Happening this Thursday: President Biden heads to Michigan for a campaign event with the United Auto Workers, as a new poll finds him trailing Donald Trump in the battleground state… Nikki Haley stumps in South Carolina… And new FEC fundraising reports show Team Trump spent big on legal fees, while the Biden campaign ended 2023 with $46 million the bank (compared with the Trump camp’s $33 million).
But FIRST… Well, we finally got a high-quality poll out of South Carolina, and it shows former President Donald Trump with a sizable lead in the upcoming Republican presidential primary.
According to the new Washington Post/Monmouth University poll, Trump is ahead of former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley by 26 points among potential primary voters, 58% to 32%.
In September’s WaPo/Monmouth poll — when there were more candidates in the field, including Sen. Tim Scott, S.C. — Trump was ahead of Haley in the state, 46% to 18%.
Inside the numbers of the new poll, Trump leads among those who are strong Republicans (77% to 17%), those who are extremely motivated to vote (72% to 24%), those who are very conservative (80% to 13%) and those who are somewhat conservative (59% to 30%). Haley holds the advantage among those who are moderate or liberal (56% to 33%).
Some important caveats: The South Carolina primary, which takes place on Feb. 24, is still more than three weeks away. And there is uncertainty about the electorate’s makeup. South Carolinians don’t register by party, so the primary is open to Republicans, Democrats and independents. However, those who participate in the upcoming Feb. 3 Democratic primary are ineligible to vote in the Feb. 24 contest.
Other findings from the poll, which was conducted Jan 26-30 of 815 potential primary voters, and which has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.9 percentage points:
Trump’s fav/unfav rating is 66%-28% (essentially unchanged from September’s 60%-30% score).
Haley’s fav/unfav rating is 45%-41% (down from September’s 59%-24% rating).
A combined 69% of potential primary voters say they’d be either enthusiastic (39%) or satisfied (30%) if Trump becomes the GOP nominee, while a combined 29% said they’d be either dissatisfied (9%) or upset (20%).
That’s compared with 54% who’d be enthusiastic/satisfied if Haley is the GOP nominee, and 43% who’d be dissatisfied/upset.
And just 35% of potential primary voters say President Joe Biden won fair and square in 2020, while 57% incorrectly say he won due to voter fraud.
Headline of the day
The number of the day is … $4.2 million
That’s how much money Trump’s campaign raised online in a single day on Aug. 25, the same day his mugshot was released after he was arrested in the Georgia election interference case. That’s according to a new campaign finance report from WinRed, the GOP’s main online fundraising platform.
Trump’s next two highest online fundraising days came on Aug. 24, when he raised $2 million as he was arrested in the Georgia case, and on Aug. 26, when he raised nearly $1.5 million after the mugshot was released.
Trump raised $58 million through the platform during the final six months of the year, underscoring his enduring strength among small-dollar donors. And because those donors give in such small amounts, Trump can continue to tap them throughout the election cycle — just 10% of his fourth-quarter fundraising haul came from donors who have already reached the maximum primary contribution limit.
Eyes on November: Takeaways from the latest fundraising reports
New fundraising reports were filed Wednesday for federal campaigns, their affiliated PACs and their aligned super PACs, providing new details about the financial states of the Biden, Trump and Haley presidential campaigns.
It’s worth noting that these reports run through Dec. 31, so prior to the early state nominating contests that kicked off this month.
The most striking takeaway is that Trump’s related committees spent about $27 million in the second half of 2023 on legal bills. In fact, the main super PAC backing Trump’s campaign — MAGA Inc. — spent more in the second half of the year than it took in, mainly due to a transfer of $30 million to Save America, a leadership PAC that pays the bulk of the former president’s legal expense.
Haley’s campaign reported raising $17.3 million in the final three months of 2023, almost double the $8.2 million she raised in the preceding quarter. But the super PAC backing her bid — SFA Fund Inc. — blew through a lot of its money in 2023 ending the year with just $3.5 million on hand.
Biden’s campaign ended the year with $46 million on hand (compared with the Trump campaign’s $33 million). And, Future Forward, the main super PAC backing the president’s re-election bid, ended the year with $24 million in its account.
In other campaign news …
Trade-offs: In a pitch to donors on Tuesday in Florida, a top Trump campaign adviser urged attendees not to take Trump’s divisive rhetoric “too seriously,” CNBC’s Brian Schwartz reports.
Playing for the right team(sters): Trump met with the Teamsters Union on Wednesday in an effort to curry favor from the group, which endorsed Biden in the 2020 presidential election.
Biden to Ohio: Biden will visit East Palestine, Ohio, next month, one year after a train derailed there and spilled hazardous materials. Trump criticized Biden for making the move, saying the trip came “a year late,” per the Washington Post.
Primary battles: Colorado’s Democratic secretary of state asked the Supreme Court on Wednesday to let the state bar Trump from the GOP primary ballot.
Super PAC picking up the tab: New campaign finance reports out Wednesday show just how much Florida Gov Ron DeSantis outsourced his campaign to a major super PAC that backed his presidential bid — Never Back Down. That group spent $131 million in 2023 and DeSantis’ campaign spent just $28.2 million.
Legislative politics: Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, said Wednesday that passing a bipartisan tax bill could make Biden “look good” in a contentious election year.
Airwaves of steel: In his first TV ad of the cycle, Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, features Ohio steel workers who go after the federal government for using Chinese steel, before highlighting Brown’s efforts to support American steel workers.
Legal fees skyrocket: New Jersey Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez’s fundraising report found that his campaign spent over $2 million on “legal fees” in the last three months of 2023, after he was indicted on federal charges. And, the campaign only raised $104,000 in the last quarter of the year, significantly less than it raised in quarters before — and less than two potential primary rivals.
ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world
At a congressional hearing Wednesday, FBI Director Christopher Wray warned that China could “wreak havoc” on American infrastructure.
The House Oversight and Judiciary Committees have scheduled a closed-door interview for February with President Biden’s brother James Biden as part of the GOP’s impeachment inquiry into the president.
