Happening this Monday: We’re one day out until the New Hampshire primary… Ron DeSantis suspends campaign, endorses Donald Trump… Trump holds evening event in Laconia, N.H…. Nikki Haley stumps in Franklin and Salem… Dean Phillips hits Manchester and Nashua… President Biden, marking anniversary of Roe v. Wade, holds White House meeting on reproductive health care… And VP Harris travels to Milwaukee, where she kicks off “Fight for Reproductive Freedoms” tour.
But FIRST… Yes, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ presidential campaign was a mess.
And be sure to read NBC’s Matt Dixon, Dasha Burns, Allan Smith and Abigail Brooks on all the campaign’s miscues and wrong moves — from the launch with Elon Musk and its dysfunctional relationship with its super PAC, to a key pro-DeSantis official spending time on a jigsaw puzzle before the Iowa caucuses.
Yet also don’t discount two other important reasons for DeSantis’ downfall: 1) Donald Trump’s powerful pull with GOP primary voters after his indictments, and 2) the former president’s strength in the general-election polls.
Remember, it was a close(r) GOP horserace between Trump and DeSantis in the first few months of 2023, but Trump got stronger and stronger after each of his multiple criminal indictments.
“I think that had [Manhattan D.A.] Alvin Bragg not politicized this back in April, I think probably the primary would be looking different,” DeSantis said on “Meet the Press” last fall. “I mean, I think that that gave the former president more support.”
In addition to Trump getting stronger with GOP primary voters after his multiple indictments, he also fared well in hypothetical national and battleground state matchups vs. Biden, which contradicted the idea Trump couldn’t win back the White House.
Indeed, DeSantis — or at least the idea of a Trump alternative like him — looked strongest in the days after the 2022 midterms, when Republicans blamed Trump and the candidates he endorsed for the GOP’s underperformance.
That faded, however, after Biden’s rough stretch in the polls for much of 2023.
DeSantis’ messy campaign and his muddled campaign message are definitely on him.
But Trump’s strength — among GOP primary voters and in hypothetical general-election polls — was out of the Florida governor’s control.
Headline of the day
The number of the day is … $40 million
That’s how much Never Back Down, a super PAC backing DeSantis’ presidential bid, spent on campaign ads throughout the presidential election cycle, per AdImpact, an ad tracking platform.
Though the group was the second-highest spender in the presidential race so far (behind the pro-Haley SFA Fund Inc.), negative headlines about Never Back Down and internal turmoil in the organization often distracted from DeSantis’ campaign and message, NBC’s Matt Dixon, Dasha Burns, Allan Smith and Abigail Brooks report.
Eventually, two more super PACs — Fight Right and Good Fight — jumped in to boost DeSantis when Never Back Down stopped spending on campaign ads.
Those two groups spent an additional $15 million combined to boost DeSantis. Meanwhile, DeSantis’ campaign also spent $5 million this election cycle on campaign ads.
Eyes on November: Haley gets her two-person race
Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley now has her two-person race against Trump with DeSantis ending his campaign. NBC’s Natasha Korecki, Allan Smith and Ali Vitali report. Haley’s campaign and her allies see DeSantis’ exit as a boost for her, but they also note that the one-on-one contest might have come too late.
Even before DeSantis dropped out, Haley stepped up her attacks on Trump in recent days, questioning his mental fitness, per Smith, and noting at campaign stops that Trump confused Haley for former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. (The Trump campaign has downplayed those remarks, NBC’s Jake Traylor reports.)
Meanwhile, Haley and her allies are looking for some momentum in New Hampshire. Haley did nab an endorsement from the New Hampshire Union Leader on Sunday. And her allies at Americans for Prosperity Action have been out in force knocking doors, driving much of her ground game, per Smith.
Haley also has begun to place some resources in South Carolina, with her campaign announcing Saturday it would spend $4 million on the airwaves, per NBC’s Jon Allen.
And if she loses South Carolina? New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, a top Haley surrogate, had this to say on “Meet the Press” Sunday: “I think after every state, you look at your campaign, obviously, but that’s a month away. I mean, it’s really a month away.”
In other campaign news …
Abortion politics: The Biden campaign launched a minute-long ad on Monday, the 51st anniversary of Roe v. Wade, featuring a Texas woman who was forced to leave the state to get an abortion, per the New York Times. Biden is also set to announce new actions on reproductive health, per NBC’s Monica Alba.
“Gray area”: The New York Times explores an ethics investigation into Haley from her time in South Carolina politics, noting contracts that helped her make extra money as a legislator “led her into an ethical gray area.”
One city to watch: Trump’s Sunday rally took place in Rochester, N.H., one of a handful of New Hampshire municipalities that has correctly picked the GOP primary winner going back to the 1950s. This dispatch from the ground explores the politics of this primary bellwether, which will be a key city to watch on primary night.
Did you miss me?: South Carolina GOP Sen. Tim Scott, a former presidential candidate, endorsed Trump over the weekend, another sign that Republicans are closing ranks around Trump, NBC’s Jon Allen reports.
Veepstakes: Scott also dodged this weekend when asked whether he’d consider being Trump’s vice president, per NBC’s Carly Roman and Nnamdi Egwuonwu. And the Associated Press runs through other politicians who might consider joining Trump’s ticket, including Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., South Dakota GOP Gov. Kristi Noem, Arizona Senate candidate Kari Lake, and more.
Another path: Longshot Democratic presidential candidate Dean Phillips, a Minnesota congressman, said Sunday that he would consider running on a No Labels third-party ticket if Trump and Biden once again win the major-party nominations, per the New York Times.
All eyes back on the Keystone State: In Pennsylvania’s Senate race, Republican David McCormick is putting the Israel-Hamas war at the forefront of his campaign messaging, the Associated Press reports.
An expensive contest: Politico examines the amount of money flowing into California’s Senate race, which is unlikely to flip control of the late Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s seat.
Running on empty?: NBC’s Sahil Kapur details how some House Republicans have griped that they don’t have enough accomplishments to campaign on this year, and how Democrats plan to use that against them.
ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world
President Joe Biden’s national security advisers told lawmakers last week that Ukraine could lose the war to Russia in a matter of weeks or months without additional military aid from the U.S., NBC’s Monica Alba and Julie Tsirkin report.
Hamas is demanding a permanent cease-fire in exchange for the release of over 100 hostages still in the groups hands, landing negotiations between Hamas and Israel at an impasse, NBC’s Anna Schecter and Keir Simmons write.
