KRISTEN WELKER:
This Sunday: the final sprint.
VICE PRES. KAMALA HARRIS:
It is time for a new generation of leadership in America.
FMR. PRES. DONALD TRUMP:
We will never give up, We will never ever back down, and we will never, ever, ever surrender.
KRISTEN WELKER:
As the 2024 election nears the finish line, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump make their last appeal to voters.
FMR. PRES. DONALD TRUMP:
I want to protect the women of our country. I’m going to do it whether the women like it or not.
VICE PRES. KAMALA HARRIS:
He simply does not respect the freedom of women or the intelligence of women.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Where does the race stand? NBC’s Steve Kornacki has the results of our final NBC poll before election day. Plus: violent threats. Donald Trump suggests sending Liz Cheney to war and says
she should have guns trained on her face.
FMR. PRES. DONALD TRUMP:
Let's put her with a rifle standing there with 9 barrels shooting at her. Ok, let's see how she feels about it.
VICE PRES. KAMALA HARRIS:
Anyone who wants to be president of the United States, who uses that kind of violent rhetoric, is clearly disqualified and unqualified to be president.
KRISTEN WELKER:
And: trash talking.
TONY HINCHCLIFFE:
There's literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. Yeah. I think it’s called Puerto Rico?
KRISTEN WELKER:
After a comedian’s racist remarks about Puerto Rico at a Trump rally, Democrats seize on the hateful message to court Hispanic voters. My guests this morning: Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia and Republican Governor Doug Burgum of North Dakota. Joining me for insight and analysis are: NBC News Chief Political Analyst Chuck Todd; Cristina Londoño Rooney, senior Washington correspondent for Telemundo; Marc Short, former Chief of Staff to Vice President Mike Pence; and former White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki. Welcome to Sunday and a special election edition of Meet the Press.
ANNOUNCER:
From NBC News headquarters in New York, the longest-running show in television history, this is a special edition of Meet the Press with Kristen Welker.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Good Sunday morning from our election headquarters at 30 Rockefeller Plaza in New York. With just 48 hours until election day, the stakes could not be higher in what may be the closest election in recent memory, as former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris promise two starkly different paths for the country.
VICE PRES. KAMALA HARRIS:
As president, I pledge to seek common ground and common sense solutions to the challenges you face. I am not looking to score political points. I am looking to make progress.
FMR. PRES. DONALD TRUMP:
We will not be invaded. We will not be occupied. We will not be overrun. We will not be conquered. We will be a free and proud nation once again.
KRISTEN WELKER:
More than 72 million Americans have already cast their ballots. 7 states will decide the election and never in recent memory have the polls been so close in those battleground states on the weekend before election day. But will the battleground expand? A shocking new Des Moines Register Iowa poll out overnight shows Vice President Harris leading former President Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters. Mr. Trump had an 18-point lead over President Biden in the state back in June. The startling reversal driven by the gender gap and the strength of independent women, who back Harris by a 28-point margin. Both candidates are urging voters to show up.
VICE PRES. KAMALA HARRIS:
For those who haven't voted yet, let me just be clear, no judgment, no judgment, but you still have time.
FMR. PRES. DONALD TRUMP:
I've come today with a message of hope for all Americans with your beautiful vote. We don't want your money. I don't want your money. I want your damn vote.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Now, our final NBC News national poll, completed overnight, shows the race statistically tied among registered voters: 49 to 49%. Can the vice president hold her ground with Black and Latino voters and deliver a superior ground game? Can she grow Democratic support in the suburbs? And will the issue of abortion power women to the ballot box? Can former President Trump break through the blue wall, as he did in 2016, on the issues of the economy and immigration? Can he narrow the margins among Black and Latino voters and turn out young men? Will Nikki Haley voters stick with Trump? And, if he loses, will the former President accept the results? He still hasn’t conceded the 2020 race, and is already spreading baseless claims about the 2024 election. Vice President Harris and former President Trump and their surrogates are making their closing arguments.
[START TAPE]
VICE PRES. KAMALA HARRIS:
Hello Wisconsin!
FMR. PRES. DONALD TRUMP:
Georgia.
VICE PRES. KAMALA HARRIS:
North Carolina.
FMR. PRES. DONALD TRUMP:
If we win Pennsylvania, we're going to win the whole deal.
VICE PRES. KAMALA HARRIS:
We have an opportunity in this election to turn the page on a decade of Donald Trump trying to keep us divided and afraid of each other.
FMR. PRES. DONALD TRUMP:
Kamala, who is grossly incompetent, broke it. I will fix it.
GOV. TIM WALZ:
Donald Trump's a loser in everything that he's done.
SEN. JD VANCE:
You cannot, Kamala Harris, pretend that you had nothing to do with the Biden administration when you are the sitting Vice President.
FMR. PRES. DONALD TRUMP:
In many cases, our allies are worse than our so-called enemies.
VICE PRES. KAMALA HARRIS:
Day one if elected, Donald Trump would walk into that office with an enemies list. When elected, I will walk in with a to-do list.
FMR. PRES. DONALD TRUMP:
I consider myself to be the father of fertilization. I want to protect the women of our country. I’m going to do it whether the women like it or not.
