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Turnout

  1. 2022 midterms
    Why 2022 Won’t Be Another 1994 Republican Tidal WaveLindsey Graham’s prediction of an impending red wave ignores several key factors behind the GOP’s historic gains in Bill Clinton’s first midterm.
    By Ed Kilgore
  2. vision 2020
    What the Early-Voting Deluge Could Mean for the ElectionRecord levels of early voting may mean record overall turnout. But even if early voters are just voting earlier, it could make for a quicker count.
    By Ed Kilgore
  3. vision 2020
    Could a Youth-Vote Surge Offset Bernie’s Vulnerabilities in November?So far the evidence isn’t there that Sanders is creating some big youth-turnout surge. He could win anyway, but not by disdaining regular Democrats.
    By Ed Kilgore
  4. vision 2020
    Why Wasn’t Turnout Better in Iowa?Maybe it was just a matter of complacent Democrats not knowing or caring whom they support against Trump. But it doesn’t show an expanding coalition.
    By Ed Kilgore
  5. vision 2020
    Why Polls Might Get the Iowa Caucuses WrongCaucuses and primaries are very different environments … starting with who shows up in the first place.
    By Ed Kilgore
  6. vision 2020
    Black Turnout Could Make or Break Democrats in 2020Democrats need high black turnout if they want to oust Trump. Putting Stacey Abrams on the ticket might be the best available strategy.
    By Ed Kilgore
  7. vision 2020
    Three Years Later, Trump Has Lost the Element of SurpriseMemories of the shock of Election Night 2016 could become a strategic asset for Democrats, who sure won’t get over-confident in 2020.
    By Ed Kilgore
  8. vision 2020
    Why High Turnout May Not Help Democrats in 2020Democrats need a backup plan in case turning the presidential election into a polarized frenzy drives untapped Trump voters to the polls, too.
    By Ed Kilgore
  9. vision 2020
    Team Trump Says Polling Is ‘a Joke.’ Is There Any Truth to That?The more you look at the Trump campaign’s efforts to discredit polling, the more it discredits itself.
    By Ed Kilgore
  10. vision 2020
    Why Trump Will Be an Underdog in the 2020 ElectionThere are a lot of moving parts in Election 2020, but at this point Trump remains a loudly growling underdog.
    By Ed Kilgore
  11. vision 2020
    The Turnout Boom in 2018 Was a Preview for 2020A Trump-centric election and the expansion of ways to register and vote early should combine to keep turnout as high in 2020 as it was in 2018.
    By Ed Kilgore
  12. 2018 midterms
    2014’s Electorate Showed Up to the 2018 Election. But It Voted Differently.Exit polls from the pro-Republican 2014 and pro-Democratic 2018 elections show similarly shaped electorates, but a change in public opinion.
    By Ed Kilgore
  13. 2018 midterms
    What Can We Learn From Early Voting This Year? Turnout Is High.Early voting numbers don’t show who’s going to win nationally. High turnout could point to a Democratic wave, but 2016 suggests caution is in order.
    By Ed Kilgore
  14. 2018 midterms
    Democrats Are Ending the Once-Powerful Republican Midterm Turnout AdvantageCollege-educated white voters tilting towards Democrats and sure to turn out. If young and minority voting surges too, the wave could be substantial.
    By Ed Kilgore
  15. 2018 midterms
    Will the Kavanaugh Fight Affect the Midterms?All the noise about Kavanaugh could encourage the older white voters who usually vote in midterms to show up, but Democratic enthusiasm remains high.
    By Ed Kilgore
  16. 2018 midterms
    Lessons From the 2018 Primary SeasonThings look good for Democrats as the primaries end, but there remain a lot of tossup races.
    By Ed Kilgore
  17. 2018 elections
    If Gillum’s Coalition Shows Up in November, It Could Be a Game-ChangerFlorida’s Andrew Gillum seems to have gotten a lot of young and minority voters who don’t usually participate in midterms to show up.
    By Ed Kilgore
  18. California Property Tax Initiative Could Be Another Boon to GOP TurnoutA Realtor-backed ballot initiative expanding property tax loopholes for homeowners over 55 could drive turnout among Republican-leaning voters.
    By Ed Kilgore
  19. Wisconsin’s Supreme Court Special Election Was a Terrible Omen for the GOPRepublican Governor Scott Walker doesn’t seem too confident.
    By Ed Kilgore
  20. Texas Primary Roundup: Democratic Turnout Shows Progress, But No RevolutionMany contests won’t be resolved until a May runoff, but some upsets enlivened 2018’s first statewide election.
