The 2022 elections are a little more than a week away, and if Democrats are going to defy the usual pattern of midterms (big losses for the party in power), they are going to need some parts of the electorate to turn out more than expected.
One group near the top of that list is younger voters, those under 35. It’s sometimes a struggle to turn out those voters in non-presidential election years, but for Democrats, they are a crucial bloc.
The latest NBC News poll shows why those voters matter so much. Of all the age cohorts, they lean the most Democratic — and it’s not close.
The poll finds that 18- to 34-year-old voters favor a Democratic-controlled Congress by 30 points — 60% favor Democratic control, compared with 30% who favor the Republicans’ having the reins of power. The split is close among those in the 35-49 age group; it leans Republican by 2 points. And among voters 50 and over, there is a stronger 11-point Republican advantage.
That’s what makes young voters so important for Democrats. It’s not just that they are the only age group that leans Democratic; it’s that their partisan lean is so much stronger than any other. Cranking up their turnout by even a small amount could have a big impact in a tight race.
The challenge for Democrats is to get young voters to turn out for a midterm election.
Data from the U.S. Census Current Population Survey shows how much young voter turnout falls off in non-presidential election years. The census uses a slightly different measurement for the group, 18- to 29-year-old voters.
Voter turnout falls among all groups in midterm elections, but the drop among young voters is especially steep. From the 2008 presidential election to the 2010 midterms, turnout among voters 18-29 dropped by 27 points. From 2012 to 2014, it dropped 26 points. The one big exception is turnout from 2016 to 2018, when it still fell, but by only 10 points.
And remember, the 2018 midterms were good for the Democrats in the House. They picked up 41 seats.
So where do things stand with young voters with Election Day 2022 closing in? Comparing this NBC News poll to previous years (again using 18- to 34-year-olds as the age group) shows a complicated picture.
Currently, 42% of voters 18 to 34 say they are very interested in this election; that is, they rate their interest level at a 9 or 10 on a scale of 10. That’s markedly better than in 2014, when only 29% of voters in that age group said they were very interested. But it’s about 9 percentage points below the enthusiasm level in the group four years ago.
That’s worth noting because when the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision overturned the constitutional right to an abortion this year, some Democrats hoped the ruling might supercharge turnout among younger voters. The latest NBC News poll suggests that Dobbs may have fired them up some, but not to 2018 levels, at least not yet.
And the poll may have another point of concern for Democrats. Young voters do seem like they are starting to tune in to the election, but not as much as the electorate as a whole.
Before this latest survey, a merge of NBC News polls for the year showed that 35% of 18- to 34-year-olds were very interested in the midterm election — again, that’s compared to 42% now. That’s an improvement of 7 percentage points among the group, which isn't bad.
But the increase in interest among voters overall has been sharper — "all voters" have gone from 59% saying they are very interested in the election to 70%. That’s an increase of 11 percentage points. In other words, young voters may be more focused on the midterms than they were earlier this year, but they are losing ground to the overall electorate in relative terms.
None of this is definitive. It could be that election interest among young voters is going to spike very late. It’s also possible that even if they aren’t especially “interested” in the election this year, they remember that this is the first post-Dobbs midterm election and plan to vote regardless. And, of course, interest might vary sharply by state depending on candidates and issues on the ballot.
But as of now, young voters look very Democratic but not especially enthusiastic about 2022, at least not compared to the electorate overall. And for Democrats that’s probably not enough.