FMR. FIRST LADY MICHELLE OBAMA:
We have to choose leaders who embody the values we seek to pass on to our children.
FMR. PRES. DONALD TRUMP:
She's violated her oath, eradicated our sovereign border, and unleashed an army of gangs and criminal migrants from prisons and jails.
ELON MUSK:
Make the margin of victory so big that "you know what" can’t happen.
FMR. PRES. DONALD TRUMP:
The only thing can stop us is the cheating. It's the only thing that can stop us.
VICE PRES. KAMALA HARRIS:
He is the person who stood at this very spot nearly four years ago and sent an armed mob to the United States Capitol.
FMR. PRES. DONALD TRUMP:
We will never give in, we will never give up, we will never ever back down, and we will never, ever, ever surrender.
[END TAPE]
KRISTEN WELKER:
We begin this morning in the battleground states. North Carolina was the state former president Trump won in 2020 by the smallest margin and both candidates held events there on Saturday. Already more than four million people have voted in the state, despite the huge impact of Hurricane Helene. NBC's Dasha Burns is in Greensboro where the former president held a rally last night. And, Dasha, you just spoke with the former president this morning. What did he tell you?
DASHA BURNS:
Yeah, Kristen. Good morning. That's right. I just got off the phone with the former president moments ago. I asked him about that stunning new Des Moines Register poll showing Harris leading in typically red Iowa. He told me the poll was, quote, "fake," and called the pollster, Ann Selzer, a quote, "Trump hater," though he has called her a talented pollster in the past and praised that very same poll earlier this year when it showed him leading big in the Iowa caucuses. Experts widely see that poll as reputable. I also asked the former president about the gender gap that's been defining this election. I asked, what is his message to women who are thinking about voting for Vice President Harris. He said, quote, "You're voting for the wrong person and will end up in a depression and you're not going to be safe." Now, the former president has largely leaned into talking points and platforms that cater to male voters. His closing message for women has been focused mostly on safety and on access to IVF. He recently received some backlash for his remark, saying that he'll protect women, quote, "whether they like it or not." And overnight here in North Carolina, he referred to himself as the, quote, “father of fertilization.” And, Kristen, at that same rally, the former president laughed at and leaned into some crude comments from a supporter who shouted that Vice President Harris, quote, "worked on the corner," a phrase that's used to describe prostitution. Mr. Trump said that, quote, "This place is amazing. Just remember it's other people saying it. Not me." And, Kristen, this is representative of the tone that has turned off female voters that we've talked to across battleground states and here in North Carolina, where the former president is playing a bit of defense despite the fact that he won the state in two consecutive elections, Kristen.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Dasha, fantastic job getting that phone interview. We're going to talk with Steve Kornacki about that Iowa poll that you mentioned. Thank you so much. Today, Vice President Harris is in Michigan working to shore up the blue wall, her simplest path to winning the White House. Nearly 2.8 million people have already cast ballots and early in-person voting ends today. NBC's Yamiche Alcindor joins us from Detroit. So, Yamiche, what are you hearing from inside the Harris campaign? And I know you spoke with the vice president earlier this week.
YAMICHE ALCINDOR:
Well, good morning, Kristen. From battleground Michigan, the Harris campaign is feeling cautiously optimistic as the vice president delivers a closing argument centered both on attacking former president Trump as a danger to democracy and on outlining her optimistic vision for the future. And this week, in an exclusive interview with me, Harris said, if elected, on her first day as president, she would put forth a package of bills centered on lowering the cost of living for Americans and that the economy will be her top priority. Meanwhile, senior Harris campaign officials say their internal data shows they are winning battleground voters who have made up their minds in the last week by double digits. Still, Harris is doing everything possible to avoid the blue wall crumbling like it did in 2016, hence today, she's here campaigning in Detroit and East Lansing. A Harris aide also tells me they have a big operation focused on Dearborn, Michigan, which has a significant Muslim community in this state. That source said Harris has, quote, "meaningful support" from local leaders there and some national Muslim groups. But Harris campaign events have been often interrupted by pro-Palestinian protesters, calling attention to the civilian death toll in Gaza. So, there is still a question of whether those voices will negatively impact her by staying home or voting third party, Kristen.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Yeah. The all-important blue wall. Great job getting that interview with the vice president. Thank you, Yamiche. Turning now to our brand new NBC News poll. National political correspondent Steve Kornacki is here to walk us through all of the numbers. Steve, this is the moment we have been waiting for. What does this poll show us?
STEVE KORNACKI:
Yeah. I mean, fittingly, isn't it, at the very end, we find a tie nationally. Forty-nine percent for Harris. Forty-nine percent for Trump. Really, that's what we found when we last polled this a couple weeks ago. We go under the hood here and look at some of the other numbers there. There's this question of enthusiasm. A couple notable things here. This is the share of voters who are calling themselves “very interested” in this election. You can see it stands at 77%, which is down from 2020 when we had that historic turnout. Also, interestingly here, the interest is lower among Hispanic voters and Black voters. Typically, you would say that is bad news for Democrats. But this year, keep in mind, among Black voters, that could be very troubling for the Democrats. But among Hispanic voters, the Trump folks are hoping for big strides. They've been seeing that in the polls. If that does not translate into Election Day votes, that could be trouble for them. Then we come to the issues that voters say that matter most to them and how they rate the candidates. And I think, again, notably, Harris continues to do best on abortion. Twenty-point advantage there. Trump continues to do best on inflation, cost of living. An advantage there of 12.
