If it’s MONDAY… President Biden visits London ahead of key NATO summit… Biden defends controversial decision to give cluster bombs to Ukraine… 2024 GOP presidential candidate Doug Burgum says he won’t do business with Donald Trump — and says much more — in “Meet the Press” interview… Republican Sam Brown launches NV-SEN bid… And the filing deadline for 2nd-quarter fundraising reports is just days away.
But FIRST… It’s now official: The Republican Iowa caucuses are just six months away, with the state GOP announcing that the first presidential-nominating contest will take place on Jan. 15, 2024.
And with that rapidly approaching date, here’s maybe the most important number worth watching over the next six months.
49%.
That’s the share of Republican primary voters who believe that Donald Trump should remain the party’s leader, versus a combined 50% who think it’s time to consider other leaders (21%) or who want to go in a completely different direction (29%), according to last month’s national NBC News poll.
For one thing, 49% is a big number, especially in a multi-candidate field.
Remember, in the 2016 Republican presidential race, the winning candidate percentages in Iowa (28%), New Hampshire (35%), South Carolina (33%) and Nevada (46%) were all smaller than 49%.
Yet on the other hand, 49% isn’t an insurmountable figure if/when the GOP contest turns into two-person race.
So there’s a narrow opening IF Trump’s opposition can settle on a single alternative.
Of course, a national poll doesn’t necessarily reflect what will happen in Iowa — and we’ll have to wait on the next Ann Selzer/Des Moines Register poll for a good gauge on that electorate.
But we’ve said this before, and we’ll say it again: The larger the GOP field going into Iowa, the lower the winning percentage Trump (or anyone else) needs to win in Iowa.
And if someone is going to stop Trump from being the GOP’s 2024 presidential nominee, it’s got to start in the Hawkeye State.
Headline of the dayData Download: The number of the day is … $20 million
That’s how much money Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ campaign announced that it raised in the first six weeks since DeSantis jumped into the race. That haul exceeded Trump’s previous fundraising quarter from January through March, which totaled $18.3 million.
It’s not yet clear how much the Trump campaign specifically raised during the second quarter, which spanned from April through June. Trump’s joint fundraising committee — which raises funds both for the campaign and Trump’s leadership PAC — raised $35 million, but it’s not clear how much money was doled out to the two different entities.
The latest campaign fundraising reports, which will cover how much campaigns raised and spent from April through June, are due to the Federal Election Commission on Saturday. But some campaigns and outside groups have announced their fundraising hauls ahead of the deadline as shows of strength.
The pro-DeSantis super PAC also announced raising $130 million, but more than $80 million of that haul was transferred from a group that backed DeSantis’ gubernatorial run last year. Fundraising reports for some super PACs, which will cover the first six months of the year, are due to the FEC on July 30.
Other numbers to know:
More than $9 million: How much special counsel Jack Smith and the Justice Department have spent in the first four months of investigations into Trump’s handling of classified documents and his role in the Jan. 6, 2021 riot at the Capitol. The grand jury involved in the Jan. 6 probe has heard testimony from “dozens” of witnesses, NBC News’ Ryan J. Reilly and Michael Mitsanas report.
709,786: The number of signatures a pro-abortion rights group submitted in Ohio to put a state constitutional amendment protecting the right to an abortion on the ballot in November, which was nearly double the required number of signatures, per Cleveland.com.
3.6%: The U.S. unemployment rate in June, although the jobs added last month fell short of the number added in May, per CNBC’s Jeff Cox.
2: How many public health officials have left Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ administration recently, per NBC News’ Matt Dixon.
6: The number of people indicted over a straw-donor scheme aimed at boosting New York City Mayor Eric Adams’ campaign in 2021.
77: How many years President Jimmy Carter and former first lady Rosalynn Carter have been married. They celebrated their 77th wedding anniversary on Friday.
Eyes on 2024: Doug Burgum discusses Trump, China and abortion
North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum may not be the most well-known candidate in the GOP presidential field, but he’s working to change that. Burgum’s campaign has spent more than $5 million on ads since he jumped into the race last month, outspending every other campaign or outside group on the airwaves during that time.
