KRISTEN WELKER:
This Sunday, Iowa decides.
GOV. RON DeSANTIS:
Are you ready to make some history on Monday night?
FMR. GOV. NIKKI HALEY:
This is go time.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Republicans are facing frostbite and dangerous record-low temperatures as they get ready to make their choice in the first nominating contest of 2024.
FMR. GOV. NIKKI HALEY:
Chaos follows him.
GOV. RON DeSANTIS:
You can’t just terminate the Constitution.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Former President Donald Trump leads his rivals even as he makes some of his closing arguments from outside a courtroom.
FMR. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP:
it's a witch hunt in the truest sense of the word.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Who will emerge as Trump's biggest challenger? Steve Kornacki has the results of our final poll and Chuck Todd will offer a guide of what to watch on caucus night. Plus, smoke signals. Chris Christie exits the GOP race, warning Nikki Haley will get smoked, but will he consider his own independent third-party run?
FMR. GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE:
I am going to make sure that in no way do I enable Donald Trump to ever be president of the United States again.
KRISTEN WELKER:
And, striking back. The U.S. launches air strikes in Yemen as tensions rise in the Middle East.
PATRICK RYDER:
These strikes were very deliberate, very focused.
KRISTEN WELKER:
While the Pentagon’s top official remains hospitalized and under fire for failing to disclose his cancer diagnosis and hospitalization. My guests this morning: Republican Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa and Minnesota's Democratic Governor Tim Walz. Joining me for insight and analysis are: NBC News Senior Capitol Hill correspondent Garrett Haake, Brianne Pfannenstiel, chief politics reporter for the Des Moines Register, Iowa State Representative Ross Wilburn, a former Iowa Democratic Party chair, and Marc Short, former chief of staff to Vice President Mike Pence. Welcome to Sunday and a special edition of Meet the Press.
ANNOUNCER:
From NBC News in Des Moines, for the Iowa Republican presidential caucus, this is Meet the Press with Kristen Welker.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Good Sunday morning from a bitterly cold Des Moines, Iowa, where tomorrow night, Republican voters will finally get their say on who they want facing off against President Biden in November. Will former President Trump, who's been dominating the race here, despite just visiting 14 of the state's 99 counties, crack 50%? What about the race for second place? Can Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis make a stronger-than-expected showing and gain momentum? We begin this morning with our new NBC News-Des Moines Register Iowa poll, and I'm joined by National Political Correspondent Steve Kornacki to break it all down. Steve? Here we go.
STEVE KORNACKI:
Yeah, Kristen, and let's get right to it. The NBC News poll with the Des Moines Register, they have been doing this for decades. They have one of the best polls in the business. And what do they find on the eve of these Republican caucuses? There it is: Donald Trump continuing to have an enormous lead over the Republican field. Trump at 48%. Nikki Haley now in second place here at 20%, passing Ron DeSantis, who's at 16%, Vivek Ramaswamy at 8%. In terms of any change from our previous poll, which was done last month, you do see Trump down a tick, as we said, Haley moving there into second place, Ramaswamy up a couple points. But put this Trump lead in some perspective here. First of all, the 48% that he's registering here, that is the highest share for a Republican candidate in a final Des Moines Register poll ever. That surpasses the record of 43% from George W. Bush on the eve of the 2000 caucuses. Bush won those caucuses. Also, the margin: Trump 48%, Haley 20%, that's a 28-point margin. That is also the biggest margin in a final register poll, also breaking a record of George W. Bush of 23 points when he won the caucuses in 2000. So, that Trump lead, we haven't seen that before, but we've been seeing a lot in the polling this year. What about this question of weather. You mentioned it; everybody's talking about it, "Is it going to affect turnout? Could it help someone? Could it hurt someone?" We don't know, but maybe this is a measure. Maybe this is a clue. We asked voters, "Are you extremely enthusiastic about your candidate?" And, again, you can see, basically half of Trump's supporters say "extremely enthusiastic." About a quarter of DeSantis' supporters. Here's the worrying note for Nikki Haley: fewer than 10% of her supporters put theirselves in that category. So, while she's passed DeSantis for second, are those voters who say they're going to support her right now going to turn out? That question is raised by this number. There's also just the question, we've been seeing this all along, "Is your mind made up?" You see a majority for all candidates now but more core locked-in support for Trump than the other two. That has been a story, again, we've been seeing throughout this process. Now, take a look at the strengths here, first that are driving Donald Trump to this big lead. You see it: it's evangelical voters. Back in 2016, they made up about two-thirds, about two out of every three votes cast in the Iowa Republican caucuses. Trump, in 2016, lost evangelicals. He lost them by double digits, and he lost the state. What a turnaround in eight years. He now has an outright majority. He's nearly 30 points ahead of Ron DeSantis, who has gone hard after evangelicals with this group of voters. The rule in Iowa of late has been if you win the evangelical vote, you win the Republican caucuses. Trump is absolutely cleaning up in our poll with evangelicals. What has gotten Haley into second place? It's this group: it's independents. They're probably going to make up about 20% of the electorate. Haley not winning this group, but look how close she is to Trump. Haley 33%, Trump 37% among independent voters. Now, here is where it gets tricky for Haley, though. She's appealing to independents. And in this poll, we find that fully half, half of her support in this Iowa poll comes from either self-described independents or self-described Democrats. And it really starts to show when you ask a question like – get this. We asked supporters of Nikki Haley and we asked supporters of Ron DeSantis, "What's your opinion of Donald Trump?" And look at this. More than three out of four Haley voters have a negative view of Donald Trump. She really is consolidating the anti-Trump vote that is out there. And you wonder, is that starting to affect this? This is the basic popularity of each candidate. Trump, extremely popular. DeSantis, still very popular. Haley, 48-46, favorable-unfavorable. She's become polarizing. A month ago, her favorable rating, nearly 60%. Her unfavorable was 31%. Favorable has come crashing down. Unfavorable's gone soaring up for her. You know, it raises that question. Candidates who get associated, we've seen this with Christie, we've seen this with Pence, with anti-Trump forces, with anti-Trump voters, pro-Trump Republicans, and there are a lot of them, tend to turn on them. Is that maybe what we're seeing happen here with Haley supporters? And how about this for a number two? Again, among Haley supporters, now, they don't like Trump in general. We asked, "Who would you vote for, Biden or Trump, in a general election?" This is Nikki Haley's supporters in Iowa. Forty-three percent say they'd be with Biden, the Democrat. Basically half, a little more than half, 23% say they'd be with Donald Trump. Again, that speaks to the coalition that Haley seems to be putting together here.