    By Ed Kilgore
  21. A Surge in Primary Turnout Is a Good Sign for Democrats, But Not a GuaranteeIf Democratic primary voting surges in Texas today, it could be a relatively meaningless blip, or an omen that the state is slowly turning blue.
    By Ed Kilgore
  22. Democrat Looking Strong in Trump-Country Special Congressional ElectionConor Lamb’s not a long-shot candidate anymore, despite heavy GOP and Trump efforts on behalf of his opponent.
    By Ed Kilgore
  23. Early Voting Among Texas Democrats Is Off the ChartsIt’s a sign of superior enthusiasm, not any guarantee of success in November, but it confirms Democrats have a wind at their backs.
    By Ed Kilgore
  24. Jones Upsets Moore and Humiliates Trump in Deep-Red AlabamaOn the back of strong turnout from African-Americans and a superior campaign, Doug Jones pulled an upset that will echo into next year’s midterms.
    By Ed Kilgore
  25. Turnout Will Win It for Moore or Jones, But GOP Will Have a Headache Either WayIn a strange campaign where the front-runner disappeared and the polls are all over the place, turnout patterns will matter most.
    By Ed Kilgore
  26. Roy Moore Hasn’t Won Just YetMoore has improved his position since being hit with sexual-misconduct allegations, but African-American turnout for Doug Jones could be crucial.
    By Ed Kilgore
  27. Moore Using Abortion Issue to Shame Conservatives Into Voting on December 12Roy Moore’s emphasis on the abortion issue shows the importance of a narrow band of conservative voters who may or may not go to the polls.
    By Ed Kilgore
  28. Will the Obama Coalition Turn Out in 2018? Virginia Might Offer Some CluesNon-presidential election falloff in the base is a long-standing problem for Democrats that they haven’t clearly solved.
    By Ed Kilgore
  29. In Most Expensive House Race Ever, Ossoff Takes the LeadPolling shows Democrat Jon Ossoff with a significant lead over Republican Karen Handel in Georgia’s special election. That defies conventional wisdom.
    By Ed Kilgore
  30. Ossoff Race Shows Democratic Turnout at Levels Needed for Midterm WaveAn analysis of Georgia’s special election shows Democrats turning out more than Republicans — which is unusual.
    By Ed Kilgore
  31. Did Democrats Just Begin an Electoral Comeback by Winning in Delaware?In a special election that could have given Republicans control of yet another legislative chamber, robust turnout gave Democrats a much-needed win.
    By Ed Kilgore
  32. Clinton’s Failure With the Working Class Had Little to Do With Trump VotersClinton didn’t lose the Rust Belt because white working-class Democrats voted for Trump. She lost it because they stayed at home.
    By Eric Levitz
  33. Trump Did Not Need an Organization: He Let Conservative Groups Organize for HimThey were strongest in the areas where he did best.
    By Ed Kilgore
  34. Latino Turnout Surges in Early VotingAnd it could help Hillary Clinton outperform her polling in a few key swing states.
    By Eric Levitz
  35. What Clinton’s Campaign Should Be Doing in the Final DaysFor Hillary Clinton, the race is tightening at the worst possible time. She needs a strict focus on turnout operations in the states she has to win.
    By Ed Kilgore
  36. Clinton Works to Turn Out Her Base, and Trump Helps HerThe two candidates’ very different strategies for mobilizing base voters could have different side effects. Trump’s could rile up the opposing base.
    By Ed Kilgore
  37. Can Fear and Hate Turn Out the Vote As Much As Enthusiasm?Normally a lack of enthusiasm for the candidates will depress turnout. But strong antipathy along with a sense of high stakes can do the trick, too.
    By Ed Kilgore
  38. If You Want a More Democratic Nominating Process, Take a Look at Caucuses FirstPrimaries are far more participatory. Disgruntled Sanders supporters, among others, should take notice. 
    By Ed Kilgore
  39. the midterm snapshot
    The Midterm Snapshot: November 2Will the GOP be surfing a mere wave, or a tsunami?
    By Dan Amira
  40. early and often or not at all
    We’re Not Sure You Realize How Few People Voted Last MonthWere you one of the 2 percent of New Yorkers to elect John Liu and Bill de Blasio?
    By Dan Amira
  41. early and often or not at all
    New Yorkers More Indifferent Than EverA turnout record was set on Tuesday, in a bad way.
    By Dan Amira