Maryland Democratic candidates for governor face Baltimore voters in forum
BALTIMORE — Seven of the ten Maryland Democrats running for governor gathered for an economic empowerment forum here on Tuesday night where they discussed the city's issues and laid out their positions on proposed solutions.
For the candidates, it's a crucial city to court. In the 2018 Democratic gubernatorial primary, Baltimore City voters made up 14.3 percent of the primary electorate, the fourth largest county in the state by proportion of voters.
And it has plenty of issues for candidates to talk about — the city is last in the state in high school graduation rate, has the highest rate of homelessness in the state and the highest rate of crime per 100,000 people of any other county in the state. And in eight years under Republican Gov. Larry Hogan, Baltimore has seen a public transit plan for the city axed and funding withheld from some public schools.
It was with that backdrop that voters got a chance to scrutinize most of the candidates at Coppin State University in West Baltimore on Tuesday.
The candidates — former Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker, nonprofit leader Jon Baron, state Comptroller Peter Franchot, former state Attorney General Doug Gansler, former nonprofit executive Wes Moore, former U.S. Secretary of Education Tom Perez and philosopher Jerome Segal — discussed their plans to tackle criminal justice reform, economic inequality and expanding public transit.
Three candidates were not in attendance — former U.S. Secretary of Education John King, teacher Ralph Jaffe and Ashwani Jain, a former staffer in the Obama administration.
The candidates weighed in on their stances on the transit system, and explained their plans to implement the Blueprint for Maryland’s Future, an education bill passed by the state legislature in 2021.
On criminal justice reform, the candidates agreed there was more to be done to reform Baltimore’s police department, which has been embroiled in multiple scandals in the last ten years, including the 2015 death of an unarmed Black man, Freddie Gray, in police custody.
Baker touted his record on police reform as a county executive, telling viewers, “by the time I left, we had not only reduced crime by 50 percent, we also had reduced arrests.”
He added, “Here’s the thing. In this city, we have had over 2,000 murders over the last eight years. That is unacceptable.”
There’s very little light between the candidates in this race — all tout relatively progressive stances on everything from funding for Maryland's four HBCUs, K-12 education, transit and criminal justice. But questions about electability in a general election are creeping in.
Maryland is a deeply Democratic state — President Joe Biden won the state by more than 30 points in 2020. But, Hogan, a Republican, won the governor’s mansion for two terms in a row.
Gansler was the only one to bring up the subject on Tuesday, arguing that someone who has won a statewide election would be the best bet in a general election.
"We just need a governor who cares about Baltimore, which is why it’s going to be so important to elect a Democrat that can actually win," he told voters.
All ten candidates have less than three months left until the July 19 primary that was was pushed back from June due to redistricting issues.
The Democratic nominee will face one of four Republican candidates for governor — state Rep. Dan Cox, former state Commerce Secretary Kelly Schultz, attorney Robin Ficker and Joe Werner, who previously ran for office as a Democrat.
New poll shows warning signs for Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania’ Senate primary
A new Monmouth University poll of Pennsylvania’s upcoming Senate primaries next month contains warning signs for Dr. Mehmet Oz in the GOP contest, despite the celebrity doctor recently receiving former President Donald Trump’s endorsement.
Notably, the poll doesn’t have horserace numbers (this comes after Monmouth’s decision to stop election polling after erring in last year’s gubernational race in New Jersey).
But the other numbers — favorable/unfavorable scores, more likely/less likely to vote) — show Oz faring worse than rival David McCormick.
Favorable/unfavorable scores
- David McCormick 51 percent favorable, 15 percent unfavorable.
- Mehmet Oz 48 percent favorable, 37 percent unfavorable.
- Jeff Bartos 28 percent favorable, 6 percent unfavorable.
- Kathy Barnette 37 percent favorable. 5 percent unfavorable.
More likely/less likely to support
- McCormick 61 percent likely to support (including 19 percent very likely) vs. 29 percent not likely to support.
- Oz 51 percent likely to support (including 22 percent very likely) vs. 42 percent not likely to support.
- Barnette 51 percent likely to support (including 18 percent very likely) vs. 33 percent not likely to support.
- Bartos 45 percent likely to support (including 7 percent very likely) vs. 39 percent not likely to support.
Asked specifically about Trump’s endorsement of Oz, 22 percent of GOP voters say it gives them a more favorable view of Oz, 8 percent say a less favorable view, and 69 percent say it makes no difference.
For the Democratic Senate primary, frontrunners Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and Congressman Conor Lamb both enjoy positive numbers, but Fetterman’s are stronger.
Favorable/unfavorable scores
- John Fetterman 68 percent favorable, 5 percent unfavorable.