KRISTEN WELKER:
This is something to watch on Election Day, because, of course, she's actually doing better on abortion than Trump is doing on inflation and cost of living. We'll have to see how that pans out with the voters.
STEVE KORNACKI:
Absolutely. And we continue to take a look here. This other issue, we talked about it in our last poll, too. The dueling approval ratings. This is sort of an albatross for Harris here. Her administration that she's a part of, Joe Biden's approval rating, sits at just 41%. And then there's this twist. Donald Trump, retrospectively, do you now approve of how he did as president? In our poll, 48%, almost half give him that approval rating.
KRISTEN WELKER:
And we have to pause again because 48% is higher than the approval ratings he was getting when he was president, Steve. Really striking to see that.
STEVE KORNACKI:
Exactly. So is that a hidden advantage there for Trump in some way? Then there's this question, too. We just hear all the stories, all the images from early voting. And look at this. Two-thirds of voters in our poll say they've either voted already or they're going to vote early. On Election Day, one-third of the electorate actually saying they will turn out and vote then. And you can see. We saw a bit of this in 2020, remember? The early vote here, more Harris-friendly in our poll. That Election Day vote, that's the big wild card. You don't know what that turnout will look like on Election Day. But if Trump has an advantage there, you know, see if it's enough to overcome what he could potentially lose in the early side. And then the gender gap. Again, we've talked about this throughout the campaign. We've talked about this for decades. Trump up 18 with men. Harris 16 with women. That is a 34-point gender gap by about 10 points. If this happens, this would be the biggest gender gap ever recorded.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Stunning. And his lead with men, bigger than her lead with women.
STEVE KORNACKI:
It’s an interesting turnabout from, I think, what we've seen in the past in some cases here. And then you could just take a look here. These are the battleground states. We've got some new polls this morning. And I mean, yeah. What can you say? These are the averages. And look, the most “lopsided,” quote, unquote, 1.9 points –
KRISTEN WELKER:
Wow.
STEVE KORNACKI:
– for Trump in Arizona. So, razor-tight – razor-thin in the battleground states.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Yeah. Tight as a tick. And it comes as we're getting that striking new poll out of Iowa. Dasha mentioned it. What can you tell us about that?
STEVE KORNACKI:
Wow. This has thrown the political world for a loop because neither party – go back here – neither party has been treating Iowa as a battleground at the presidential level. Remember, Donald Trump did incredibly well here in '16 and '20, won by more than eight points. This would be, if this actually happened, Harris ahead by three over Trump in Iowa. That would be an 11-point shift for Harris in Iowa. What is the climate in Iowa? One thing that might be notable here is you look at where Harris is drawing her support from in this Des Moines Register poll. Among women, 20-point advantage over Trump. This is particularly strong for her, independent women and senior women. Trump, obviously, doing better with men. But one thing to keep in mind in Iowa, abortion has been front and center there with that new six-week ban that went into effect this summer.
KRISTEN WELKER:
That gender gap on display yet again. Fantastic stuff. We'll talk about it throughout the show. Steve Kornacki, great stuff. Thank you so much.
STEVE KORNACKI:
Thank you.
KRISTEN WELKER:
And joining me now is Democratic senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia. Senator Warnock, welcome back to Meet the Press.
SEN. RAPHAEL WARNOCK:
Good morning. Always great to be here with you.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Well, it is always great to be having you, especially on this very significant Sunday. Let's start off by talking about the results of our latest poll. Senator, 66% of voters believe the country is on the wrong track. As you know, historically, incumbent parties don't win re-election when the number is that high. Do you believe that Vice President Harris should have distanced herself more from President Biden and sooner?
SEN. RAPHAEL WARNOCK:
I believe, as this poll indicates, that this is a change election. And the voters in that regard have a very clear choice. They are saying that they want to turn the page. Donald Trump wants to turn back. It's in his slogan. It's in the proposals that he lays out, when he actually says something. He wants to make America great again. He wants to move back. We're not going back. We're moving forward. And I think you're seeing that. I'm feeling it here on the ground, the energy, the momentum is with Kamala Harris because she represents the future. She represents the hope and the promise of America, a country that is always forward-looking. And you have a 78-year-old president who wants to go back.
KRISTEN WELKER:
I hear you talking about the fact that it's a change election. She only narrowly leads former President Trump on that point. And when you were running for re-election you walked a very fine line when it came to President Biden in terms of distancing yourself, really holding him a bit at an arm's length. You were successful in that regard. Should she have done the same?
