If it’s WEDNESDAY… Eight candidates — minus Donald Trump — participate at first GOP presidential debate in Milwaukee beginning at 9:00 pm ET… NBC’s Henry Gomez and Allan Smith preview the different storylines entering tonight’s debate… New release from NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of Iowa shows which issues are most popular (and least popular) among likely GOP caucusgoers… And Fulton County Sheriff’s Office releases first mug shots from indictments over alleged efforts to overturn 2020 election.
But FIRST… These new numbers from our NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of Iowa tell what’s likely the most important GOP dynamic heading into tonight’s debate.
Republican voters don’t want the candidates attacking former President Donald Trump over his indictments and other investigations.
According to the poll, 54% of likely GOP caucusgoers say they are LESS likely to vote for a candidate who aggressively attacks Trump for the actions that led the multiple indictments against him, versus just 16% who are MORE likely to vote for such a candidate.
That’s the most unpopular position out of seven different issues the poll tested.
(The most popular positions among likely GOP caucusgoers? It’s sending the U.S. military to the border and fighting the left’s “woke” agenda.)
In fact, the poll finds there are more likely Iowa GOP caucusgoers who believe Trump committed serious crimes (26%) than who say they’re likely to vote for a candidate who criticizes him over the alleged crimes (16%).
And this isn’t the only part of the NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll showing that attacking Trump over his legal challenges isn’t a winner for Trump’s rivals.
Just look at the candidate favorable/unfavorable scores: Trump’s most consistent GOP critics all have net ratings that are underwater among likely GOP caucusgoers.
- Mike Pence: 42% favorable, 53% unfavorable (-11)
- Asa Hutchinson: 20% favorable, 32% unfavorable (-12)
- Chris Christie: 28% favorable, 60% unfavorable (-32)
Make no mistake: You’ll likely see some of Trump’s rivals criticize him -- over his no-show, his reluctance to embrace six-week abortion bans, maybe even the GOP’s losses in 2018, 2020 and 2022.
But don’t expect many of them to go there over Trump’s multiple indictments — including the fact that the former president will be surrendering to authorities in Georgia on Thursday.
Because GOP voters don’t want them to go there.
Then again, voters also say they don’t like negative ads — but that doesn’t stop candidates from airing them.
Headline of the day
Data Download: The number of the day is … 1,000
That’s how many migrants the U.S. sends back over the border to Mexico per day, on average, compared with about 3,000 per day before Title 42 ended in May, NBC News’ Julia Ainsley reports.
That means the U.S. is also sending back a smaller proportion of those crossing the border each day. Now, about 14% of the migrants who cross the Southern border per day are sent back, compared to an average of about 32% who were sent back daily in April.
Read more on NBCNews.com.
Other numbers to know:
1,000 to 1,100: The number of people who may still be missing in the wake of Maui wildfires, officials said Tuesday.
4: The number of states — Idaho, Montana, Nevada and Oregon — that broke rainfall records due to Tropical Storm Hilary.
7.48%: The new average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage, the highest it has been since November 2000, CNBC reports.
17%: How much sheltered homelessness in the U.S. decreased from 2019 to 2021, according to new figures from the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
340,000: The number of UPS employees covered by a new five-year union contract negotiated by the Teamsters union and ratified by workers on Tuesday.
$15: The new hourly minimum wage for Uber drivers in Minneapolis, a rate negotiated by the mayor as he vetoed a minimum wage bill that would have applied to drivers from all ride-hailing apps, not just Uber.
20: The number of people who have died due to wildfires in Greece.
Eyes on 2024: Vivek is rising, but rivals hope he stumbles at debate
Wednesday’s debate comes at a key moment for businessman Vivek Ramaswamy. Hardly a household name when he launched his bid (he barely registered in early polls weeks after he jumped into the race), Ramaswamy will now stand at center stage with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis during the party’s first debate as the second-highest polling candidate in the race.
Wednesday night will give the Ohio businessman his highest-profile shot yet to keep the momentum going. But his position on the stage, and in the race (as one of the candidates more vocally defending former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate in the debate), likely means that his rivals will be looking to take him down a peg.
For clues on where they might start, look to the headlines.
Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley started the week by blasting Ramaswamy for recent comments he made about Israel. Ramaswamy said on a podcast earlier this month that there’s “there’s no North-Star commitment to one country other than the United States of America.” He added that while wants to abide by commitments the U.S. has already made to Israel, the goal should be to build Israel up so that come 2028, “additional aid won’t be necessary.” Haley took issue with those comments, issuing a statement to criticize Ramaswamy.
And yesterday, Ramaswamy and his campaign were playing defense after he was quoted in an interview with The Atlantic saying it’s “legitimate” to ask “how many police, how many federal agents, were on the planes that hit the Twin Towers.” He added that while he believes the answer is zero, that a “comprehensive assessment” of what happened on 9/11 would answer that question, comments he made while discussing questions he had about the motivations of those who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
While Ramaswamy and his campaign have accused The Atlantic of taking him out of context, the outlet responded by releasing a more-than four-minute audio recording of the interview quoted in the story showing he was quoted accurately.
Haley’s criticism could resurface on the debate stage tonight, as could an attack on Ramaswamy citing his comments about 9/11. How he handles those issues, at center-stage, could prove pivotal for his candidacy.
In other campaign news …
DeSantis on defense: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis defended his comments suggesting some Trump followers are “listless vessels,” telling Fox News that he was referring to members of Congress who have called him “a Republican in Name Only,” saying “they’re putting entertainment and personality over principle.”
Trade talk: Trump has been considering proposing a universal tariff, and discussed the policy at a recent dinner with his economic advisers, per the Washington Post. But the Post reports, “Economists of both parties said Trump’s tariff proposal is extremely dangerous.”
Livin’ on a prayer: The Associated Press delves into former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley and GOP Sen. Tim Scott’s religious roots in South Carolina, and whether the two candidates of color can appeal to their party’s white evangelical base.
Getting to the debate: Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson’s last-minute donor boost was helped along by his super PAC, which paid college students $20 for each donor they recruited who gave $1 to Hutchinson’s campaign, Politico reports.
Taking a side: Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy is endorsing Trump, per Politico, becoming the third GOP governor to back the former president.
ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world:
Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass blasted Texas Gov. Greg Abbott for sending buses of migrants to the city during an unprecedented tropical storm.
The state of Texas went to court Tuesday to defend its use of buoys in the Rio Grande to deter migrants from crossing the Southern border via the river.
Former federal prosecutor and former Obama-era White House deputy counsel Ed Siskel will be the White House’s new top lawyer, Biden announced Tuesday.
Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo is set to visit China next week for high-level talks with Chinese officials.
