Happening this Thursday: Shooting in Maine leaves at least 15 dead, 50 injured… UAW and Ford reach tentative deal to end autoworker strike… After weeks of infighting, GOP finally elects a new speaker — Rep. Mike Johnson, R-La… Donald Trump storms out of New York City courtroom… And “I want to win”: Why Trump-skeptical GOP donors are taking another look at supporting the former president.
But FIRST… These days, it’s been good to be an incumbent governor.
In fact, just one incumbent (Nevada’s Steve Sisolak) lost in last year’s gubernatorial contests across the country.
And ahead of next month’s race for Kentucky governor, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear has been riding on incumbency and a huge advantage over the airwaves in his matchup against Republican opponent Daniel Cameron.
Beshear has outspent Cameron on ads by more than a 5-to-1 margin in the general election, $21 million to $4 million, according to ad-spending numbers from AdImpact through Thursday.
When you add up all of the current ad spending (from the political parties and outside groups), Democrats still enjoy an almost 2-to-1 edge over the airwaves, $40 million to $24 million.
Beshear has been running advertisements touting his economic record, highlighting his bipartisan accomplishments and hitting Cameron on the issue of abortion.
Cameron and Republicans, meanwhile, have aired TV ads trumpeting Donald Trump’s endorsement of Cameron, knocking Beshear on education and his handling of Covid, and tying the Democratic governor to President Joe Biden.
We don’t know who will win the Nov. 7 gubernatorial contest in Kentucky — remember, Donald Trump won the state by nearly 26 points in 2020. And Beshear won his first term in 2019 by less than half a percentage point, or just over 5,000 votes.
But if Beshear comes out on top in this red state, he’ll be able to thank his incumbency and his big spending advantage.
Headline of the day
The number of the day is … 22
That’s how many days the House was without a speaker, until Republicans unanimously voted Wednesday to elect Rep, Mike Johnson, R-La., to the position.
Johnson will serve as the 56th speaker of the House and will immediately be forced to confront a range of issues, including a request from the White House for supplemental aid to Ukraine and Israel and an impending government funding deadline in mid-November.
NBC’s Sahil Kapur, Ali Vitali, Rebecca Kaplan and Kyle Stewart detail Johnson’s rise to third in the line of presidential succession after just under seven years as a congressman, including his support from former President Donald Trump and his role in promoting 2020 election denial.
Eyes on 2024: Biden’s balancing acts amid war abroad
In his response to the war between Israel and Hamas, President Joe Biden “chose not to make himself a wartime president,” writes NBC’s Jonathan Allen. Instead, Biden stressed the United States’ support for Israel, but also urged the country during his recent Oval Office address “not to be blinded by rage.”
Allen writes: “The outbreak of war in the Middle East has presented Biden with a series of balancing acts that carry substantive and political peril: keeping a lid on the Middle East, giving Israel space to pursue Hamas without endangering hostages, pushing a fractured Congress to fund Ukrainian and Israeli war efforts while providing humanitarian assistance for Palestinians, and avoiding actions and rhetoric that further divide his Democratic base.
On the political front, Biden’s strong support for Israel has alienated some Muslim and Arab Americans.
But the White House has been boosting its outreach to these communities, including having Biden’s speechwriter huddle with Arab and Muslim American officials to discuss that Oval Office Address, NBC’s Peter Nicholas, Natasha Korecki, Alex Seitz-Wald and Megan Lebowitz report.
In other campaign news…
House chaos on the campaign trail: Republican presidential candidates “didn’t mince their words when asked about the self-inflicted chaos on Capitol Hill,” writes NBC’s Alex Tabet. The hopefuls voiced their frustration and embarrassment with their party’s leadership battle, per Tabet and his fellow campaign embeds.
Rethinking Trump: Some GOP donors who were hoping to back a candidate other than Trump are now rethinking backing the former president, per NBC’s Matt Dixon, Katherine Doyle, Jonathan Allen and CNBC’s Brian Schwartz.
Dismissing Dean: Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn., is expected to launch a presidential bid Friday by filing to run in New Hampshire, and NBC’s Carol E. Lee and Monica Alba and Monica Alba report that Biden been “publicly indifferent and privately dismissive,” including ignoring a call from Phillips three months ago.
Israel and Iowa: The Associated Press details how support for Israel is now a top concern among evangelical voters in Iowa, a key constituency in the GOP primary.
Trump trial: Trump took the stand in the trial for a New York fraud case on Wednesday over his comments about the case despite a partial gag order, and he was ordered to pay a $10,000 fine for violating that order, per NBC’s Adam Reiss, Chloe Atkins and Dareh Gregorian. Trump later stormed out of the courtroom.
On the air: Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy is making his first six-figure TV ad buy in Iowa, reserving $190,000 worth of airtime starting Thursday and running through Nov. 6, per AdImpact.
Tim’s test: Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., traveled to Chicago this week and for the first time addressed a mainly Black audience. NBC’s Nnamdi Egwuonwu writes that Scott received mixed reviews.
Endorsement alert: Mississippi GOP Gov. Tate Reeves endorsed Trump’s 2024 presidential bid on Wednesday, NBC’s Jake Traylor reports. The move came less than two weeks before voters will head to the polls and decide whether to re-elect Reeves, as he faces a Democratic challenger that’s made the race closer than expected. Trump endorsed Reeves when he first ran for governor in 2019, but hasn’t yet weighed in this year.
New maps: North Carolina’s new congressional district map, which the state legislature approved Wednesday, includes 10 solidly Republican districts and three solidly Democratic ones, up from an even split of seven GOP and seven Democratic districts in current maps, Politico reports. After the map was approved Wednesday, former GOP Rep. Mark Walker dropped his bid for governor and opted to run for his old House seat instead.
Early voting continues in the Old Dominion: The Washington Post details Virginia GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s bet that supporting a 15-week statewide limit on abortions could help Republicans win back control of the state Senate and hold onto the General Assembly in upcoming elections. Meanwhile, NBC’s Jane C. Timm examines one county in the state as residents continue early voting months after election conspiracy theories consumed the area.
ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world
At least 15 people were killed by a shooter in Lewiston, Maine, and residents are being urged to shelter-in-place due to an ongoing manhunt for the suspected killer.
The United Auto Workers union and Ford have reached a tentative agreement, potentially ending a strike that affected multiple Ford factories across the U.S.
