The biggest loser: Turnout
Before the snow came and the temperature dropped below zero and roads were caked in ice, Republicans had predicted this year's turnout for the caucuses would smash records.
Some went so far as to say the number of voters might reach 200,000 — well above the nearly 187,000 who showed up for the last contested Republican caucus in 2016.
Then winter spoke.
With some votes left to be tallied, it was clear that turnout tonight was much lower than had been expected before frigid winds ripped across the state. The NBC News Decision Desk projected that it would amount to about 120,000 voters, more in line with the turnout in 2012 than in 2016.
Ramswamy to hold news conference
Iowa student who caucused with Ramaswamy unsurprised by Trump's success
A track athlete at the University of Iowa who caucused for Ramaswamy tonight said he was not surprised that Trump appears to have run away with the Iowa caucuses.
“He’s a very popular man in America,” Joe Stein said of the former president, adding that Americans "had a better lifestyle" when Trump was in office.
Stein said that Ramaswamy lacked name recognition and suggested that he wasn't sure if Iowans "were really aware he was a real option."
Stein said he also wasn't surprised that Haley won all three precincts on the campus of the University of Iowa’s Union building.
“Johnson County is historically a liberal county, and she’s probably the least conservative candidate," Stein said.
Stein also pointed to weather affecting turnout at the caucus sites.
“I think it took it took a lot of effort for us to get here tonight with the temperatures and it’s easy to be lazy and stay at home and watch the football game,” Stein said.
Caucusgoers frustrated by race projection timing
Some Iowa caucusgoers and DeSantis’ campaign expressed frustration that news outlets projected that Trump had won the caucuses before some of them had the chance to vote.
Sandee Wright, a caucusgoer supporting Ramaswamy, said Trump was projected to be the winner before anyone gave a speech at that precinct location in Scott County.
“I think it’s sort of appalling, actually,” she said, adding: “When there’s a call like that in advance, it sort of says, ‘Oh, it doesn’t really matter that you showed up to the caucus and that you came to actually get more information and make a decision. It’s a done deal.’ So why show up?”
Another caucusgoer told NBC News, “They called the race before my precinct even started voting.”
NBC News was not the first outlet to project Trump would be the winner — a number of outlets called the race shortly after 8:30 p.m. ET. The Iowa caucuses started at 8 p.m. ET.
NBC News makes its projections using a combination of data from entrance polls (in the case of caucuses), votes counted and analysis of statistical models.
In a caucus, voting begins at a certain time and projections are made in part on those results. In primaries, voting ends at a certain time and then votes are tabulated and projections are made.
DeSantis’ campaign also aired its frustrations, both on social media and in an interview with NBC News.
NBC News Iowa entrance poll: Trump edges out Haley among independents
Trump is narrowly beating Haley among independents in the Iowa GOP caucuses, according to NBC News entrance poll results.
Among independents, who made up 16% of caucusgoers tonight, 41% said they were supporting Trump, while 35% said they were backing Haley. Another 12% were behind Ramaswamy, and 10% were for DeSantis.
Who are the independents supporting Trump tonight? They are mostly men (61%), over 45 years old (69%) and college graduates (57%), and they identify as conservative (74%).
As for caucusgoers who identified as Republicans, 52% voted for Trump, compared to 25% for DeSantis and 16% for Haley.
Biden campaign fundraises off of Trump's front-runner status
Biden's campaign sent fundraising emails to supporters, arguing that "we need to work even harder now" after outlets projected Trump to win the Iowa caucuses.
"If Donald Trump is our opponent, we can expect vile attacks, endless lies, and massive spending," the email said. "I know we ask a lot of you -- but I hope I can count on your support in a big moment like this."
The email includes a donation link, asking readers to invest in the campaign and "protect all of the progress we’ve made together."
Trump running 30-plus points ahead of 2016 showing in completed counties
Trump got 71.3% support in Van Buren County and 60.7% support in Decatur County, where all precincts have been counted. That's a 43-point improvement over Trump's 2016 showing in Van Buren and a 35-point improvement in Decatur — both of which went for Ted Cruz eight years ago.
NBC News Iowa entrance poll: Majority of GOP caucusgoers favor a federal law banning abortion
A majority (59%) of Iowa Republican caucusgoers favor a federal law banning most or all abortions nationwide, while 36% oppose such a ban, according to NBC News entrance poll results.
Just 12% of Iowa GOP caucus participants said that abortion is the most important issue facing the country today.
Here's how Iowa Republican caucusgoers who said they favor a federal law banning abortions nationwide break down: Republican (89%), 45 years old and over (77%), evangelical or born-again Christian (68%), very conservative (76%), and male (54%).
Ramaswamy gets a delegate. Trump, Haley, DeSantis each score one more.
Trump, Haley and DeSantis have each ticked up by one delegate. Trump now leads with 17 delegates, while Haley and DeSantis trail behind with five delegates each, according to an NBC News tally. Ramaswamy has also obtained one delegate. That’s with 6% of the vote in.
Delegates breakdown so far
Trump, the projected winner of the Iowa caucuses, leads with 16 delegates, while Haley and DeSantis each have four delegates, according to an NBC News tally. That's with 5% of the vote in.