And then, the final question, the bottom-line question, this was asked at the start of the campaign here: Donald Trump, all the legal woes, all of the different trials that are going on here, asking Republicans in Iowa, "Is it going to hurt him in the general election?" Remember, DeSantis got in this race sort of thinking Republicans would think it would. Well, here we go. Eve of the caucuses, basically three of four Iowa Republican caucus-goers say, "No, he can win the race against Joe Biden." Only 23% say, "That's going to make it awfully tough for Trump." The electability argument, at the beginning of this campaign, we wondered, "Would it hurt Trump with Republicans?" On the eve of the caucuses, doesn't look like it is in Iowa, Kristen.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Now we have our answer, right, Steve? Fascinating breakdown of all of those numbers. Thank you so much. And, of course, as you say, the big question: will caucus-goers turn out in this big chill? We'll have to wait and see. Steve, thank you.
STEVE KORNACKI:
You got it.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Folks, I can't say it enough, the temperatures here are dangerously low and dropping. Tomorrow is expected to be colder than any previous caucus day on record. Will Iowa Republicans brave the cold and turn out? The candidates have canceled some events, but spent the last 48 hours making their closing arguments.
[START TAPE]
GOV. RON DESANTIS:
It's going to get even colder. And we're in. We're showing up. I mean, you know, Donald Trump, I guess, has phoned it in. He's just going to be hanging out down in Mar-a-Lago. I'm sure it's probably 75° there.
FMR. GOV. NIKKI HALEY:
Now, Monday, it's going to be cold, really cold. But what I'm asking you is if you will take the time to not just go to the polls; take people with you.
FMR. PRES. DONALD TRUMP:
We have a huge – a huge advantage here because – the only thing is I just landed in an airplane. It's nasty out there. I just had a poll that just came out as I was leaving. In Iowa, I'm leading by 30, and 35, and 40 points in every poll. They can't find a bad one.
GOV. RON DESANTIS:
Donald Trump, if he's the nominee, the whole election is going to be about legal issues, criminal trials, maybe criminal convictions by then, January 6th, all of that. That plays into the Democrats' hands.
FMR. GOV. NIKKI HALEY:
Chaos follows him. And we can't be a country in disarray, and have a world on fire, and go through four more years of chaos. We won't survive it.
[END TAPE]
KRISTEN WELKER:
Joining me now is Iowa Republican Senator Joni Ernst, a member of Senate leadership who chairs the Republican Policy Committee, and the first female combat veteran elected to serve in the United States Senate. Senator Ernst, welcome back to Meet the Press.
SEN. JONI ERNST:
Good morning, Kristen. It's great to be with you.
KRISTEN WELKER:
It is great to have you. Happy caucus eve. We should note that you have not endorsed a candidate. I want to ask you about this lead that former President Trump has. It is nearly 30 points in our latest poll. But of course, the big X factor here is the weather. I have to ask you, before we delve into policy issues, do you think these frigid temperatures will help or hurt Donald Trump on caucus night?
SEN. JONI ERNST:
Well, it's hard to know. Iowans are a hardy people and there are snow days, when it comes to caucus. So we'll see who turns out tomorrow night. I would say bundle up. Wear your Carhartts, and your coveralls, your insulated boots. But get out there and support your candidate of choice. But, Kristen, it really is hard to tell who's going to drive out the most voters. But one thing I can say, Iowa being the first in the nation caucus state, we do take this very seriously.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Well, I've been out, talking to folks, and everyone is saying exactly that point, Senator. I want to ask you about a former UN ambassador, Nikki Haley. In our poll, she comes in second place. But if you look at the polls overall, she does best against President Biden in a general election campaign. Former President Trump is tied, effectively, with President Biden. If Republicans want to win back the White House, is Nikki Haley your best bet?
SEN. JONI ERNST:
Well, I think she is a great candidate. Again, I'm not endorsing anyone in the Iowa caucuses, but if you look at the issues that are top of mind for Iowa Republicans, they are the economy. They have suffered under President Biden. It is the southern border and the flow of illegal migrants into the United States. But, overall, if you look at national security, protecting our borders and pushing back against our adversaries worldwide, Nikki Haley does have the experience there and she's really spoke to that to the Iowa voters. So that may be one of the tipping points that resonate with so many different voters.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Well, let me try to get at the question this way. Do you plan to endorse whichever candidate emerges as the winner after the Iowa caucuses?
SEN. JONI ERNST:
Well, it'll depend. I have gone round and round in my mind. I do think that President Trump is going to win. We see such a large margin. But it's not a foregone conclusion. So we'll see who comes out the winner here, in the Iowa caucuses. We'll know that, tomorrow night. And then, we'll know how to move forward. But one thing we know, as Iowa Republicans, is that we cannot have Joe Biden in the White House for a second term.
