Happening this Thursday: We’re five days away from the New Hampshire primary… Nikki Haley and Dean Phillips campaign in the Granite State… Donald Trump steps up his attacks on Haley… President Biden heads to North Carolina to discuss the economy at 2:15 pm ET… And No Labels holds a news conference in DC at 10:00 am ET.
But FIRST… In New Hampshire, independent/undeclared voters make up 39% of the total electorate — more than registered Democrats (30%) and registered Republicans (31%).
And in their TV ads and campaign messaging, both former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn., have been fighting over these same independent/undeclared voters, who can choose either a Republican presidential primary ballot or a Democratic one.
Here’s Haley on the campaign trail: “Seventy-five percent of Americans don’t want a Trump-Biden rematch. The majority of Americans don’t want either one of them. I mean, are we really at the point that we’re going to put two 80-year-olds as our options?”
Here’s Phillips: “But I can tell you this: The two leading candidates right now — on both the left and the right for the U.S. presidency — are absolutely not in positions to understand it, prepare us for it, anticipate it and lead us into the next century.”
Here’s Haley in one of her TV ads in New Hampshire: “The two most disliked politicians in America? Trump and Biden. Both are consumed by chaos, negativity and grievances of the past.”
And here’s a pro-Phillips TV ad in the Granite State: “Democrats, independents — wake up. At a critical moment in history, [Biden vs. Trump] is a choice no one wants, with Trump poised to win.”
With Phillips barely registering the polls — and with the Democratic Party not even officially recognizing the New Hampshire’s Dem primary — this competition over the same independent/undeclared voters could end up hurting Haley more.
After all, Phillips winning just 2% to 3% of these voters could doom Haley, who is already trailing Donald Trump in the New Hampshire polls.
But there’s maybe an even bigger story behind this Haley-Phillips messaging in New Hampshire: If the 2024 general election is indeed going to be rematch between Biden and Trump, someone else next summer and fall — Robert Kennedy Jr., No Labels, the Green and Libertarian parties — is going to repeat it.
They’ll be making the case to the public how unappealing another Biden vs. Trump election could be.
Headline of the day
The number of the day is … 39
That’s how many House lawmakers have announced they are not seeking re-election in 2024, following South Carolina GOP Rep. Jeff Duncan’s announcement on Wednesday that he would leave Congress at the end of his term.
“At some point in a career, one needs to step aside and allow others to bring fresh ideas and abilities into the fight for Liberty,” Duncan said in a statement.
With Duncan’s announcement, 9% of House lawmakers will not be running for re-election next year, opting instead to run for higher office or leave politics altogether.
Most of the retirements are in safely Republican or safely Democratic seats — like Duncan’s. But some of the earliest-announced exits on the Democratic side impact battleground districts, like Michigan’s 7th District, a competitive district where Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is running for Senate instead of for re-election.
Eyes on November: Trump steps up Haley attacks in New Hampshire
Former President Donald Trump took aim at Nikki Haley during a speech in New Hampshire on Wednesday, peppering his stump speech with attacks on his former United Nations ambassador.
Trump said Republicans would lose the House and Senate if Haley is the GOP nominee, telling the crowd, “A vote for Nikki Haley this Tuesday is a vote for Joe Biden and a Democrat Congress this November because that’s what’s gonna happen. But if she wins, Biden wins,” NBC’s Jake Traylor reports.
Haley responded as Trump’s speech was underway, posting on X, “Trump is confused about his own record. Under Trump’s leadership, Republicans lost the House, the Senate, and the White House. I crush Biden by double digits, while Trump barely squeaks by Biden on a good day,” per NBC’s Sarah Dean.
But Haley and Trump have not come face-to-face yet in the campaign, with Trump refusing to participate in any debates. After the Iowa caucuses, Haley also declined to participate unless Trump is onstage, prompting CNN to cancel its debate, which had been scheduled for Sunday.
Haley, meanwhile, has kept a relatively light schedule in the Granite State and she is not taking questions from voters at her events. Some New Hampshire Republicans suggested those strategies could “doom” her campaign, write NBC’s Jonathan Allen, Henry J. Gomez and Allan Smith. Haley’s spokesperson dismissed suggestions that she is not as active as “complete and total nonsense.”
In other campaign news …
Veepstakes: Trump and some allies are looking at New York GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik as a potential vice presidential pick, CNBC’s Brian Schwartz and NBC’s Katherine Doyle and Scott Wong report.
Staff shakeups: Never Back Down, the super PAC backing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, laid off staffers on Wednesday, including in Nevada, per the New York Times. DeSantis’ own campaign, meanwhile, is moving the majority of its staff to South Carolina, NBC’s Alec Hernández reports.
Biden’s bucks: President Joe Biden announced Wednesday that his campaign raised $1.6 million in the 24 hours after Trump won the Iowa caucuses. Biden’s campaign is also hitting the airwaves in South Carolina, spending $149,000 on an ad buy ahead of the Feb. 3 primary, per AdImpact.
I’m sorry, so sorry: White House chief of staff Jeff Zients phoned former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson on Wednesday to apologize for the Democratic National Committee’s jab in response to Hutchinson’s announcement he was ending his presidential bid, per NBC’s Peter Nicholas.
Abortion politics: NBC’s Julie Tsirkin and Kate Santaliz detail national Democrats’ “all-out reproductive freedom campaign” following successful abortion rights efforts at the state level.
She’s running: Nella Domenici, a former hedge fund executive and daughter of former New Mexico GOP Sen. Pete Domenici, announced Wednesday that she’ll run for Senate against Democratic Sen. Martin Heinrich.
He’s back: Former Democratic Rep. Dennis Kucinich, who made unsuccessful runs for president, filed paperwork on Wednesday to run for Congress as an independent against Rep. Max Miller, R-Ohio, Cleveland.com reports.
Mace race: South Carolina GOP Rep. Nancy Mace’s former chief of staff is considering running against her this year, Politico reports.
Dueling ads: Democrats and Republicans released new attack ads on TV Wednesday in New York’s 3rd District, where Republican Mazi Melesa Pilip and Democrat Tom Suozzi are vying to replace ousted GOP Rep. George Santos in a special election next month.
ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world
Top congressional leaders met with President Biden at the White House Wednesday to discuss his request for more aid for Ukraine, Israel and border security.
Meanwhile, GOP senators on Wednesday urged their House colleagues to accept a separate immigration deal, telling them that Democrats likely won’t accept similar legislation if Trump wins back the White House.
The U.S. struck 14 Houthi sites in Yemen Wednesday night, while Pakistan on Thursday morning launched deadly strikes against sites in Iran.
