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At a closed-door meeting Tuesday, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Steve Daines showed fellow GOP senators an internal poll of a three-way Arizona Senate race that found Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leading with 41%, followed by Republican Kari Lake with 37% and independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema with 17%, said a source familiar with the meeting.
Notably, Daines told Republicans that Sinema is currently pulling more votes from Lake than she is from Gallego, despite her longtime affiliation with Democrats before she became an independent last year.
But Daines also predicted that dynamic would change after outside groups highlight Sinema’s support for the Biden administration, the source added.
Punchbowl News first reported on Daines sharing the poll.
Asked about the survey, NRSC spokesman Mike Berg said: “The poll’s margin of error is 4.4%, so the race is a statistical tie.”
A Sinema spokesperson declined to comment. Sinema has not said whether she will run for re-election as an independent in 2024.
The poll's overall finding matches Sinema’s private pitches to donors that she’s stronger with Republicans than with Democrats in the Arizona electorate, as NBC News recently reported.
Gallego campaign spokesperson Hannah Goss said: “Even Senate Republicans’ own poll agrees: Ruben Gallego is best positioned to win this race, go to the U.S. Senate, and continue his work of delivering for Arizonans by cutting costs, protecting our water future, and taking care of our veterans.”
A Lake spokesperson did not immediately return a message seeking comment Tuesday night.