Post-Debate Polls Are Bad for Biden — But Not FatalWhile the debate didn’t cause a pro-Trump landslide, the most recent and influential polls show big problems for Biden that could quickly get worse.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    Trump vs. Biden Polls: A Close Race Gets Even CloserTrump may have lost a bit of ground in a five-way race, but he still has a broader path to victory than Biden.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    Abortion Rights Look Set to Sweep Again on November BallotAbortion referendums could be on the ballot in as many as ten states, and polls show a win for the pro-choice cause is possible in all of them.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    Polls Say Trump Is Just as Popular Post-ConvictionIt doesn’t seem the guilty verdict has help or hurt the former president, who is facing an equally unpopular incumbent in Joe Biden
    By Ed Kilgore
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    Trump vs. Biden Polls: How the Conviction Affected the RacePolls after Trump’s guilty verdict in Manhattan don’t suggest it will be a decisive factor in the election, though it’s still early.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    Trump vs. Biden Polls: Joe May Need a Rust Belt SweepThe incumbent is showing weakness in three key Sun Belt states he won in 2020, narrowing his path to reelection.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    Trump-vs.-Biden Polls: Will Ticket-Splitting Hurt Joe?Several Senate Democratic candidates in battleground states are running ahead of the president. But the gaps may not last.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    What the Polls Say Today: Democrats Take Lead in Generic Congressional BallotDemocrats recently moved into a narrow lead, though handicappers still give Republicans a good chance to hold the House.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    Trump-vs.-Biden Polls: Don’t Be Fooled by Outliers!Excessive focus on single polls or even short-term trends in averages signifies spin rather than analysis.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    Biden and Trump–Hating Voters Aren’t Wild About RFK Jr. EitherPolling on voters alienated by both major-party candidates shows no big advantage for either and no exodus to Kennedy. They may just stay home.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    Trump vs. Biden Polls: Will the War in Gaza Decide the 2024 Race?While the carnage in Gaza and protests on campus are dominating the political discourse, so far that isn’t reflected in presidential polling.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    Trump vs. Biden Polls: How Will the Hush-Money Trial Play?Polling shows voters consider these charges the least serious made against Trump, and reactions to a possible conviction match party affiliation.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    Biden Has All But Caught Up With Trump in PollsThere are many variables at play, including RFK Jr. and whose voters turn out.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    Trump vs. Biden Polls: Will Old Folks Save Joe?There are signs Biden is holding on to a significant percentage of the senior vote against Trump, which may offset his problems with younger voters.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    Trump vs. Biden Polls: Joe Has Finally Stopped the BleedingPresident Biden didn’t really have a post-SOTU polling “bounce.” But he’s stopped losing ground to Trump and is even making some modest gains.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    What the Polls Say Today: RFK Jr. Now Hurting Biden, Helping TrumpInitially the vaccine skeptic and conspiracy theorist seemed to be drawing more votes from Trump, but that’s changed — and it could change again.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    Trump vs. Biden Polls: No State of the Union Bounce for JoeThe president’s big SOTU speech might ultimately represent a turning point for his reelection bid. But the numbers don’t show it happening just yet.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    California Senate Polls: Schiff Helps Garvey Edge Out Fellow DemocratsAdam Schiff spent millions to ensure a long-shot GOP candidate will be his general-election rival. Polls of the March 5 primary show it’s working.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    Biden vs. Trump Polls: Joe’s Battleground ProblemBeating Trump in the popular vote may not be enough for Biden to win the Electoral College.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    Biden vs. Trump Polls: 2024 Race Is a Dead Heat, Despite Democrat PanicAll the talk about Biden’s age changing everything hasn’t caused much of a shift in 2024 election polling.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    What the Polls Say Today: Does Haley Have a Shot in South Carolina?Trump appears to be romping toward victory in Haley’s home state and beyond.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    What the Polls Say Today: There’s No Hope for Nikki HaleyTrump’s only remaining GOP rival isn’t polling well in this month’s South Carolina primary, and the road gets even rockier from there.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    A 5-Way Presidential Race May Help Trump Beat BidenIt’s unclear where candidates like Jill Stein, RFK Jr., and Cornel West will qualify for the ballot. But it looks like the more the merrier for MAGA.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    4 Reasons Biden’s 2024 Odds May Be Better Than You ThinkThe president is quite unpopular, but an improving economy and a potentially criminal opponent may swing the election in Democrats’ favor.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    What the Polls Say Today: Trump Poised to Win New Hampshire HandilyNikki Haley has come far, but her lack of support among base Republicans makes a New Hampshire primary upset very unlikely.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    What the Polls Say Today: Trump’s Lead in the GOP Race Is SoaringPolls of Super Tuesday states suggest New Hampshire is Nikki Haley’s one chance to upset Donald Trump in the GOP contest.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    Iowa Caucus Polls Pretty Much Nailed ItThe 2024 Iowa caucuses presented lots of obstacles for pollsters, from weather to Trump supporters’ evasiveness. They were still pretty accurate.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    What the Iowa Polls Say Today: Trump Romps While DeSantis SinksRecent surveys agree that Trump will win by a record margin as DeSantis and Haley fight for second place.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    What the Polls Said This Year: Trump’s Up, Americans Are DownHere’s how primary and general-election polls have evolved over 2023, and what they tell us about where the race is headed.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    What the Polls Say Today: Trump Is Trouncing DeSantis and Haley in IowaThe winnowing of the GOP field has only added to Trump’s strength, according to a new gold-standard Iowa poll by Ann Selzer.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    The 2024 Polls Agree: Trump Has a Significant Lead Over BidenMuch could change in the next year, but right now Trump is ahead of Biden nationally and in most battleground states.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    Trump Leads Biden in Latest Battleground State PollsThe 2024 general election is far away. But it’s not too early to pay attention to the places where the next presidency will actually be determined.
    By Ed Kilgore
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    What the Polls Say Today: Trump’s Rivals Need a New Strategy, FastAfter a string of supposedly fatal campaign missteps, Trump’s polling stronger than ever. His rivals need to realize he’s not going to self-destruct.
    By Ed Kilgore
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