Highlights from the 2024 campaign trail:
- Former President Donald Trump has a dominant lead in the final NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll before Monday's caucuses, with former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley slightly ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in a tight race for second.
- Trump hit out at businessman Vivek Ramaswamy on social media, stemming from Ramaswamy's recent insistence that support for Trump would be wasted because "the system" is lined up against him.
- Republican presidential hopefuls packed the day full of campaign events in Iowa, but they are still contending with low temperatures, wind and the heavy snow that forced the cancellation of some events Friday.
- The National Weather Service said Des Moines, Iowa, and surrounding areas remain under a winter weather advisory until midnight — and a wind chill warning through Monday's caucuses.
- Caucusgoers hunkering down at home will see more than $2.6 million in GOP TV ads through Jan. 15, according to AdImpact. Haley’s super PAC is spending the most, followed by one of DeSantis’ super PACs.
Trump heads into caucuses with dominant lead in final Iowa poll
Boosted by his standing with evangelical Christians, first-time caucusgoers and registered Republicans, Trump holds a nearly 30-point lead in the final NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll before Monday’s GOP caucuses.
The poll also finds Trump enjoying the backing of the most enthusiastic and committed likely caucusgoers, which could be crucial as the state grapples with subzero temperatures and even colder wind chills on caucus night.
The topline results: Trump at 48%, Haley at 20%, DeSantis at 16% and Ramaswamy at 8%.
Haley's campaign reacts: "The DMR poll shows the Haley momentum continues to grow, but we take nothing for granted. Despite the cold weather, on Monday, Iowans will have the first chance in the nation to voice their desire for a new generation of conservative leadership with Nikki Haley, instead of more of the same with Donald Trump."
Trump spoke out as well: "Our grassroots supporters have put us in position to win, and now we have to show up to caucus for President Trump on Monday and get the job done. We have to show up."
DeSantis' campaign wrote in a "messaging guidance" memo that "winning campaigns don't rely on public data," though it didn't mention any private data, either. The campaign also noted that turnout for Monday's caucuses is in flux in the cold weather.
Ramaswamy reacts to Trump attacks by claiming momentum
Ramaswamy declined to attack back when asked about Trump's social media brushback of him tonight, telling NBC News in Cherokee, Iowa, that he thinks the former president is going after him because of his performance.
“I think it’s amicable now,” said Ramaswamy of him and Trump’s relationship despite the frosty Truth Social post. “The reality is I am surging late on the ground. There’s no secret there."
Asked explicitly if he believes Trump sees him as a threat, Ramaswamy hedged a bit. “I can’t speak for them. But I do think that anybody who’s paying attention to this race sees exactly what’s happening on the ground and you’d have to have your head in the sand not to see it.”
And asked if he regretted making the t-shirts that said “Save Trump, vote Vivek,” sparking the Trump campaign's reaction this evening, Ramaswamy claimed to be unfazed.
“No. I stand by it. I think that the reality is I am worried for this country. I am worried for Trump. I’m worried for the future of our constitutional republic.”
Trump jabs at Haley, New York judge
Trump sat down with Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird for a livestream tonight, jabbing at Haley (and barely mentioning DeSantis) while also going after the judge in the E. Jean Carroll case, who denied a request to delay for the funeral of Melania Trump's mother.
The former president spoke about Haley's time in his administration: "She was okay, but she’s not strong enough to be president. I know her very well."
Trump's campaign cancelled a number of his in-person events this weekend amid the stormy weather in Iowa. He only has one rally remaining on his schedule before Monday's caucuses.
Trump campaign's N.H. co-chair loses vote for RNC position
Elizabeth Girard, a co-chair of Trump's campaign in New Hampshire, lost a vote today for a position as the state's Republican National Committeewoman.
Mary Jane Beauregard defeated Girard by a 212-141 vote. Each state Republican Party sends a male and female committee member to the RNC along with the state party chair.
A DeSantis supporter and a Trump supporter prep caucus speeches
One unique aspect of the Iowa caucuses will come before any ballots are cast, when supporters are invited to address caucusgoers and make their pitches for their preferred candidates.