SEN. RAPHAEL WARNOCK:
What I did was I focused on the people that I was seeking to represent. And that's what Kamala Harris is doing every single day. Donald Trump is making this election about himself and about what's good for him. In fact, he has an enemies list. She has a to-do list. And among -- and on that list is protecting women and their right to choose. Donald Trump is saying he will protect women, and then he goes on to say, “I will protect women whether they want it or not.” I don't know about you but even as a man that sounds rather ominous coming from the mouth of a convicted sexual predator. We don't need a predator, we need a president in the Oval Office, and that person is clearly Kamala Harris. I think the voters are seeing that. And I believe that this will be a tight race. That's the nature of our country in this moment. But the momentum is with her.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Well, let's talk about something that happened this week. The vice president was delivering her closing argument at the Ellipse in Washington. As you know, at the same time President Biden seemed to refer to Donald Trump's supporters as “garbage” in reference to some comments that were made by a comedian. Now, the president quickly walked those comments back. He said, no, he was purely talking about the rhetoric. But do you believe that President Biden clouded, stepped on Kamala Harris' closing argument in a critical moment of this race, Senator?
SEN. RAPHAEL WARNOCK:
As the pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church, where Martin Luther King Jr. served, I think that we all need to elevate the character and the tone of our political discourse. And that's what Kamala Harris is doing. She is a joyful warrior. She is the candidate. And she is saying that we need to turn the page on this. You know, I think about the fact that ever since Donald Trump came down that escalator, American political discourse, the nature of the family conversation that we're having as an American people, has been going down. And thankfully we have a candidate who's – who’s looking – who’s forward-looking and who is lifting that conversation up. He has an enemies list. He thinks that people who disagree with him are the enemy. She is inviting them to sit with her at the table. I think that's what a leader looks like.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Senator, let's talk about another aspect of this race. Polls have consistently shown that Kamala Harris is trailing where President Biden was when it comes to Black voters. Former President Barack Obama, as you know, had a pretty blunt message for Black male voters. He called them out for, quote, “not feeling” the idea of a woman president. Do you believe – agree with former President Barack Obama?
SEN. RAPHAEL WARNOCK:
I can tell you what I'm feeling on the ground. I've been all over this country to several of the battleground states. I was in Michigan a couple weeks ago in a Black fraternity house, my own fraternity. I’ve spent time in barber shops. I've been encountering folks, obviously, in my church and other churches. And there is momentum for Kamala Harris. And the more voters hear about her, including Black men, the more they like her. Look, I've been through this. Folks were saying – and, you know, there was hand-wringing when I was running. And folks were saying, “Well, we're not sure about this turnout.” Let me tell you something: Black men are not going to show up in droves and waves voting for Donald Trump. They're not. And it's because they know who he is. This is the man who took out a full-page ad in the New York Times saying that the Central Park Five, these young men of color, should get the death penalty for what was indeed a heinous crime. And when it was proven that they were innocent he doubled down. Kamala Harris on the other hand understands the concerns of the African American community. She's laid out a plan to support and strengthen Black businesses, women-owned businesses, because she understands that small businesses are the backbone of our country. I'm proud of our coalition. It looks like America. And I believe that come Tuesday, while it's going to be a tight race, I believe the country is going to get this right. Here is my concern. We can all go back and forth. You know, I don't pay much attention to polls. I really trust what I feel on the ground. The race will be decided on Tuesday. We are seeing record turnout. And the Harris campaign, to their credit, is doing the hard work. They knocked on 56,000 doors in Georgia this past Saturday. So they're putting in the work. But the race will be decided Tuesday. We need everybody to show up.
KRISTEN WELKER:
All right. Senator Warnock, we've got a jam-packed show. So I will have to save my other questions for next time. But we covered a lot of ground. Thank you so much for being here on this Sunday before Election Day. We really appreciate it.
SEN. RAPHAEL WARNOCK:
Happy Sunday morning, everybody.
KRISTEN WELKER:
And to you. When we come back, Republican governor Doug Burgum of North Dakota joins me next.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Welcome back. And joining me now is Republican Governor Doug Burgum of North Dakota. Governor Burgum, welcome back to Meet the Press.
GOV. DOUG BURGUM:
Kristen, great to be with you. Good morning.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Good morning. Thank you for being here on the Sunday before Election Day. Great to have your perspective. Let's start off by talking about women voters and something that Nikki Haley said in particular. She's, of course, Trump's former primary rival, former UN ambassador. She said she does not believe the former president's closing message is resonating with women voters. Listen to what she had to say.
[START TAPE]
AMB. NIKKI HALEY:
This is not a time for them to get overly masculine with this bromance thing that they've got going. Fifty-three percent of the electorate are women. Women will vote. They care about how they're being talked to and they care about the issues. They need to remember that.
[END TAPE]
KRISTEN WELKER:
Governor, do you think that Mr. Trump's closing message is resonating with persuadable women voters?
