If it’s TUESDAY … Former President Donald Trump will be arraigned in New York City at 2:15 p.m. ET in hush money probe … Trump will make a public address from his Florida residence at 8:15 p.m. ET … Speaker Kevin McCarthy plans Wednesday meeting with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen … And voters are heading to the polls in the closely watched Wisconsin Supreme Court race and the Chicago mayoral runoff.
But FIRST … Tuesday marks yet another election day where former President Donald Trump threatens to block out the sun — this time overshadowing pivotal elections in Wisconsin and Chicago.
Trump’s indictment will be historic — but today is just the beginning. And especially with the indictment still sealed, there’s more to take in than to say at this point.
But we’ll have two key results today that will tell us a lot about where things are headed in politics: The appetites of both the Republican and Democratic bases, the electoral dynamics in a key swing state, the political power of appeals to the center, and how the politics of two key issues, crime and abortion, may be influencing it all.
Chicago’s mayoral race, which pits Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson against former Chicago schools chief Paul Vallas, asks the Democratic base (particularly nonwhite voters) key questions about where they want their party to go.
On one side is Johnson, a progressive Black Democrat backed by prominent national progressives and some key city figures, a candidate who aligns himself with the teachers union and previously praised the “defund the police” movement. On the other, a white and more-moderate Democrat in Vallas, who has made increasing police resources a key tenet of his campaign as he’s unveiled endorsements from key Black leaders in the state, as well as a former Illinois governor and its senior senator.
While Chicago’s race will take the temperature of the Democratic base, Wisconsin will do double duty — giving an important look at the GOP base while providing important clues about where the political winds are blowing in a key battleground state.
Will Republicans in the deeply polarized state turn out for a good old-fashioned ideological fight, with the balance of the court at stake? Or has the party’s Trump-era realignment sapped them of some of their power?
While Republican margins have grown in rural parts of the state, they’ve shrunk in the suburbs, particularly the so-called WOW (Washington, Ozaukee and Waukesha) counties around Milwaukee.
Liberal Milwaukee County Circuit Court Judge Janet Protasiewicz is facing off against conservative Dan Kelly, a former justice, in a race that’s technically nonpartisan — though in reality it’s been anything but, with ads blanketing the airwaves on focusing on abortion and crime.
With the future of the state’s abortion ban on the line, this contest will also be a crucial test of whether the issue continues to energize and drive turnout among Democrats (and hamstring Republicans), particularly after what happened in 2022.
And a Kelly win could raise questions about whether Trump’s indictment energized GOP voters who channeled their frustration at the ballot box, whether crime remains a salient issue for Republicans trying to counter the Democratic abortion message, and whether a coin flip of a state remains just that.
Headline of the day
Data Download: The number of the day is ... $27.9 million
That’s how much money has been spent on ads in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race since the Feb. 21 primary, according to the ad tracking firm AdImpact. The race has become the most expensive state Supreme Court contest in U.S. history.
Nearly half of that spending — $12 million — has come from the Protasiewicz campaign itself. Her allies have chipped in a few additional millions, giving Protasiewicz and her allies a slight spending edge in the race, dropping $15 million on ads to Kelly and his GOP allies’ $12.9 million.
Kelly’s campaign has spent just $1.1 million on the race but outside groups have helped make up the difference. The Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce Issue Mobilization Council has been the top GOP spender, dropping $6.7 million on ads in the general election.
Other numbers you need to know today:
15 million: The estimated number of people who will lose Medicaid coverage after a pandemic-era policy expired over the weekend.
$7 million: That’s how much former President Donald Trump’s campaign raised in the three days after the news of his indictment broke late last week, per Trump’s senior advisor Jason Miller.
17%: The portion of its staff that Democratic fundraising platform ActBlue is laying off, per a press release.
5: The number of women on Denver’s mayoral ballot on Tuesday, as they seek to become the city’s first female mayor, Axios Denver reports.
74: The age of NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which was created by a treaty on April 4, 1949. On this anniversary, Finland is set to join the alliance amid protests from Russia.