- Conor Lamb 51 percent favorable, 6 percent unfavorable.
- Malcom Kenyatta 32 percent favorable, 4 percent unfavorable.
More likely/less likely to support
- Fetterman 74 percent likely to support (including 44 percent very likely) vs. 13 percent not likely to support.
- Lamb 59 percent likely to support (including 23 percent very likely) vs. 24 percent not likely to support.
- Kenyatta 40 percent likely to support (including 14 percent very likely) vs. 45 percent not likely to support.
The Monmouth poll of Pennsylvania was conducted April 20-25, and it has a maximum margin of error of plus-minus 4.9 percentage points.
Midterm roundup: Ad-Vance-ing in the polls
WASHINGTON — Next week’s Ohio primary will be the first big test of whether former President Donald Trump’s endorsement can propel a candidate to victory, and a new poll shows that it might.
Fox News released a poll of the GOP Senate primary showing Trump’s pick in the race, “Hillbilly Elegy” author J.D. Vance, at 23 percent among Republican primary voters — followed by former state Treasurer Josh Mandel at 18 percent, investment banker Mike Gibbons at 13 percent, state Sen. Matt Dolan at 11 percent and former state GOP Chairwoman Jane Timken at 6 percent.
Importantly, Vance’s 5-point lead is within the poll’s margin of error, and 25 percent of GOP primary voters say they’re still undecided.
Meanwhile, the race has pitted Trump against Club for Growth Action, threatening their alliance, per The New York Times. The group, which is backing Mandel, launched a new ad with footage of Vance describing himself as a “Never Trumper.”
Elsewhere on the campaign trail:
Georgia Senate: Former football player Herschel Walker reserved $1 million in airtime in his first major TV buy of the Georgia Senate race tracked by AdImpact. Walker is Trump’s pick in the race, and he is favored to win the May 24 GOP primary. His first TV ad is a 30-second bio spot that also touts Trump’s endorsement.
Utah Senate: Republican Sen. Mike Lee is out with a new spot framing him as someone who hasn’t been changed by Washington.
Florida Governor: The Dispatch reports that Democratic Rep. Charlie Crist has only voted in person four days of this House session, with his spokeswoman saying “the proxy offers a great way to ensure his constituents’ voices continue to be heard” while he’s running for governor.
Kansas Governor: Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly is up with a new spot where she literally stands in the middle of the road to argue she’s “not too far right, or too far left.”
Maryland Governor: At an economic empowerment event in Baltimore last night, seven of 10 candidates for the Democratic nomination for governor discussed their plans for criminal justice reform, the implementation of new public transit and education.
North Carolina 11: Republican Rep. Madison Cawthorn had a rough news day, first accused of bringing a gun to the airport before a new report from the Washington Examiner questioning whether he improperly touted a cryptocurrency based on the “Let’s Go Brandon” meme.
Texas 28: South Carolina Democratic Rep. Jim Clyburn is heading to Texas to stump for Rep. Henry Cuellar before next month’s Democratic primary runoff.
McCormick hits Oz over Trump endorsement in new ad
After Monday night’s Republicans debate in Pennsylvania’s Senate race, where Mehmet Oz touted his endorsement from former President Donald Trump, rival David McCormick has released a new TV ad directly addressing Trump’s endorsement of Oz.
“I like Trump,” says one voter in ad.
“I love Trump,” says another.
“But not his Senate pick,” says a third voter.
“Trump made a mistake on this,” says a fourth.
McCormick struck the same themes in Monday night’s debate, where he told voters, “the reason Mehmet keeps talking about President Trump’s endorsement is because he can’t run on his own positions and his own record.”
Oz did tout his endorsement from Trump multiple times on the debate stage Monday night. At one point he said, "Mr. McCormick approached President Trump ... but was unable to pull the wool over his eyes. President Trump saw right through him. He therefore did not endorse Mr. McCormick, he did endorse me."
This commercial is the latest in an ad war between Oz and McCormick, who have spent over $20 million combined on the airwaves so far, according to AdImpact, an ad tracking firm.
Oz and McCormick are neck-and-neck in the race and have been at a near tie in recent local polling. The state’s primary is just three weeks away, on May 17.
Cisneros attacks Cuellar on abortion ahead of May runoff
Texas Democrat Jessica Cisneros has launched her first new ad ahead of her runoff election against Repp. Henry Cuellar, a spot that criticizes the incumbent for his 2021 vote against expanding abortion access.
The ad's narrator begins the spot by mentioning Texas' strict abortion law, which went into effect last year and is being challenged in court. It goes on to note that Cuellar, shortly after the state law passed, voted against a federal law that aimed to codify abortion rights protections.