KRISTEN WELKER:
So just to be very clear, though, if Donald Trump wins tomorrow night, would you endorse him, Senator?
SEN. JONI ERNST:
Well, again, I am not going to say that. I need to review the candidates very carefully. We'll see the margin. I guess I am assuming that President Trump wins, but it could be any one of these fantastic candidates. So, again, we'll see who emerges. I've made up my decision on who I will caucus for. It is a private ballot and I would expect that we'll have a very good turnout. But, again, Kristen, I'm not going to tip my hand to who I might be supporting.
KRISTEN WELKER:
All right. Well, has Donald Trump asked for your endorsement, Senator?
SEN. JONI ERNST:
I have had a request from just about all of the candidates. So – so, again, I'm not endorsing. And we'll keep those discussions private.
KRISTEN WELKER:
And you're not ruling out endorsing Donald Trump, though, if he wins or if he wins the nomination? You'll endorse the GOP nominee?
SEN. JONI ERNST:
I am not – no, I'm not ruling that out, at all. But certainly, we want to let Iowans make that decision through the weekend and tomorrow night. They'll come together at 7:00 p.m. here in Iowa. They'll get out in the snow and the cold weather. And then, we will go from there, starting Tuesday morning.
KRISTEN WELKER:
All right. I want to ask you about your recent trip. You were just in the Middle East with other lawmakers, working to secure the release of the six Americans still being held hostage by Hamas. Do you have any reason to believe that there could be a pause in the fighting to allow for the release of more hostages in the near future, Senator? What came out of your trip?
SEN. JONI ERNST:
Kristen, I – I truly hope so. We still have six Americans that remain in the hands of Hamas in the Gaza Strip. We are seeing now the negotiation for medications going into Gaza Strip for our hostages. That is extremely important. I led a bipartisan, bicameral delegation to the Middle East and spoke with leaders that are actually dealing with Hamas on this very issue; leaders in Egypt, leaders in Qatar, leaders in Bahrain and, of course, Israel. But, again, every second counts. We must get these hostages back as soon as possible. Their families are depending on it. Their lives depend on it. We cannot forget these are our American brothers and sisters.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Absolutely. I want to stay on this topic of hostages. Donald Trump has gotten a lot of attention for labeling those who are serving time for the January 6th attack as hostages. You obviously know the difference between those convicted of crimes related to January 6th and hostages. Does it bother you that Donald Trump is using that language?
SEN. JONI ERNST:
It does, in this context, because we do have American hostages that are being held against their will all around the globe. And especially, if you look at the innocents that were attacked and kidnapped on October 7th, we are approaching nearly 100 days. These are people that have been taken. They're held in tunnels with terrorists. They are being tortured. They have been raped. They have been denied medication. So equating the two, there is no comparison. Our Americans that are being held overseas, they are innocent. They were there, celebrating the high Jewish holidays and were taken by these horrible terrorists. So there – there is no equal term. The hostages are hostages. I would certainly, you know, ask to speak to any of their families and see the anguish and the pain of not knowing whether their loved ones are alive or dead. There is a very clear difference.
KRISTEN WELKER:
And as you know, Mr. Trump is also talking about pardoning some of those who have been convicted. Would you advise him against that? Are you opposed to pardoning those who are serving time for January 6th?
SEN. JONI ERNST:
I am not opposed to that. That is a president's prerogative. And so if former President Donald Trump is elected as our next president, he does have the right to do that. And I think we all need to reflect on January 6th and understand it was –
KRISTEN WELKER:
But, I mean, 700 of them, Senator – 700 of them have pled guilty to crimes related to storming the Capitol on January 6th. You would support pardoning them?
SEN. JONI ERNST: 091739
Well, again, I am not saying that I would support pardoning them, but that is a president's prerogative to do so. We have seen many presidents through the years that have pardoned many others. And so if Donald Trump chooses to do that as our next president of the United States, again, that will be his decision.
KRISTEN WELKER:
These are people, though, who attacked the building that you are in. You called them, "Insurrectionists," at the time. Would you not counsel Mr. Trump against pardoning them?
SEN. JONI ERNST:
No. I did not call them, "insurrectionists." I don't remember using that term. I would say that they did break the law. They did break the law. And I am not excusing any of their behavior. But, again, that's up to the president.
KRISTEN WELKER:
That term was used in an op-ed by you in the Des Moines Register. But let me just do a quick rapid-fire round, if I could, Senator, because we're running out of time. Obviously, this week, the Biden administration ordered strikes against Iranian-backed Houthi targets in Yemen. This all happened while the defense secretary was in the hospital. He signed off on the strikes. And of course, it came after a delay in him making the president and the American people aware of his medical condition. Do you think he should still be serving as the defense secretary?
SEN. JONI ERNST:
Well, I do think that there will need to be actions taken, as soon as we get all of the information, which hasn't been gathered together for members of Congress. We have seen very little transparency coming from the Department of Defense. And I think it's absolutely inexcusable that our secretary of defense was hospitalized, unable to perform his duties, and yet no one seemed to know what the heck was going on. This is not a circus, folks. And he is not the director of the Small Business Administration; he is the secretary of defense. When we see attacks against American service members overseas, we see the actions in the Red Sea, we see the war in Israel and in Ukraine, we need someone who can be at the helm and be transparent. It also goes to an issue, Kristen, of does the secretary of defense actually trust President Joe Biden, but he didn't have the courtesy to call him and let him know what was going on? Is Joe Biden really in control as our commander in chief? This begs that question. And we, as Congress, demand answers.