GOV. DOUG BURGUM:
Well, I think that President Trump's closing message are – go beyond gender, they go beyond identity, they go beyond race. They go beyond all these things because what he talks about every day is the things that affect all Americans, whether you're a Democrat, an independent or Republican. Because again, when I'm on the ground, like I'm here in Pennsylvania today – you know, people are saying, “Hey, inflation is killing me,” the border’s a concern, safety in our cities, worried about the economy, and the jobs with this horrible jobs report we had on Friday. So, I think that the issues that he's talking about are resonating with voters and I think that's why, when you see in the polls that we've got a race that's very close, but President Trump is outperforming in all these polls where he was in ‘16 and ‘20. So, I'm very confident that the message that he's delivering that lifts up everyone is going to be the winning message on Tuesday.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Well, speaking of polls, of course, we have our poll which shows the race is all tied up. And then we have this new poll out of Iowa, which shows that Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Trump in Iowa, 47 to 44%. He had the lead by four points just about a month ago. So, do you think that he is failing to win over – that he's effectively losing women voters? Does he have a problem with women voters, governor?
GOV. DOUG BURGUM:
Well, I think there's an Emerson poll that came out in Iowa that's got President Trump up plus 10. I guess we'll find out on Tuesday where that is. But, you know, I was – I was in Iowa the night President Trump won 98 out of 99 counties, when he – there were a lot of choices for other Republican candidates than him to vote for that night. I think his strength there is across the entire state. And we know that polls vary a lot based on who you're sampling. You know, age, rural, urban, all of these things can matter. But, I think, again, if you take the average of the – of those last two polls, I think Trump is still going to confidently win Iowa. I would – I'd be surprised, completely shocked, if that comes anywhere close to being the fact in Iowa. I think your poll showing it being tied nationally is more accurate, because I think that's the feeling that I get on the ground, is a very tight race. It's going to be decided on Tuesday, but the momentum in the last week that I felt on the ground, including yesterday, being at that Penn State football game, is that the energy from all demographics is very, very positive. And in Pennsylvania, Trump's going to win because of the energy issues. Pennsylvania – He's going to win Michigan because of the auto workers. And so, I think in some of these swing states, it's in Trump's favor.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Governor, let me ask you about a big story this week, the campaign continuing to deal with the fallout from the offensive comments about Puerto Rico made by a supporter of former President Trump, by that comedian at that rally last weekend. The Puerto Rican community in Pennsylvania factors almost half a million people in that critical state, some saying they were absolutely furious about the comments, hurt that former President Trump hasn't apologized. Do you think that this incident could cost former President Trump the state of Pennsylvania, which is critical to winning?
GOV. DOUG BURGUM:
Well, I was there last Sunday at Madison Square Garden when this insult comic, at 3 p.m. in the afternoon, hours before President Trump even arrived at Madison Square Garden, made the comment, and the crowd was groaning. I mean, there was not approval from a very supportive Trump audience. So, this is not how Trump supporters feel. It's not how President Trump feels. And then – And then, of course, as you reported earlier today, you know, what a comic that no one's ever heard of says something, versus the president of the United States calling half the voters in the country garbage, President Biden. I mean, I think this shows two things. One, it's the disrespect of this administration for Americans and their concerns, whether it's the border, whether it's inflation. But it also reflects what we've seen is that Vice President Harris was part of this cover-up of Joe Biden's capacity.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Well, speaking of that, Governor, former President Trump had this to say back in September, on that point about garbage. Listen.
[START TAPE]
FMR. PRES. DONALD TRUMP:
It’s not her, it's the people that surround her. They're scum. They're scum. And they want to take down our country. They are absolute garbage.
[END TAPE]
KRISTEN WELKER:
So, Governor, is it hypocritical to fixate on President Biden's comments considering Donald Trump used the word “garbage” to describe Kamala Harris' supporters?
GOV. DOUG BURGUM
Well, I think what – again, what we're seeing here again this week, again, and whether the parsing of comments from the last seven days is not what's going to determine the election. I mean, you know, I would be thrilled to be on this show talking about the fact that North Korea is sending, you know, troops to Ukraine, that Israel is getting ready to confront Iran over their nuclear weapon. But this is American politics and this is the season of the last week before the election. There's always been – There's always a lot of name calling in the last week. This has all happened before. But I think in the end of the day, the voters are going to make a decision about, you know, their own condition, and people telling them what they should be enraged about because he or she said this thing is not the same as a person's lived experience. If their lived experience is they're having trouble making their paycheck, pay for their food, their gas, their clothing, their rent or their mortgage payment, that – that outweighs – In the end, the economy is what's going to drive voters on Tuesday, not what somebody may or may not have said. Most Americans don't have time to listen to all of these, these – the soap opera of which comments people should be concerned about.
KRISTEN WELKER:
All right. Well, Governor Burgum, as you know, enjoy talking foreign policy with you always. So we'll have you back to talk about that. But thank you for being here just days before the election to talk politics. We really appreciate it.
GOV. DOUG BURGUM:
Great. Thank you, Kristen.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Thank you. And when we come back, the closing message in the final days of the race. What will make a difference in this razor-tight election? The panel is next.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Welcome back. The panel is here: NBC News Chief Political Analyst Chuck Todd; former White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki, host of Inside with Jen Psaki; Cristina Londoño Rooney, senior Washington Correspondent for Telemundo; and Marc Short, former chief of staff to Vice President Mike Pence. Thanks to all of you for being here in our election headquarters studio.