Cuellar was "the lone Democrat against a woman's right to make her own decisions," the narrator says.
"On May 24, you can have the last word. Jessica Cisneros is the pro-choice candidate who will fight for our health care and always protect our right to make our own decisions."
Cuellar has long been to the right of his party's base on emotional issues like immigration and abortion, something that has fueled progressives like Cisneros to oppose him. But the longtime congressman has defended himself from those attacks for years, arguing he's representing the will of his constituents and that he delivers for the district.
The latter is the focus of a new Cuellar ad, where a woman says: "Henry helps us with prescriptions and Social Security benefits. If we lose him in Congress, we lose everything."
Pa. Democratic Senate primary to see increased ad spending as challengers try to catch Fetterman
With just a few weeks left before Pennsylvania’s midterm primary election, candidates have started to target the frontrunner in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.
Lt. Gov. John Fetterman has led in the polls and was dominating the campaign ad airwaves up until a few weeks ago. One of the first outside groups to attack him, a pro-Rep. Conor Lamb group called Pennsylvania Progress, drew ire from establishment Democrats for calling Fetterman a “silver spoon socialist.”
Since then, Fetterman has had to engage in two debates with his rival candidates — Lamb, state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta and Jenkintown Borough Council member Alexandria Khalil — where he’s been questioned about a 2013 incident where he pointed a firearm at an unarmed Black jogger. The incident was briefly mentioned again at the most recent debate Monday night where Fetterman again denied the allegation that he pointed the gun at the man's chest, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer.
His candidacy has also been criticized as being too progressive to win a general election in Pennsylvania. and in Monday's debate, he flashed some progressivism by arguing that government spending packages passed under the Biden administration didn't contribute to rising inflation.
The contest is about to expand to the airwaves. Through Tuesday, Fetterman has spent the most on TV ads of all the Democratic candidates and groups — over $3.5 million according to AdImpact, an ad tracking firm. Lamb has spent over $1.4 million and Kenyatta trails at less than $100,000.
Outside groups have spent less than Fetterman as well, with Pennsylvania Progress, the group that called him a socialist, having spent $1.2 million before today.
But looking ahead, Fetterman could be outspent in the remaining days leading up to the May 17 primary. For the period between Tuesday and May 17, Lamb has secured $1.3 million worth of ad space and Fetterman has only secured $714,000 worth, according to AdImpact.
Pennsylvania Progress has also already planned over $230,000 worth of ad time.
Oregon Democrat touts Biden endorsement in new TV ad
Rep. Kurt Schrader, D-Ore., has launched a new TV ad touting President Joe Biden’s endorsement ahead of the May 17 primary.
The 30-second spot features footage of Biden praising Schrader earlier this month, saying the seven-term congressman has "played a key part in the progress we've made as a nation on jobs, economic growth and clean energy. And he's [a] strong and consistent voice to make sure we modernize infrastructure and help Oregon and everyone all across America."
Schrader is a member of the moderate Blue Dog Coalition, and he led the group's political arm. Schrader has broken with Biden on some high-profile votes, including as one of two Democrats who voted against Biden's so-called American Rescue Plan for pandemic relief. He also opposed a proposal that would have allowed Medicare to negotiate prices for prescription drugs.
Schrader is now trying is trying to fend off a primary challenge from his left in the newly drawn 5th District. He faces former Talent City Manager Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who has been endorsed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass.
Roughly $2.5 million has been spent on ads in the race, which has divided national and local Democrats. A trio of outside groups, including two with ties to the pharmaceutical industry, has spent a combined $1 million on ads supporting the congressman, according to the ad tracking firm, AdImpact. McLeod-Skinner has only spent $100,000 on the airwaves.
Midterm roundup: Peach State poll
A new Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll shows Georgia Gov. Brain Kemp with a significant lead over his GOP primary challenger, former Sen. David Perdue, despite Perdue running with former President Donald Trump’s endorsement. A majority of likely GOP voters — 53 percent — back Kemp, while 27 percent support Perdue.
Kemp needs to win a majority of the May 24 primary vote to avoid a runoff.
Trump, for his part, is sticking by Perdue, saying in a statement last night, “it is not easy to beat an incumbent, however, if our voters turn out, David Perdue will win in a landslide.”
The poll also finds 66 percent of likely primary voters supporting former football player Herschel Walker, who has Trump’s backing in the Senate race, while the other candidates polled in the single digits. Roughly 23 percent said they were undecided.
The University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs conducted the poll, surveying 866 likely primary voters from April 10-22. The survey had margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.