KRISTEN WELKER:
All right. And undoubtedly, you will be looking to get those answers, President Biden saying he
still has confidence in Secretary Austin. Senator Joni Ernest, thank you for joining us, really appreciate it.
KRISTEN WELKER:
And joining me now is Democratic Governor from Minnesota, Tim Walz, Chair of the Democratic Governors’ Association, and a top surrogate for President Biden. Governor Walz, welcome back to Meet the Press.
GOV. TIM WALZ:
Thanks for having me.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Thank you so much for being here on this caucus eve and braving the chilly temperatures.
GOV. TIM WALZ:
I came south to get warmer.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Yes, right. You're used to chilly temperatures, right? Let's talk about some of the challenges that President Biden faces. One of the big issues is his age. You've been an outspoken defender on this issue. This week the First Lady went so far as to say it's an asset. But voters aren't buying that. What does the campaign need to do to address this issue?
GOV. TIM WALZ:
Well, first there is something to be said about age and wisdom. And I think results matter. Look, I served in Congress for years and watched Infrastructure Week come and go. I watched Joe Biden deliver on a historic infrastructure act that's building roads and bridges across Minnesota, Iowa, and the rest of the country. And I think it's – as you start to see here, where the choice becomes the binary choice, between Donald Trump and disdain for the rule of law and Joe Biden competency and getting things done, that overweighs that.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Well, but I guess the question is: Is the campaign taking this issue seriously enough? Do they need to do more?
GOV. TIM WALZ:
Oh, I think they are. They’ve got us out here talking about it. And I spend a lot of time with the President, and he's great. We're talking, we're chatting, and all this. And I think, you know, we all get a little older. That's what happens. But you also gain that insight. And I think when it comes to these issues, working across the aisle to get things done, you see the President just doing this with dignity, doing it with class, getting up every day, doing the work. So, I think he's just doing what he does, and I think it's kind of incumbent upon all of us – look, my mom's 88, still living on the farm, drives herself. Folks are able to do this. So, I think this little bit of ageism that goes to this, if it's not that, would be something else. They attack all of us on something. This is part of it.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Former Obama adviser, David Axelrod, is worried that Democrats aren't taking the warning signs seriously enough. He says dismissing Biden's challenges is “deeply unhelpful" and that the concerns are real. Do you think the campaign runs the risk of ignoring President Biden's vulnerabilities?
GOV. TIM WALZ:
Oh, no. Look, this is going to be a close election. Nobody's denying that. All modern presidential elections are close. We're focusing on the assets of things to get done. Each of us has some of these challenges, but no, they're taking it very seriously. We're getting out there. I think the way they take it seriously, they're continuing to put out incredible policies. For example, the school nutrition program that will extend into the summer is incredible. We see 15 governors, including this state, turn that down. And we got hungry children. The Biden-Harris administration is still working those policies. So, no, I hear David's concerns on this. Nobody thinks this is going to be easy. Nobody thinks this is going to be anything but close. But we're focusing on the things as we move towards November. It's still pretty early here.
KRISTEN WELKER:
I want to talk about one of the other big issues looming over the campaign, the issue of migrants. Muslim leaders in your state, one of several states, are calling to abandon Biden over his handling of what we are seeing in the Middle East. Illinois Governor JB Pritzker wrote this.
Quote, "Unfortunately, the welcome and aid Illinois has been providing to these asylum seekers has not been matched with support by the federal government. The federal government's lack of intervention and coordination at the border has created an untenable situation for Illinois." Has the President been focused enough on these issues, do you think?
GOV. TIM WALZ:
Look, the immigration system is broken. I served in Congress for 12 years. I was there. Remember the Gang of Six in 2018. The fact of the matter is on day one of this presidency, Joe Biden put out a comprehensive plan on immigration reform. He's continued to ask for the resources necessary. Republicans don't want to fix this. Chaos is this – ex-President Trump talks about he wants the economy to fail on this. This is just an issue they use at this time of the year. But there's no doubt, the system is broken. We need to have comprehensive immigration reform. Look, these are asylum seekers, you know, experiencing trauma in their own countries. And we need workers right here in Iowa and Minnesota, especially in protein processing, some of those things. We need to do that. Congress, especially the House Republican chaos caucus, is doing nothing about it.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Yeah, and I should clarify, I combined the Middle East and migrants, because we are going to get the Middle East in just one moment. But look, Governor Pritzker is saying that this is effectively an urgent situation.
GOV. TIM WALZ:
It is.
KRISTEN WELKER:
He is pleading for help, and that it's not getting there quickly enough. Why hasn't there been more action?
GOV. TIM WALZ:
The executive branch does not appropriate. Look, we know Congress could do this. We saw it in '18 when we got close. They didn't want to do it, because they thought it would be an election issue. We hear the migrant caravan every time this time of year. These are not serious people. They're not seriously trying. Two things are true here: The system is broken and we need the help. Secondly is it's Congress's responsibility.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Do you think it's a crisis, what's happening at the border?
GOV. TIM WALZ:
Well, I think it could be fixed. I think "crisis" is-- you know, we certainly have this – I don't want people living outside in Minnesota right now. I think there's the humanity piece of this, and then there's the right that every sovereign nation has a right to control its borders, as we should. More could be done, but they're doing nothing. Congress is doing nothing. The president's asking for more aid for border patrol, not getting it.
KRISTEN WELKER:
But do you think the border's secure?
GOV. TIM WALZ:
I think the border, with the folks who do the work down there, are doing a great job. Could we do better? Absolutely. And again, if the executive branch had their way, it would have happened on day one. So, I encourage folks, including the representatives here from Iowa, the senator, get something done. Send the resources over. We in the executive branch, as a governor, whatever, we follow the laws that are written by the Congress. And there is a broken system.
