Happening this Tuesday: President Biden speaks on his administration’s climate actions at 10:10 am ET before departing to San Francisco for a campaign fundraiser ahead of meeting with China’s Xi… U.S. House takes up vote to fund government as Democrats signal support for GOP funding bill… Tim Scott’s exit barely changes GOP presidential race in Iowa, per latest NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll… And Doug Burgum campaigns in Iowa.
But FIRST… As the qualifications get higher for the next Republican presidential debate on Dec. 6, the stage is set to get smaller — to maybe just three candidates.
Not including Donald Trump, of course, who’s set to skip a fourth-straight GOP debate.
According to an NBC News analysis, three non-Trump candidates so far have appeared to meet the Republican National Committee’s higher donor requirement (80,000) and polling threshold (at least 6% in two national polls — or 6% in one national poll and two different early-state polls).
Those three are Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.
On Monday, NBC’s Emma Barnett reported that former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s campaign said it’s met the 80,000-donor requirement. But it’s unclear if Christie has cleared the polling threshold.
(The Christie campaign has pointed to getting at least 6% in two different national polls, but those surveys don’t appear to abide by the RNC’s polling qualifications, though the RNC has the final word.)
The debates have certainly winnowed the GOP presidential field: Former Vice President Mike Pence ended his campaign before last week’s third debate (when he hadn’t met that debate’s requirements), and Sen. Tim Scott suspended his bid on Sunday (after barely qualifying for the third debate).
So will it be three debate participants on Dec. 6 in Alabama? Or will it be more than that?
The RNC won’t announce the participants until 48 hours before the next debate, but it’s safe to expect the smallest stage yet.
Headline of the day
The number of the day is … 14
That’s the length of the Supreme Court’s new code of conduct that was released Monday, NBC’s Lawrence Hurley reports.
Many of the points in the code of conduct are not actually new, but are now further outlined and combined in this new format, Hurley reports. The code of conduct’s release comes after several reports this year raised questions about whether justices were following already-established ethics rules.
Still, the new rules have no formal enforcement mechanisms, a point which drew criticism from outside groups and from Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee. Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., who chairs the committee, called the new code a “step in the right direction,” but that it “[falls] short of what we could and should expect.”
Eyes on 2024: Tim Scott’s exit shakes up the race (well, kind of)
South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott’s abrupt exit from the GOP presidential race may have been a surprise, but NBC’s Ali Vitali and Nnamdi Egwuonwu report that “the writing was on the wall that the campaign was coming to a close.”
A last-ditch effort to move staff to Iowa and focus on the Hawkeye State didn’t help Scott gain traction, and some sources close to the Scott campaign told Vitali and Egwuonwu that the campaign made “strategic errors.” Plus, Scott couldn’t overcome Trump’s dominance in the race.
Scott’s exit has shifted even more focus to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley as they vie for second place, per NBC’s Jonathan Allen and Natasha Korecki. Haley announced a $10 million ad campaign and DeSantis urged his team to target Scott donors, they report.
But it doesn’t look like Scott’s downfall dramatically shakes up the GOP primary — at least not in Iowa.
Our latest NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll finds the race virtually unchanged with Scott out of the picture.
About a quarter of Scott’s supporters go to Trump for their second choice, about a quarter go to DeSantis, and about a quarter go to Haley.
And when the ballot is reallocated with Scott’s second-choice support, it produces an Iowa horserace that remains unchanged — albeit with Trump closer to 50%.
- Trump 45% (was 43%)
- DeSantis 18% (was 16%)
- Haley 18% (was 16%)
- Ramaswamy 4% (was 4%)
- Christie 4% (was 4%)
In other campaign news…
Praising Biden: President Joe Biden’s staunch support for Israel has drawn praise from Jewish Americans, even more religious Jews who tend to support Republicans, NBC’s Megan Lebowitz reports.
Creating some distance: Trump’s campaign co-campaign managers Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita issued a joint statement on Monday pushing back on multiple reports about Trump’s plans for another presidential term, per the New York Times. They referenced “various nonprofit groups” and said “none of these groups or individuals speak for President Trump or his campaign.”
Ramaswamy vs. Sununu: Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy responded to criticism from New Hampshire GOP Gov. Chris Sununu by saying that an endorsement from the governor would be the “kiss of death,” per NBC’s Emma Barnett and Katherine Koretski.
Trump trials: In a back-and-forth over televising Trump’s federal election interference trial, special counsel Jack Smith’s office accused Trump of wanting a “carnival atmosphere” for the trial per NBC’s Ryan J. Reilly. Trump, meanwhile, posted on social media that Smith and other officials will be “in a Mental Institution by the time my next term as President is successfully completed.” In Trump’s civil fraud trial in New York, Trump’s son, Donald Trump, Jr., once again took the stand.
Florida man faces complaint: Senate Republicans’ campaign arm filed a complaint against Florida GOP Senate candidate Keith Gross, alleging he used businesses that he owns to make illegal contributions to his campaign, NBC’s Matt Dixon reports. Gross is running against Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla.
She’s running: Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-Va., announced Monday that she would run for governor in Virginia in 2025. As a result, she will not seek re-election to her competitive seat in 2024.
He’s running: Jacob Chansley, widely known as the “QAnon Shaman” who stormed the Capitol during the Jan. 6 riot, filed paperwork to run for Congress as a Libertarian in Arizona’s 8th District.
ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world
As several people broke into an unoccupied government vehicle late Sunday, a Secret Service agent assigned to protect Naomi Biden Neal, President Joe Biden’s eldest granddaughter, opened fire, the agency said Monday.
Former President Donald Trump’s older sister and retired federal judge Maryanne Trump Barry died at 86.