JEN PSAKI:
It's finally here.
KRISTEN WELKER:
It's finally here. Here we are. And, Chuck, I have to kick it off with you. Set the scene of where we are. You have our poll which shows this race is deadlocked, hasn't really moved from our last poll. And then you have that poll out of Iowa. What do you make of these results?
CHUCK TODD:
Well, look, I'm going to set the Iowa poll result aside for a little bit. Look, I’ve looked at – there's sort of three outcomes of this race that we can all stare at that are staring at us, right? If you look at it through the prism of history, what happens when there are unpopular presidencies, that's advantage Trump. When you look at the last 10 days, who's had the better campaign, who's had the better closing? Well, that's clearly Harris. Trump has had a terrible last 10 days as far as who he's been trying to speak to. And then the data points to a tie, right?
KRISTEN WELKER:
Right.
CHUCK TODD:
Including our poll and all this other stuff. And it’s sort of – We're all trying to figure out, do campaigns still matter? How broken is the information ecosystem, right? You have certain things like that. So, you know, that's how I sort of enter this race, and I think we're all so spooked by shifts in the electorate that were missed in ‘16 and ‘20. I certainly think there's a lot of questionable polling techniques this year. As for the Iowa poll, look, if you know how she does her polling, she does not – she does not allow herself to be prejudiced by previous elections –
KRISTEN WELKER:
Ann Selzer –
CHUCK TODD:
Ann Selzer.
KRISTEN WELKER:
– who does the poll, yeah.
CHUCK TODD:
So, she’s always trying to figure out what is the electorate going to be, not try to tell you the result based on an electorate that was. It is why she's had more success than many other pollsters. So it may be that she's oversampled Democrats a little bit in her poll. They've made it through her survey. So, maybe Harris isn't winning by three. But I do think it's an important signal. We have seen that Harris is overperforming with older white voters. So, if you're overperforming with older white voters in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, you're likely doing well in Iowa. And I'd add another state to keep an eye on on election night to see if it narrows: Kansas, another state that is predominantly white, growing college education base in that state as well. And we've seen some numbers indicating that that was a single-digit state as well. So, if that is your signal, well, that is then the path to how Harris wins this presidency.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Jen, what do you make of what Chuck is saying, the demographic that we're looking at coming out of this Iowa poll, coming against the backdrop, as Chuck says, you're dealing with a president who is deeply unpopular and Vice President Harris is the vice president right now.
JEN PSAKI:
That's true. But if you're the Harris team and you're waking up this morning and Ann Selzer, who is the queen of all polling, just has a poll with you ahead in Iowa, you're feeling pretty good, not because you're banking on Iowa being in the win column for you, but because of what Chuck said. Because it could be a good sign of some demographic groups that she's been trying to make up ground with, which is older white voters. She has already coalesced and brought together the Democratic base for the most part, brought it back closer to the 2020 numbers for Biden. So that is a good sign. If you're the Harris team you're also feeling very good in that Iowa poll about the gender gap. You're feeling good about that when you're looking at early vote numbers, although I wouldn't really read into early vote numbers, but you're feeling good about that. And you're feeling good about late deciders, which showed up in that New York Times poll: 58/42 late deciders moving for Harris, including a big gap in the Sun Belt. So, you have a couple things you're feeling good about even if you're not betting on Iowa being in the win column.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Well, Marc Short, the thing that Republicans say they feel good about is the fact that Republicans are turning out in bigger numbers in early numbers than we have seen in the past two elections. What do you make of that? You think the story's actually a little bit more complicated.
MARC SHORT:
I think they should feel good about it. I think the reality is you want to bank those votes because you never know what's going to happen on Election Day if you're sick or weather or whatnot. So, I think it's a good data point for Republicans. But I don't think it's determinative, Kristen. Let's keep in mind that four years ago, Trump told Republicans that voting early, voting by mail is fraudulent, don't do it. So, if you're overperforming that, it's a pretty low baseline. But I think there's something else missing. In that Iowa poll as well it showed that 89% of Republicans voting for Trump. That's a big 11% of Republicans who may go somewhere else. I'm not questioning that Trump's going to win Iowa. I think that poll oversampled Democrats. But if you're having a defection at the top of the ticket, I think that's a big challenge you don't see just but Republicans are early voters. Arizona the last two cycles, 150,000 voters at the top of the ticket had not selected Donald Trump as a Republican ballot. So, that's missing in some of the data that's been coming back so far.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Yeah, and that's really the question, if what we saw in Iowa raises those types of questions in states with similar demographics. Cristina, let's talk about what I was talking about with Governor Burgum, this issue that the Trump campaign has been dealing with throughout the week, the fallout after that comedian made those really offensive comments about Puerto Rico. Based on our reporting, folks in Pennsylvania and other states are quite angry. Does it make a difference, particularly when the race is this close?