KRISTEN WELKER:
I do want to ask you about the Middle East, because polling is showing that President Biden is losing voters due to his support of Israel's war against Hamas. And again, Muslim leaders in your state are calling for Democratic voters to, quote, "abandon Biden." Overnight at the White House we saw protesters gathering outside of the White House gates, calling for a ceasefire. Do you think that President Biden needs to change strategies in the Middle East?
GOV. TIM WALZ:
Look, since October 7th--
KRISTEN WELKER:
Does he need to start calling for a ceasefire?
GOV. TIM WALZ:
It's a horrific situation, and many of us have dealt with this issue, traveling to Israel, being in the West Bank and Gaza, as I was a member of Congress. But the President has to handle this as Commander-in-Chief. He doesn't get to step back and second guess on this. He's making sure that certainly Israel's an ally, but he's showing incredible concern for the Palestinian people, being very clear that Hamas is not a good actor in this. The Palestinian authority has to figure that out. As far as folks expressing their opinions, I understand their frustration. They have family members there. But the question I would ask is: Is abandoning President Biden means a Muslim ban. If you think, just to be very clear, whether it's President Trump or any of these other folks it's, you know, different flavor of the same MAGA Kool-Aid. They're going to do nothing for this community. They're going to do nothing to try and work for a two-state solution. They're going to do nothing to provide humanitarian aid. Their battle cry is, "Not one penny for anywhere else." Look, they're abandoning Ukraine. They're abandoning Ukraine. They will abandon them. So, I hear the frustration. But the president has great and a lot of experience in foreign affairs. He's working the best he can to bring this thing to a conclusion.
KRISTEN WELKER:
So you don't think he needs to start calling for a ceasefire, in order to win back some of this support?
GOV. TIM WALZ:
I think he's calling for a reasonable end to this, that has to be in a place where Israel can defend itself, as well as making sure we can protect Palestinian people, which Hamas has done nothing to do that.
KRISTEN WELKER:
All right. Governor Walz, thank you so much for being here.
GOV. TIM WALZ:
Stay warm.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Really appreciate it. You too. Thank you. When we come back, Chuck Todd is here with us in Iowa, with what he will be watching for on caucus night. Stay with us.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Welcome back. With more on what to watch here in the final 24 hours, I'm joined by my colleague, NBC News Chief Political Analyst Chuck Todd. Chuck, I can think of no better Sunday to welcome you back to Meet the Press.
CHUCK TODD:
Thank you. This is my favorite offsite location that we ever had. These folks here are fantastic at West End Salvage--
KRISTEN WELKER:
They are fantastic, and you make it complete. And, Chuck, the big X factor is the weather. We want to show folks - We actually did a little experiment. We threw a cup of coffee up into the air outside. Look at what happens, Chuck.
CHUCK TODD:
I love it. My daughter, who's majoring in meteorology, she's going to have a lot of fun with this.
KRISTEN WELKER:
She sure will--
CHUCK TODD:
Weather experiments--
KRISTEN WELKER:
Exactly.
CHUCK TODD:
--here on Meet the Press. I love it--
KRISTEN WELKER:
Exactly.
CHUCK TODD:
I love it.
KRISTEN WELKER:
I mean, it just speaks to how frigid, dangerously cold temperatures. So, the question is always about turnout, but that adds a new element. What are you going to be watching for tomorrow night in addition to the weather?
CHUCK TODD:
Well, but that's the point here. It almost is the entire ballgame, the turnout, because the smaller the turnout, that's when weird things happen here.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Yes.
CHUCK TODD:
You know, Rick Santorum didn't win in a large turnout, you know, those sorts of things. And Donald Trump has benefited from big turnouts. You know, the higher the turnout has been in general election, the better. More Trump voters have come, so. And is there a complacency issue that Trump has to worry about? So, you know, this is a question where weather has suddenly become the entire ballgame. It should be a real advantage for Ron DeSantis. Here's the guy that has been building an organization longer than any other campaign. He's got the governor on his side, who's got a built-in organization. This is why you build an organization, is when the weather drops unexpectedly. "Are you going to get your people out," right? So, in theory, this is all, actually, I think, setting up really well right now for Ron DeSantis.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Let's talk about that race for second place. Explain to people, because we've been talking about it for days, second place is important. But for Ron DeSantis, it really is important. Nikki Haley has edged him out in our poll, but if you look at the enthusiasm numbers, only 9% of her voters say they're enthusiastic about going out to support her.. I mean, what does that mean, Chuck?
CHUCK TODD:
The only good news in our poll for Nikki Haley is the fact that she's sitting in second. Every other part of it, when you look at the internals of this, this is not a candidacy that's on the rise. This looks like a candidacy that has sort of peaked a week too soon.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Yeah--
CHUCK TODD:
Now, you know--
KRISTEN WELKER:
Yeah, right. Right.
CHUCK TODD:
--everything fell into place for her, and then, all of a sudden, it imploded and fell into place on the same day, right? Chris Christie gets out but then sort of steps on her candidacy. She gets a one on one with DeSantis, but she doesn't do so hot, and DeSantis seems to have the better one here. So, look, I think second place only matters if Donald Trump's under 50%. This is--
KRISTEN WELKER:
Mmm. Why?
CHUCK TODD:
--the most Republican electorate you're going to have. And if you can hold the front-runner and former president under 50 in this electorate, which is as friendly of electorate as he's going to have, you can do it here, then you can make the case, "Hey, half the party would like to see this go on." But if he's over 50, I don't know how relevant second place is anymore. Second place only looks as good as how many percentage points under 50 Trump is.