$360: The amount less on average that taxpayers are getting in their tax refunds so far this year compared to last.
$40 million: The value of a lawsuit filed by a Virginia teacher who was shot by a six-year-old in her classroom in January.
$3 million: The amount a federal jury has ordered Tesla to pay to a former worker who says he endured a racially hostile work environment at the company, CNBC reports.
5: The number of men’s college basketball championships won by the University of Connecticut, which secured their fifth after a win over San Diego State Monday night.
Eyes on 2024: Trump faces indictment day
Trump’s indictment is set to dominate the news Tuesday, as he appears in lower Manhattan to plead not guilty, facing dozens of charges related to alleged hush money payments.
It’s the first time a former American president faces criminal charges, but Trump’s not just part of the past, he’s part of the present and the future, as a top GOP presidential frontrunner. That’s why today’s news will loom over just about everything in politics.
One other reason is that his GOP rivals have rallied behind the former president, who still holds a deep sway with the Republican grassroots voters they hope to one day lure away from him.
But today is not that day — instead you’ve seen Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis declare from his official Twitter account last week that “Florida will not assist in an extradition request.” And you’ve seen most of the party’s possible candidates criticize the prosecution as political persecution. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, for example, launched a television ad ahead of the indictment that defends Trump and tries to put pressure on GOP rivals to similarly speak out.
In other campaign news …
Trump’s virtual army: NBC News’ Jonathan Allen and Vaughn Hillyard explore how Trump’s “online war machine” is targeting DeSantis, who has not yet jumped into the presidential race.
Meanwhile in Florida: The Florida governor quietly signed legislation Monday that would allow residents to carry a concealed weapon without a permit, NBC News’ Matt Dixon reports. And the Florida Senate approved a six-week abortion ban, which DeSantis spoke favorably of earlier this year, sending the measure to the state House.
Florida men: DeSantis leads Trump 44% to 39% among regular Florida Republican primary voters in a new Mason Dixon poll (per a new press release) that includes former Ambassador Nikki Haley (3%) and “someone else” (2%) as the other options.
On to New Hampshire: A St. Anselm College Survey Center poll shows Trump leading DeSantis 42% to 29%, with New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (14%) the only other Republican to hit double digits, according to WMUR.
Biden border bashing: Haley traveled to Texas to visit the southern border, sharply criticizing what she views as Biden’s inaction at the border, calling it a “dereliction of duty,” per Fox News.
Asa’s take: Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson joined MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell Reports, where he discussed his presidential run and said, “Donald Trump is going to be the defining issue in the 2024 GOP primary. And so, if you’re running against him or running for that office, you got to take a clear position.”
Virginia is for candidates: Republican Scott Parkinson, who works for the conservative group Club for Growth, announced Monday that he is running for Senate in Virginia against Democratic incumbent Tim Kaine.
Georgia on her mind: NBC News’ Sahil Kapur reports that Georgia Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene didn’t rule out a Senate bid when asked about Trump’s suggestion about her running, although she said “I hadn’t thought about it.” The next Georgia Senate race is not until 2026.
Dem dough: Rep. Katie Porter, D-Calif., announced her Senate campaign raised $4.5 million in the first three months of the year. Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., announced raising more than $3.7 million in that period. And Democrat Lucas Kunce, who is running for Senate in Missouri, announced a $1.1 million haul. First quarter fundraising reports are due to the Federal Election Commission by April 15.
Taking on Santos: Republican Kellen Curry, an Air Force veteran and J.P. Morgan alum, has launched a race against Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y., per the Washington Post.
ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world?
In a visit to Kyiv on Monday, Ohio GOP Rep. Mike Turner, the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, said there is “overwhelming” support in the U.S. for continuing aid to Ukraine.
Roy McGrath, a former aide to former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, was found in Tennessee on Monday and died after a confrontation with the FBI, following a 21-day manhunt after he failed to show up in court to face charges for wire fraud and embezzlement, the Washington Post reports.
Speaker Kevin McCarthy plans to meet with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in California this week, an event that China called a “provocation.”