CRISTINA LONDOÑO ROONEY:
Well, first of all, Kristen, I would say it's not about what the comedian said. It's about Donald Trump not coming out and defending Puerto Ricans and not apologizing for his words. That's one thing. Then, if you go to the Latino Belt in Pennsylvania, we have anecdotal evidence, I can’t say – I don't have numbers, where Latinos that had already voted for Donald Trump are knocking on doors trying to rally the Harris vote because they are insulted. They're trying to remind the country that they're not immigrants. They're voters. And it's interesting to contrast it with the poll that came before it after the dogs – eating dogs and cats, where Latinos said, “He's insulting other immigrants. They’re not talking about us.” But the ones – the Puerto Ricans that are sticking with Donald Trump are those – the Evangelical vote, because of the abortion issue, that works the other way. They believe it's against their religion. And then the democracy issue, that's also big. And within the Latino community, the threat to democracy, they have heard from Donald Trump, is Kamala Harris. They think she's a socialist, she's a communist. He defined her like that, and she didn't fight back.
KRISTEN WELKER:
And it just raises the question, do these last-minute gaffes make a difference? We'll have to see. Great stuff. Thank you. We have a lot more coming up with the panel. Stand by, guys. When we come back, could the battleground actually expand? What does that stunning new Iowa poll mean for the race to 270? Steve Kornacki rejoins us. Stick around, next.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Welcome back. Could the 2024 battleground expand? That's the big question after that stunning new Iowa poll overnight. Steve Kornacki is back with me to break down what it could mean for the road to 270. Steve, what do you think?
STEVE KORNACKI:
Yeah, Kristen. I mean, that is the question here. Is this more of a state-specific phenomenon, what this poll is picking up in Iowa? Remember, abortion has been front and center there over the last few months. A six-week ban went into effect statewide over the summer. There's two Congressional races. There are millions of dollars being spent on them in the state on the issue of abortion. Is it driving something in Iowa we're not going to see necessarily elsewhere, or is it a ripple effect that we will feel elsewhere? The most obvious place to look, if it is, would be in Wisconsin. I just want to show you this. This is what Iowa looked like in 2020. Look at all the red on there. Now, I'm just going to go back to the last election before Donald Trump became the Republican standard-bearer. This was Barack Obama in 2012. Look how much blue you saw on this map. There's no state in the country with more Obama-Trump counties than Iowa. The second most, though, would be right here in Wisconsin. And, again, this is 2012 in Wisconsin. This is Obama. This is Trump last time. Look at all that red. Demographically, lots of similarities, lots of overlaps. So if something is happening in Iowa that's spilling over more broadly, this is the first place you would look, Wisconsin. But as you say, Kristen, the fact of this poll catching everybody surprised raises a reality. We have not seen much polling outside of the core battleground states this entire campaign. We've just assumed, both parties have assumed, there's not much to see there. But if there is, where else could you look? I'll give you one to look at early on election night, and it's New Hampshire. Polls close mostly at 7 o’clock. Biden won this by seven. 2016, though, this was the closest state that Clinton won, that she came the closest to losing. Look at that, a 3,000-vote margin. JD Vance is in New Hampshire today for the Trump campaign. This could be an early test if in general things are happening outside the battleground we haven't been talking about.
KRISTEN WELKER:
All right. Steve covering all of the angles for us today. We really appreciate it. And when we come back, after felony convictions, assassination attempts, and Biden's bowing out, the 2024 election has been historic on so many levels. We'll have much more with the panel next. Stay with us.
[START TAPE]
MAYA RUDOLPH:
Now Kamala, take my palmala. The American people want to stop the chaos.
VICE PRES. KAMALA HARRIS:
And end the dramala.
MAYA RUDOLPH:
With a cool, new step-momala, kick back in our pajamalas and watch a rom-comala.
VICE PRES. KAMALA HARRIS:
Like Legally Blondeala.
MAYA RUDOLPH:
And start decorating for Christmas. Fa-la-la-la-la. Because what do we always say?
BOTH:
Keep calmala and carry onala.
[END TAPE]
KRISTEN WELKER:
The vice president with a surprise appearance on Saturday Night Live last night, part of her closing strategy. Cristina, start us off. Let's fast forward to Tuesday night. What are you going to be watching for in this unprecedented, extraordinary election?
CRISTINA LONDOÑO ROONEY:
None of us thought we would ever be here. We would – we never thought we'd have Kamala Harris almost – you know, being tied with Donald Trump. So what I'm watching for is what this election is going to teach us, teach our country, the results. We’re going to – we have so much to learn about the new voters, the new parties. And I'm really looking forward to seeing if the power of the women – the woman voter and the power of the Latino vote, if this sleeping giant finally woke up and is making itself heard.
KRISTEN WELKER:
It's a powerful way to put it. Chuck, what are you going to be watching for and, to that point, about a sleeping giant and also new voters, which we're tracking quite closely?