KRISTEN WELKER:
If he's over 50, I don't want to overstate this, I mean, is that close to a game over when you think about-- I mean--
CHUCK TODD:
Well, if you're Donald Trump--
KRISTEN WELKER:
--if he heads into New Hampshire with a lot of momentum?
CHUCK TODD:
If you're Donald Trump, the results you want is you're over 50 and Ron DeSantis is in second, because then it really sort of takes the wind out of the sails--
KRISTEN WELKER:
Right. Right.
CHUCK TODD:
--of Haley. It means there won't be a consolidation. It means both of them move on to New Hampshire. You know, Ron DeSantis' campaign, they seem to be flirting with skipping New Hampshire, right? They put out the announcement saying--
KRISTEN WELKER:
Right. Right.
CHUCK TODD:
--"Hey, we're going to South Carolina first." And then, in that same advisory, that same day, they're also going to New Hampshire, right?
KRISTEN WELKER:
New Hampshire.
CHUCK TODD:
They're not sure what they're going to do. And that in itself, already, is a victory for Trump.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Well, speaking about victories for Trump, you have a new column out talking about how candidates can best challenge him. And you write, "In 50 years, when historians look back at this campaign, they will no doubt examine it through the prism of whether the GOP wanted Trump or a new direction, but that's not the campaign that's actually taking place." What is the best way to confront Trump? Because they haven't found it.
CHUCK TODD:
They haven't, right? They've tried to do just a character campaign.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Yeah.
CHUCK TODD:
You know, making a character case but trying to separate Trump from Trumpism. I think that's proven not to be – if you look at the last couple of times that there have been major sort of internal disputes inside the party about which direction to go, there was a robust debate on each side. In '64, in '76, even in '16, there were robust debates on this side. There really isn't a debate about whether Trumpism is the right direction for the party. The debate is about Trump, right? And I think that's probably the mistake that Haley and DeSantis – they haven't figured out how to make the case that Trump's first term was a failure. You may have liked the issues he focused on, but his inability to solve these problems is why we have the problems we have today. And they seem to be afraid of making that argument.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Mmm. And just very quickly, Chuck, you and I, at the start of this race, wondered what his legal challenges would mean. It's only made him stronger. That was the big X factor if you rewind to last year.
CHUCK TODD:
There is. There's going to be so many what-ifs, though. What if Alvin Bragg had not gone first, right? What if only Jack Smith had done? Like, you know, I could tell you this. Ron DeSantis has already said, if he ends up getting out of this race, he's already diagnosed why he didn't make it.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Mmm.
CHUCK TODD:
And he has said he blames Alvin Bragg. And, look, I've talked to folks inside the White House. They didn't believe these indictments would actually be a benefit to him, either, in fairness.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Well, we continue to watch this extraordinary moment in our politics. Chuck, thanks so much for being here.
CHUCK TODD:
Thanks for having me.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Yeah.
CHUCK TODD:
It's great to be back.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Great to have you here. When we come back, Ron DeSantis is heading to South Carolina after Iowa, as we just said. What does that mean about the future of his campaign? The panel is next.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Welcome back. The panel is here: NBC News Senior Capitol Hill Correspondent Garrett Haake; Brianne Pfannenstiel, chief politics reporter for the Des Moines Register; Iowa Democratic State Representative Ross Wilburn, a former chair of the Iowa Democratic Party; and Marc Short, former chief of staff to Vice President Mike Pence. Happy caucus eve to all of you. Thank you for being here.
ROSS WILBURN:
Good to be here.
GARRETT HAAKE:
Yeah.
KRISTEN WELKER:
It's great to have all of you. Garrett, let me start with you. You've been on the ground for days. You've been covering this race from the very beginning. Obviously, Trump has solidified his lead heading into caucus night. What are the key things that you're going to be looking for tomorrow?
GARRETT HAAKE:
Yeah, it's not just the ground that's frozen solid here. To a certain degree, it has been this race. And it's been like that from the jump. I mean, Trump has had the lead for a very long time here. I think the combination of the durability of that lead and the weather has kind of stalled out what we normally see as the final sprint to the finish here. You don't see candidates pouring money into the caucuses right now. You don't see people adding campaign events. It's not practical, and it's not going to make a difference. And I think we shouldn't lose the forest for the trees here, right? The story about the second-place fight is interesting, but if Donald Trump doubles up the record here in this state after having been impeached and criminally charged in four different jurisdictions since the last time he was on a ballot, the durability that he has in this primary, and we could talk about everything that happens after that down the line, is something that I think the Republican Party is starting to grapple with and all of us need to grapple with. The sort of, "This is really where we are in this race right now."
KRISTEN WELKER:
Yeah. Brianne, do you think that we will see an historic night? Or do you think there's going to be some complacency? I mean, the Trump team is a little concerned about that, that people are going to say, "Well, he's going to win anyway. I don't need to go out into these cold temperatures to vote for him."
BRIANNE PFANNENSTIEL:
Right. That's exactly right. I mean, to the point of his durability, not only is he maintaining his lead. He's grown stronger over the months that he's been campaigning here despite all of the things that Garrett mentioned. And so, you know, there may be some complacency. Historically cold on – on Monday. But, you know, Donald Trump has been fighting this. He's been going to his commit-to-caucus rallies. He's been telling people, "I need you to show up. The biggest threat to my win is if you guys stay home."
KRISTEN WELKER:
Yeah. Marc, we got this news that Governor DeSantis is heading to South Carolina right after Iowa. What do you make of that? What do you make of this fight for second place as someone who has been in this battle?