Elsewhere on the campaign trail:
Colorado Senate: Republican Joe O’Dea is up with a new ad touting his business career, highlighting his support for the military and police, as well as a promise to “stop inflation.”
Ohio Senate: Former state Treasurer Josh Mandel has a new ad that features footage of Trump-backed candidate J.D. Vance saying he’s a “never-Trumper.”
Florida Governor: Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis signed into law a new bill that creates an election police unit for the state that will investigate voter fraud and other election-related crimes.
Pennsylvania Governor: Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro, the top Democrat in the gubernatorial race, is up with his first TV ads with a minute-long bio spot and an ad highlighting his work against predatory student loan companies.
Texas Governor: Democrat Beto O’Rourke tested positive for Covid, and says his symptoms are mild.
Wisconsin Governor: GOP businessman Tim Michels launched his gubernatorial bid Monday that he says he will fund primarily with his own personal wealth.
Ohio 11: The Democratic Majority for Israel PAC goes after former Bernie Sanders campaign co-chair Nina Turner in a new ad as Turner takes on Democratic Rep. Shontel Brown in a primary rematch.
Kansas redistricting: A district court judge rejected the GOP legislature’s congressional map, ordering the legislature to draft another one that is less partisan and does not dilute the power of minority groups.
Climate agenda: NBC’s Julie Tsirkin reports that West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin and Alaska Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski organized a bipartisan meeting to discuss the possibility of a bipartisan climate and energy security bill, including seven GOP senators, eight Democratic senators and three House members.
Young Americans sour on Biden, politics broadly
Young Americans could still turn out in droves in the midterms, but they’re souring on President Joe Biden and politics writ large, according to a new online poll from the Harvard Institute of Politics. The new survey comes amid Democratic fears that a depressed youth turnout could hurt their chances in November.
A majority of 18 to 29 year-olds surveyed in the poll agreed that “politics today are no longer able to meet the challenges our country is facing.” Just 41 percent of young Americans approved of Biden, which is down from a similar survey conducted in the late fall, which found 46 percent of young Americans approved of Biden.
The online poll, which had a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points, did find that young voters expressed interest in the upcoming midterm elections, with 36 percent saying they will definitely vote. That figure was at 37 percent during the 2018 midterms, which saw record high youth turnout for a midterm.
Young Americans also still tend to favor Democrats, with 55 percent saying they preferred Democratic control of Congress, and 34 percent saying they preferred GOP control. B
But Young Republicans reported an increase in enthusiasm about the election, while Democratic enthusiasm dropped compared to 2018.
That year, 51 percent of Democrats said they were more likely to vote, while 46 percent now say the same. Meanwhile 43 percent of Republicans said they were more likely to vote, an increase from the 36 percent who said the same in 2018.
"While this is an off-year election; there’s no evidence in this survey that young Americans are off the grid,” IOP Polling Director John Della Volpe said in a statement. “Their contempt for a system that favors the elite and is overwhelmingly partisan is clear, but at the same time they see a role for government and are unlikely to abandon those most in need.”
The poll surveyed 2,024 18 to 29 year-olds online from March 15 through March 30.
Ad Watch: Democratic senate candidate hits both parties in new spot
Republicans appear to have a midterm strategy to win over voters this year — attack President Joe Biden and Democrats over inflation and immigration. On top of those issues, Democrats are also facing a stalled agenda, and a war between Russia and Ukraine as they have struggled to settle on a unified message.
In North Carolina, Democrat Cheri Beasley, a former state Supreme Court chief justice, is trying out one message she hopes will resonate with voters: Blame both parties.
In a new ad out Monday, Beasley tells voters, "Looking at Washington, I think both parties are doing the job wrong. Instead of focusing on what people care about, they get caught up in political games."
Beasley is not the only candidate distancing herself from both parties to gain favor with voters. Earlier this month, Rep. Tim Ryan, D-Ohio, ran an ad in his campaign for U.S. Senate where he said, “We can't afford to be Democrats and Republicans. Right now, we have to be Americans first."
Both Beasley and Ryan are running in states with incumbent Republican senators. Ryan is running to fill Sen. Rob Portman's, R-Ohio, seat when he retires at the end of his term. Beasley is looking to flip Sen. Richard Burr's, R-N.C., seat when he retires at the end of his term.
In Georgia, too, Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., has struggled to find a message to entice voters after just one year in office, where Democrats failed to pass any major piece of President Biden's agenda. In a recent ad, he highlighted just that — his newness to the Senate.
"In just a year in the Senate did I think I could fix Washington? Of course not," he says in the ad, trying to convince voters that he needs a full term to make a big difference.