CHUCK TODD:
Look, I think ultimately I'm paying attention to could we have a 2016 in reverse effect, meaning I do believe a lot of voters didn't know what they were going to do in 2016 and they went in and they decided what they didn't want, right? And they voted for, they voted for something different. They knew what they didn't want. They didn't know what they were going to get. I do believe, I’m – that, that the voter that walks into the booth that is thinking about Trump is probably voting for Harris and the voter that walks into the booth that's thinking about Biden is probably voting for Trump, for what it's worth. But let's step back. Whatever happens, this is not the beginning of something nor the end of something. We continue to be in the middle of something. We are about to do something we haven't done since the 19th century and that is have – we just finished two straight one-term presidents. The likelihood of this being a one-term presidency is high not low because we are a country that has been voting against. We voted against Hillary Clinton in '16 and got Trump. We voted against Trump in '20 and got Biden. I think this is another “vote against” election not a “vote for.” This isn’t – we sit here, we think it's about all these issues. This is really a cultural, like – this is people believe they are voting for a way of life, a good chunk of both sides of this, which is why nothing gets resolved after Tuesday night.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Such a fascinating way to put it, Chuck. And, Jen, you obviously worked for the Obama campaign, which was very much an election where people were voting for something, particularly if you look at some of the margins in some of these battleground states. What are you watching for, just reflecting on what Chuck said?
JEN PSAKI:
Yeah, and I would just reflect on something quickly Cristina said too. One, I think that for people, including a lot of people who are out there voting for Harris or people who might just be voting against Trump, for them it's bigger than issues. There's lots of issues we'll dive into, the economy, abortion, et cetera. It is about morality and character, and does that matter in leadership? It's also about preservation of democracy, and is that something we should stand for? Liz Cheney and Kamala Harris probably disagree on 80-plus percent of issues. They agree on that. Does that matter? So I'm watching that. And just to add to what Cristina said on the women's vote. Trump won white women pretty sizably over the last two cycles. It's not just about whether Harris wins white women or not, but is this the year of the women in the sense, the power of the woman's voice in politics? So not about electing women, it would be electeing a woman, but about abortion rights and other issues. And is that something that pushes the outcome in one direction?
KRISTEN WELKER:
Yeah, and speaking of which, your former boss, former Vice President Mike Pence, not endorsing Donald Trump. He hasn't come out and endorsed Kamala Harris, but what do you think a second Trump presidency, Marc, having served in the first one, would mean for the country?
MARC SHORT:
Well, Kristen, roughly 70% to 75% of the American people think we're on the wrong track right now. The top two issues are border security and the economy. This should be a Republican landslide year. If Trump prevails I think it's a testimony that people view him as a fighter who withstood a couple assassination attempts. But if he fails and Democrats win, despite everything being in Republicans' favor, I think it should be an enormous reckoning inside our party and our movement and a tremendous indictment against our party that this election cycle we abandoned our position on life, abandoned our position on marriage, abandoned our position in support of free markets and free trade, abandoned our national security positions. Now we're the biggest defenders of government-run Obama – health care. And I think that if that were the case, then I think it would necessitate true reckoning inside our party and our movement.
JEN PSAKI:
It may also mean that you shouldn't nominate an anti-democratic felon, you know? I mean it may not be about the issues. So it may be about the person who's at the top. There's lots of ways to look at it.
MARC SHORT:
I'm not going to sit here and say that the Democrats are the paragons of virtue and the defenders of democracy. I think there's plenty of evidence that when you nominate somebody who didn't win any one vote it's hard to suggest you're the defenders of democracy. But I do think that the Republicans in this cycle have abandoned what they traditionally stood for. And so I think there should be a reckoning inside our party.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Chuck?
CHUCK TODD:
Well, look, I, I – the fascinating aspect of this is neither party is going to be satis -- they are not going to accept defeat. The question is, "Do you accept defeat because you don't like the vote count," or, "Do you not accept defeat because you don't like how the party did it," right? I – you know, my greatest fear about this election is if Trump wins I think it, for a generation, is what they believe this is how you conduct yourself in politics and that this will cement this for a generation. I fear the transactional nature of him could actually turn the party into a kleptocracy if we're not careful. And one thing about political parties when they lose, they end up trying to emulate the party that wins. Not necessarily, and while Democrats have been trying to be the anti-version of this, losing two out of three, there's going to be its own reckoning inside the left that could have some saying, "Hey, if you can't beat them, join them," you know, whether it's lying or exaggerating, whatever you want to -- I do think that that is, that is what I think is on the ballot about our politics going forward for another, for another half generation.
JEN PSAKI:
I don't know if it's about being the same as the behavior, but I do think, and we were just talking about this, it may make the Democratic Party less inclined to take “risks” in terms of – risks I say in quotes – putting a woman at the top of the ticket, a woman of color at the top of the ticket. And does it make Democrats more reserved and less risk-averse, which I think would be a huge shame.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Cristina, we have less than a minute. I'm going to give you the final word, about 30 seconds.
CRISTINA LONDOÑO ROONEY:
What Chuck said. I just – whatever happens, I just hope it doesn't normalize politics the way it has been conducted from both sides. And I hope there's a much greater level of civility. And I don't think we're going to have another January 6th because I don't think people are going to go to bat for Donald Trump because they have been abandoned by – by him, the ones that are in jail right now.
KRISTEN WELKER:
All right. I think everyone hoping for a peaceful election cycle. Thank you all for a really thoughtful panel on this really important Sunday. And thank you for watching. Join us on Tuesday night for full election coverage right here on NBC. We'll be back next week because if it's Sunday, it's Meet the Press.