MARC SHORT:
Well, look, I think that this race has actually been frozen in place for quite some time. I think Trump's lead has been 20 to 30 points for a long time. I don't make as much about whether DeSantis goes to South Carolina or New Hampshire next. I think the reality is he has to have a strong showing here because he doesn't have the same operation in New Hampshire or South Carolina. But I think the conundrum for Nikki Haley is that if she really does finish second, which I'm still skeptical. I think DeSantis has the better ground game. But if she did and DeSantis dropped out, most of the DeSantis' support goes back to Trump. So, it doesn't really help her in the long term here. So, whether DeSantis goes to South Carolina or New Hampshire, Kristen, I still feel like this is not going to be a protracted nomination battle. I think by the time you get through South Carolina, we're pretty much going to know who the nominee is.
KRISTEN WELKER:
All right. And we're going to know a lot more after tomorrow night, Ross, including whether there are historic results. And I just want to show folks what that looks like. The person who got the highest number of votes here in the Iowa caucus is Bob Dole all the way back in 1988, followed by George W. Bush, Mike Huckabee, Ted Cruz. Set the scene.
ROSS WILBURN:
You know, we have to put history aside. This is now – it’s a different time, and the margins really aren't going to provide much insight. Donald Trump and all of the Republicans are running on the same extreme MAGA agenda. So, they're really racing to the bottom, wrapping their arms around the most extreme fringes of the party. We should all be concerned about this.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Well, Garrett, you know, it's interesting, because we weren't just focused on the action on the campaign trail this week. We were focused on what was happening outside of the courtroom, inside of the courtroom.
GARRETT HAAKE:
That's right.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Donald Trump, at his civil trial in New York, turning this into another campaign opportunity.
GARRETT HAAKE:
Yeah, it's interesting. If I go back far enough in my notebook, I can find Trump advisors who were worried months and months ago that the legal problems that he had would become campaign trail problems later, even if just for scheduling purposes. But the Trump campaign has basically weaponized Donald Trump's legal problems and turned them into campaign opportunities. He gives the exact same message in courtrooms as he's doing on the stump here. This idea that he is somehow being unfairly targeted by the Justice Department or by DAs, what have you, comes out of the mouth of his supporters everywhere you go. So, they've tried to turn it into an asset. Again, in a primary versus the general election, whole different conversation.
KRISTEN WELKER:
It sure is. Brianne, is anyone talking about the president's legal issues here in Iowa? What's the reality on the ground?
BRIANNE PFANNENSTIEL:
Right. Only to the extent that they are ready to move past them. They feel that he's being unfairly persecuted. You know, you go to these campaign events, and I talked to a woman yesterday who described herself as a Donald Trump groupie. She's been to see him six or seven times. She's going again to Indianola today to see him speak. And these are people who believe that, you know, he is the only one who can fix the problems that they see on the ground. And nothing in the courtroom is changing that for them.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Ross, we saw this extraordinary moment unfold today in the former president's legal battles. His lawyers argued, in response to a hypothetical question, former President Trump's legal team said that he could direct the military to kill a political opponent and still be barred from prosecution over that as long as he hadn't been tried and convicted in the Senate. Do you think Democrats are going to start to use these legal issues against him? Because so far the president – President Biden's been pretty hands off.
ROSS WILBURN:
This is shameful, and it's frightening. We all should be concerned.
KRISTEN WELKER:
But do you think Democrats are going to start talking about this? Should they?
ROSS WILBURN:
Look, this election is about choices. And people are looking at whether we're going to unify behind the accomplishments of President Biden and Vice President Harris. You know, this is anti-American. We need to be focusing about table issues: protecting Medicare; protecting Social Security; ensuring, securing abortion rights; those table, meat-and-potato issues that affect Iowans and Americans. This is the playbook for America this election.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Marc, final.
MARC SHORT:
Well, I mean, there's an irony in the former president saying that the executive privilege protects him from any prosecution, yet he also says on day one, he's going to prosecute Joe Biden. I mean, there's an enormous inconsistency there. But I think that the problem from the table issues that Ross raises is I think that Joe Biden has failed on all of them, whether or not it's the inflation, the border crisis, war in the Middle East, war in Eastern Europe. And so, those table issues actually drive people back to Donald Trump despite the legal challenges.
KRISTEN WELKER:
All right. Well, we will see what happens tomorrow night. Stay with us. We have more of our panel. But first, when we come back, why miracles can come true here in Iowa. Our Meet the Press Minute is next.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Welcome back. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has declared he will win Iowa. Former President Donald Trump says he'll win the state, with his advisors promising at least a 12-point victory. Nikki Haley has been tough to pin down, staying vague. The expectations game is central to the first-in-the-nation contest. Back in 2007, here's how former Governor Mike Huckabee talked about his odds.
[START TAPE]
TIM RUSSERT:
In October, you told me you were going to win Iowa caucuses. Are you?
FMR. GOV. MIKE HUCKABEE:
Well, I hope so, Tim. I really do. I mean –
TIM RUSSERT:
No, you said you were.
FMR. GOV. MIKE HUCKABEE:
Well, Thursday night, I'll let you know. But let me tell you this. We're being outspent 20 to one here. If we do, you're going to have a political story like you've never had coming out of Iowa on Friday morning.
TIM RUSSERT:
Would it be a miracle?
FMR. GOV. MIKE HUCKABEE:
By my definition?
TIM RUSSERT:
I'm just teasing –
FMR. GOV. MIKE HUCKABEE:
Yes, it would.
TIM RUSSERT:
Governor Huckabee, thank you –
FMR. GOV. MIKE HUCKABEE:
I'm on record. Yes, it would.