Burgum sat down with “Meet the Press” in Fargo, N.D., to talk about his White House run. Here are some of the takeaways:
On Trump: Asked if he would do business with former President Donald Trump, Burgum, a former software executive, said, “I don’t think so,” explaining: “I just think that it’s important that you’re judged by the company you keep.”
On the culture wars: “Where I’m at is I believe in states’ rights, and I believe that the president of the United States has got a defined set of things they’re supposed to work on, and it’s not every culture war topic. These are things that are left to the state. As president, things that you’re supposed to focus on, things like the economy, like energy policy, which is completely tied to national security, and part of national security is the border.”
On China: “We are in a cold war in China, we just won’t admit it,” Burgum said, later describing Chinese President Xi Jinping as a “brutal dictator.”
On abortion: “I support the Dobbs decision, and this is the decision that should be left to the states. And what’s going to pass in North Dakota is not ever going to pass in California and New York, and wouldn’t even pass in the state of Minnesota. I — that’s why I’m on the record saying that I would not sign a federal abortion ban.”
On picking Supreme Court justices: Burgum noted his work vetting own judicial appointees in North Dakota and said, “And we don’t have litmus tests. We try to find the people that are most qualified to do the job, and I think that, again, if there is any kind of litmus test, it’s are they going to follow the Constitution and follow the law, and not legislate from the bench?”
On Ukraine: “We have to win the war in Ukraine.”
Check out the full interview here.
In other campaign news…
Party time: NBC News’ Matt Dixon details how DeSantis’ presidential bid is giving new energy to the Florida Democratic Party, which has struggled in recent election cycles.
Trump travels: Roger Stone joined Trump on his plane to Las Vegas over the weekend, NBC News’ Vaughn Hillyard reports. Trump also chatted with Stone and actors Mel Gibson and Mark Wahlberg at a mixed martial arts event in Vegas, per Hillyard and NBC’s Jake Traylor.
Taking on Trump: A new group tied to the conservative Club for Growth is launching a $3.6 million ad buy hitting Trump in Iowa and South Carolina, per Politico.
All eyes on Iowa: Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds called a special session starting this week to pass new abortion restrictions. Reynolds has been in the spotlight as presidential hopefuls have traveled to the early caucus state. And though she has said she won’t endorse in the primary, the Trump team believes she is favoring DeSantis, per the New York Times.
Backing Biden: New York Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said in a podcast interview that she will support Biden’s re-election bid.
Abortion politics: Democrats are eager to run on the abortion issue, and they are already targeting some likely GOP Senate candidates on the issue, even though those candidates aren’t officially running yet, NBC’s Adam Edelman reports.
Rolling the dice: Republican Sam Brown announced Monday that he is running against Nevada Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen, and he quickly earned an endorsement from National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Steve Daines. Brown made an unsuccessful run for Senate last year, losing the GOP primary to Adam Laxalt.
Big Sky bucks: Republican Tim Sheehy is hitting the airwaves in his Senate bid, launching a $28,000 cable buy on Fox News, per AdImpact. Top Republicans have continued to coalesce around his bid, with GOP Rep. Ryan Zinke recently endorsing the former Navy SEAL.
Raskin passes on MD-SEN: Democratic Rep. Jaime Raskin Raskin announced that he will not run for Maryland’s open Senate seat.
Roland’s running: Texas Democratic state Sen. Roland Gutierrez announced Monday that he is launching a run against GOP Sen. Ted Cruz. Gutierrez gained national attention as a legislator representing Uvalde, where 19 students and two teachers were killed in a mass shooting at an elementary school last year.
House re-runs: Some House candidates who lost last year announced recently that they are running again, including former New York Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones, who lost a crowded primary last year, and Democrat Tony Vargas, who is taking on Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb. Republican Tom Barrett, who lost to Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin, announced that he is running for her open House seat.
A Grace-ful exit: Rep. Grace Napolitano, D-Calif., announced that she is not running for re-election, and she endorsed state Sen. Bob Archuleta to replace her in Congress, per the Los Angeles Times.
ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world:
Trump aide Walt Nauta pleaded not guilty in federal court last week on the charges related to his handling of classified documents.
House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer is seeking information from the Secret Service about a bag of cocaine that was found at the White House last week.
