Happening this Thursday: Nevada GOP caucuses take place from 8:00 p.m. ET to 10:30 p.m. ET, with 26 delegates at stake… U.S. Supreme Court hears oral arguments over whether Donald Trump can be barred from ballot in Colorado… President Joe Biden heads to Leesburg, Va., to address House Democrats at their retreat… And Biden administration considers executive action to deter illegal migration at southern border.
But FIRST… It’s been a good week for Donald Trump as he looks to essentially lock up the GOP presidential nomination over the next month.
Yet, it’s also been a chaotic and unstable week for him — and a really bad week for his political party — underscoring what political life will be like if/when he becomes the presumptive nominee.
Here’s been the good news for Trump: He’s on track to win all of Nevada’s delegates tonight. His top GOP rival, Nikki Haley, just lost to “None of the above.” Polling right now either finds him narrowly ahead or facing a 50-50 jump ball against President Joe Biden. And Biden keeps on mixing up his French/German leaders, as the NBC News poll shows 76% of voters having concerns about the president’s age and fitness.
Here’s been the chaos and instability for Trump: A federal appeals court rejected his claim that he’s immune from prosecution in the election interference case, and the U.S. Supreme Court today considers whether he might even be on the ballot in Colorado and elsewhere in 2024.
Oh, and here’s been the bad news for the Republican Party: Trump helped kill the immigration deal that members of his OWN party had been crafting, giving Democrats a boost in their efforts to neutralize their disadvantage on immigration. And the instability extends to the national party, as Trump appears to be keen on rearranging the leadership inside the Republican National Committee — just nine months before the general election.
Good news for Trump.
Plenty of instability and chaos.
And Republicans walking on eggshells.
Headline of the day
The number of the day is … 26
That’s how many Republican delegates are at stake in Thursday’s Nevada caucuses, in which Trump is the only major candidate on the ballot. The Silver State delegates amount to roughly 2% of the number of delegates needed to secure the Republican nomination.
Nevada’s at-large and congressional district delegates are allocated proportionally, but Trump could win all of them. That’s because former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley opted instead to participate in Tuesday’s primary, which the national party did not recognize.
The caucuses run until 7:30 p.m. local time Thursday (10:30 p.m. ET). Read more about Nevada’s caucuses and see the results on NBCNews.com.
Eyes on November: Immigration takes center stage
The bipartisan immigration bill’s implosion hasn’t just brought the issue to the center of the political stage, but it’s exposed some important fault lines within the debate.
As NBC’s Sahil Kapur and Frank Thorp V write, the lifecycle of the bill itself, negotiated by a key Republican and blessed by its leadership but then shoved aside just days later, shows just how much the party’s center of gravity has shifted away from Republicans like Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and toward Trump.
And it’s giving Democrats an opening on an issue where they’ve usually been on defense — Trump had a 35-point edge over Biden on controlling immigration and securing the border in the new NBC News poll.
Now, the Biden administration is considering acting unilaterally with new executive action to address the surge in migrants at the southern border. And as NBC’s Mike Memoli reports, Team Biden thinks they can message on the idea that Republicans, backed by Trump, abandoned legislation to shore up the border, trying to force Republicans to wear both congressional inaction on this specific issue, but also the broader dysfunction in Congress.
In other campaign news …
Meeting in Michigan: Senior White House officials are headed to Michigan on Thursday to hear from Muslim American and Arab American community leaders about their concerns amid the war in the Middle East.
Trump trial: In a filing Tuesday, attorneys for the former president said they will seek to get the criminal charges against him in the Mar-a-Lago classified documents case thrown out.
Musical chairs: The competition over the next Republican National Committee chair has already begun as Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel’s days appear to be numbered. RNC Co-Chair Drew McKissick is already jockeying for the top spot, per NBC’s Vaughn Hillyard.
No spoilers: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is running an independent campaign for president, tells NBC’s Vaughn Hillyard that he isn’t worried about being a “spoiler” in the upcoming presidential election.
Suspended: Author Marianne Williamson suspended her long shot campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination on Wednesday night.
Abortion arguments: The Florida Supreme Court on Wednesday heard arguments regarding a proposed constitutional amendment on abortion rights that could be headed to the state’s ballot in November.
He’s (almost) running: Montana GOP Rep. Matt Rosendale is planning to announce a run for Senate as soon as this weekend, setting up a contentious primary with businessman Tim Sheehy, NBC’s Henry Gomez reports. Meanwhile, former GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg is eyeing a comeback bid for Rosendale’s seat, Politico reports.
Business on the board: Businessman Bernie Moreno casts himself as a “political outsider” in Ohio’s GOP Senate primary, but The Associated Press reports he sat on several state government boards in the past. And on Wednesday, the conservative Club for Growth Action launched a TV ad in the Buckeye State touting Trump’s endorsement of Moreno.
Casey’s case: Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., could face his toughest re-election fight yet this year, NBC’s Ali Vitali and Alex Rhoades report from Philadelphia.
Israel politics: The so-called Squad of House progressives are stepping up their fundraising as they gear up for challenges fueled in part by pro-Israel PACs, per the Associated Press. Meanwhile, Democratic Majority for Israel PAC made its first House primary endorsements, per Politico.
ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world:
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will testify before the House Armed Services Committee on Feb. 29 about his recent hospitalization, which he kept secret for days before telling the president and the public.
NBC’s David Ingram examined a series of bomb threats that occurred at places across the country previously targeted by Chaya Raichik, or “Libs of TikTok” on social media.
The leader of a militia behind last week’s deadly attack in Jordan was killed by a U.S. drone strike.