[END TAPE]
KRISTEN WELKER:
Well, Huckabee, of course, won the caucuses. The party's eventual nominee, Senator John McCain, finished fourth. When we come back, what Chris Christie said on a hot mic after dropping out of the GOP race. But is this really the end of his presidential ambitions? More with the panel next.
[START TAPE]
FMR. GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE:
And she's going to get smoked. And you and I both know it. She's not up to this.
FEMALE VOICE:
She hasn't even been challenged –
MALE VOICE:
She's still 20 points behind Trump in New Hampshire, right?
FMR. GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE:
Yeah. Oh, yeah.
MALE VOICE:
And he's still going to carry Iowa, right?
FMR. GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE:
Yes. Oh, he’s – you know, I talked to – DeSantis called me petrified that I would like –
MALE VOICE:
Because he's probably getting out after Iowa.
[END TAPE]
KRISTEN WELKER:
Welcome back. That, of course, was former Republican Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey caught on a hot mic minutes before announcing he was dropping out of the presidential race. The panel is still here with me. Marc, take it away. Those moments are always so revealing. But also, now, speculation: Could he potentially be eyeing a third-party run?
MARC SHORT:
I – I think it's hard to think that Governor Christie would – would run as a third-party candidate. But I do think that there's been less coverage about how I believe the third-party candidates will impact this race. I think Donald Trump has a low ceiling. He was roughly 46% in 2016, 46% in 2020. If you take the anti-Trump vote and divide it among multiple candidates, it really hurts Biden and helps Donald Trump. And so, Donald Trump campaign must hope there are multiple third-party candidates in this race. And I think it – in a head to head, you'd probably think Biden has the advantage. If it's a multi-candidate race, I think it's anyone's game.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Ross, weigh in on that, because, obviously, Senator Manchin got a lot of attention this week. He was in New Hampshire at the Politics & Eggs breakfast. He says he'll make a decision in the next several months. How concerned are Democrats about what Marc is talking about, a third-party candidate?
ROSS WILBURN:
Regardless of this, this election is about choices. And Democrats unifying behind President Biden and Vice President Harris, the successes in terms of providing billions of dollars in infrastructure, clean energy, those meat-and-potato issues at the table, that's what people are going to have to decide. This is about disarray in the Republican Party –
KRISTEN WELKER:
But –
ROSS WILBURN:
And this caucus process is pushing them to race to the bottom.
KRISTEN WELKER:
But do you think a third-party candidate, as Marc is saying, takes away from President Biden's support?
ROSS WILBURN:
It – it really hasn't been significant. And this is – this is Iowa. We're starting. They are laying the – the blueprint for how things proceed forward. And, you know, time will tell, but it hasn’t – it didn't work for Ross Perot. It's not going to work this time.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Yeah. I mean, third-party candidates, Garrett, don't historically have any luck in general.
GARRETT HAAKE:
Well, that's true, right? They can help you lose. They don't necessarily win on their own, no –
KRISTEN WELKER:
Well, that's right. That's right. So, let's talk about President Biden. I mean, he is facing a real commander in chief moment. Here this week, he ordered these strikes against Iranian-backed Houthi targets in Yemen. We're talking about the scrutiny over his handling of the Middle East. There's the war in Ukraine. This is a commander in chief moment while he's in the fight of his political life, Garrett.
GARRETT HAAKE:
Right. And this is the double-edged sword of incumbency, right? Nobody has to imagine what you would do as leader of the free world, but nobody gets to imagine what they want you to do as leader of the free world. And he's been in this moment, really, since October 7th. You've seen support for President Biden go up among Jewish-American voters in some ways. They appreciate the way that he has handled that war. You've also seen a very vocal element of his base be extremely outspoken about the death in Gaza and whether or not he and Americans are somehow more responsible for that. The Biden campaign, I think, broadly believes that they can bring those people back into the tent with their favorite aphorism about choosing between, you know, the almighty and the alternative. Donald Trump's not going to treat Gazans any better than Joe Biden might. But he is very much in the spotlight on this issue. I think if you gave Joe Biden truth serum, he'd say, probably, being in the spotlight on foreign affairs is something he'd be perfectly comfortable with down the stretch. But it is a very bright spotlight that only the commander in chief faces.
KRISTEN WELKER:
It – it is. And, Brianne, I mean, how much focus is there on President Biden, that commander in chief moment that he's having right now, particularly as we wait to see if there is a third-party candidate?
BRIANNE PFANNENSTIEL:
Right. I think Iowans are absolutely paying attention. We saw the conversation here in the caucuses shift toward foreign affairs as all of this is happening. And you – you watch what Joe Biden is doing right now while all of these Republicans are campaigning, while Donald Trump is in the courtroom. He's – he’s in New Hampshire. He's – he's going back to his original campaign message, which is, "This is about the sake of democracy." And so, you really see him kind of calling back to those original messages that helped him win over Donald Trump.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Okay. Marc, final point?
MARC SHORT:
I – I think that the problem with Joe Biden's campaign so far is he hasn't been talking about the table issues. He's been talking about January 6th. And I think that a lot of voters have already factored that in. And I do think that if there are multiple candidates, it's going to benefit Donald Trump a lot.
KRISTEN WELKER:
You've got five seconds. Go.
ROSS WILBURN:
Joe Biden is the president. He's leading. They're all trying to be president. This is a moment for our president to show leadership and bringing the world together.
KRISTEN WELKER:
All right. Thank you all for being here on the eve of the caucuses. We really appreciate it. Great conversation. Before we go, don't miss our special coverage of the caucuses tomorrow night, beginning at 7:00 p.m. Eastern on NBC News NOW and Peacock. That's all for today. Thank you so much for watching. We'll be back next week, because if it's Sunday, it's Meet the Press.