Happening this Wednesday: RNC holds its winter meeting in Las Vegas amid Trump vs. Haley contest… Haley’s campaign manager warns donors that nominating Trump could cost GOP… Kyrsten Sinema’s fundraising slows as she weighs re-election bid… Republicans on House committee vote to advance articles of impeachment against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas… And NBC’s Chuck Todd looks at America’s dysfunctional border debate.
But FIRST… Not only is former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley on the verge of losing the next two major GOP nominating contests in Nevada and South Carolina; she could also fail to win a single delegate from those races.
The delegate math from Nevada is clear: Since Trump is the only major candidate competing in the Feb. 8 caucuses (which awards delegates) — and since Haley is competing instead in the Feb. 6 Nevada primary (which doesn’t) — Trump is on track to win all of Nevada’s 26 delegates.
Yet the delegate situation in South Carolina isn’t as well known. The state has a “winner-take-all” approach to its 50 delegates, divided among at-large and congressional district delegates: A candidate gets three delegates for each congressional district he or she wins, and the overall statewide winner gets the remaining delegates.
Bottom line: South Carolina — unlike Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada — doesn’t award its delegates proportionally, so if Trump wins the state by double digits or more, he’d likely win all 50 delegates.
Haley’s best chance in her home state might be winning the three delegates from the state’s Charleston-area congressional district, which has more Dem and moderate voters.
That could all grow Trump’s current 32 vs. 17 delegate lead over Haley to 108 to 17 — all before the Super Tuesday contests.
(FYI: There will also be caucuses, conventions and primaries in the Virgin Islands, Idaho, Michigan, D.C. and North Dakota between now and Super Tuesday, and those contests could go in Trump’s direction, too.)
After the New Hampshire primary, the Haley camp released a memo arguing how they can win delegates particularly in Super Tuesday states with more open primary rules (where independents and/or Democrats can vote).
But earlier this week, when Trump’s top campaign advisers released a memo arguing that Haley doesn’t have a viable path to the GOP presidential nomination, the Haley camp responded with a “Mean Girls” movie meme: “Then why is Donald Trump so obsessed with us?”
What was missing from that Haley response, however, was delegate math or polling showing how to overtake Trump.
Headline of the day
The number of the day is … 18
That’s how many House lawmakers on the House Homeland Security Committee — all Republicans — voted to send two articles of impeachment against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas to the House floor early Wednesday morning after a more than 15-hour hearing, NBC’s Julia Jester and Rebecca Kaplan report.
If a majority of lawmakers vote to impeach Mayorkas, it will be the second time ever (and the first time since 1876) that the House successfully impeached a Cabinet member, NBC’s Kyle Stewart reports.
The impeachment articles against Mayorkas, written by House Republicans, allege that he “has willfully and systemically refused to comply with Federal immigration laws,” and that he breached the “public trust.” Mayorkas said the claims he has failed to enforce immigration laws are “false.”
A full vote to impeach Mayorkas on the House floor could come as early as next week, Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., said on Tuesday, before the Homeland Security Committee voted.
Eyes on November: Donor drama as fundraising reports loom
Nikki Haley is looking to stockpile resources for a protracted fight with Trump, traveling to New York this week for fundraisers, while her campaign manager Betsy Ankney laid out the stakes of her fight to a group of GOP megadonors on Tuesday.
“This is a fight for freedom,” Ankney told the group of donors, known as the American Opportunity Alliance, per a source familiar with the Haley campaign’s presentation. She also warned that Trump could drag down other GOP candidates on the ballot in 2024, and could cost Republicans control of Congress.
The Washington Post reported that Trump campaign co-chair Susie Wiles also met with the donor group on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, billionaire Ken Griffin recently cut a $5 million check to the pro-Haley super PAC SFA Fund Inc., CNBC’s Brian Schwartz reports.
Fundraising reports due Wednesday to the Federal Election Commission will provide more clues about the financial state of Haley’s campaign, her super PAC and other campaigns and outside groups. The reports will provide a look under the hood for Haley and Trump’s campaigns during the last three months of last year, while PACs will file reports that cover the last six months of 2023.
The New York Times reports that Trump’s PACs will show that he spent around $50 million in legal fees in 2023.
And a new filing from Win it Back PAC, a group that spent on ads opposing Trump but later pulled back, got an infusion of cash from Never Back Down, a super PAC supporting Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, per Politico.
In other campaign news …
Across the aisle: For Haley to do well in South Carolina, she might need Democrats to decide to vote in the GOP primary rather than the Democratic contest, NBC’s Matt Dixon and Jonathan Allen report.
Clyburn’s cause: Biden’s support has been slipping among young Black voters, and Biden supporters like Rep. Jim Clyburn, D-S.C., are trying to win them back, NBC’s Peter Nicholas and Aaron Gilchrist report from the Palmetto State.
Ballot drama: An Illinois election board voted Tuesday to reject a challenge to Trump’s position on the state’s primary ballot due to his actions on Jan. 6, 2021. Biden also said Tuesday that it’s “fine” for Trump to stay on the ballot in 2024.
Keep on trucking: Trump on Wednesday will meet with members of the Teamsters Union’s executive board as he looks to take on Biden, who has cast himself as the most pro-union president in the country’s history, per the Associated Press.
Sinema’s decision: Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s latest fundraising report filed late Tuesday night found her fundraising dropped again in the final fundraising quarter of 2023, but she still has plenty of cash to spend on a re-election bid in Arizona if she decides to run. The Washington Post reports that her team is weighing whether voters will reward her bipartisan dealmaking as she faces that decision.
Eyes on the majority: Democrats are ramping up their spending in a special, open-seat Pennsylvania House election set to take place on Feb. 13, which will determine control of the state House chamber, NBC’s Adam Edelman reports.
Impeachment consequences: Trump on Tuesday backed a Republican candidate in Texas challenging the state House speaker in a primary, who last year voted to impeach state Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican, The Hill reports.
Dysfunction on the border: NBC’s Chuck Todd examines the political implications for both parties of the bipartisan immigration bill being negotiated in the Senate.
ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world
Rep, Cori Bush, D-Mo, confirmed on Tuesday that the Justice Department is investigating her campaign’s spending on security services, but she denied any wrongdoing.
The first day of talks between China and the U.S. about stemming the flow of fentanyl into the U.S. were “frank and honest,” one official involved told NBC News’ Janis Mackey Frayer, Jennifer Jett and Henry Austin.
If the U.S. cuts off aid to Ukraine, it would be a mistake of “historic proportions,” CIA Director William Burns wrote in Foreign Affairs on Tuesday.
CLARIFICATION: This story was updated to reflect that Nevada and South Carolina are the next two major GOP nomination contests on the Republican presidential calendar. The Virgin Islands’ territorial caucus, which awards four delegates, also is taking place on Feb. 8, the same date as the Nevada caucuses.