Campaigns have worked to organize speakers at many of the more than 1,600 precincts. And they can change some minds.
"There’s still some people, in spite of all the mailers, in spite of all the commercials, in spite of all the talk, they’re not gonna make up their mind until Monday night," said Gary Leffler, 62, who will serve as a Trump campaign captain for his precinct in West Des Moines.
Leffler said he isn't going to use the Trump campaign talking points. Instead he's centering his pitch on returning to the economic conditions and lower prices of the Trump era.
"I'm not big on letting the campaigns having to tell me what to say. I want to be able to — because to me, I can relate better to people by telling the story like [that] my kids were able to afford a home," Leffler said at Trump’s Iowa campaign headquarters Saturday afternoon.
Over at the headquarters for Never Back Down, a super PAC backing DeSantis, Gordon Smith was among the DeSantis supporters who showed up to see the Florida governor address the group. Smith, 88, said he received a call from Never Back Down and was asked to speak in support of DeSantis at his precinct in Beaverdale. He agreed to do it, joking it was "much to my wife's chagrin."
Smith said he did receive some talking points, but he also isn't going to use them.
"I'm just going to say why I believe he's right," Smith said, noting he supports DeSantis because of his background in the military. Smith has already started writing his speech, but said so far it will "probably take up to about eight hours."
"So my wife says it's got to be five minutes," Smith said with a laugh.
DeSantis' mom hits the trail in a rare bit of public politicking
DeSantis’ mom is on the campaign trail, and that’s not the norm.
Former Rep. Keith Rothfus, R-Pa., posted on social media that he was with DeSantis’ mother, Karen, going door to door in a frigid Iowa two days before the Iowa caucuses.
“Walking precincts in sub-0 windchills w/@RonDeSantis’ mom in #Iowa,” Rothfus posted on X, formerly known as Twitter. “An original #MamasforDeSantis, she’s showing #Courage being out in this cold.”
It’s a rare occurrence for DeSantis’ immediate family on the campaign trail. His parents have been out of the spotlight during DeSantis' runs for Florida governor and most of his presidential campaign, and he has rarely mentioned them since winning the governorship in 2018.
DeSantis’ father, also named Ron, did talk to a New Yorker reporter who unexpectedly showed up at his door for a profile on DeSantis in 2022.
Trump brushes back Ramaswamy
The Trump campaign took perhaps its most direct shot at Ramaswamy yet, after Ramaswamy posted a picture on social media with supporters wearing shirts that said "Save Trump, vote Vivek."
The shirts echo Ramaswamy's recent patter on the campaign trail, where he has professed his support for Trump but told Iowans not to waste their caucus support on him because "the system" will not let Trump be president again.
Trump senior adviser Chris LaCivita was not amused, calling Ramaswamy "FAKE" in a post on X and saying "Trump doesn't need 'saving.'"
The former president soon weighed in on Truth Social: "Vivek started his campaign as a great supporter, 'the best President in generations,' etc. Unfortunately, now all he does is disguise his support in the form of deceitful campaign tricks. Very sly, but a vote for Vivek is a vote for the 'other side' — don’t get duped by this. Vote for 'TRUMP,' don’t waste your vote!"
Many of Ramaswamy's supporters are also hardcore Trump people. Even if they aren’t going to vote for Ramaswamy, they still really admire him and want him as Trump's VP pick — or to run in 2028 after Trump. Now with Trump taking a direct jab, this is going to be crushing for him.
A source familiar with the Trump campaign said one word to me when I asked for a response about Ramaswamy's new t-shirts: "Fraud."
Iowans are contending with not just snow but high winds and low temperatures.
DeSantis ally makes the case against Trump and Haley
Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, took some direct shots at Trump and Haley this afternoon at an event in West Des Moines.
“The people of Iowa know that the road to the White House goes through this state,” Roy said at the event, held at the Iowa headquarters of Never Back Down, a DeSantis-aligned super PAC. “They know that you have to earn their vote. You can’t be anointed. You can’t assume it. You can’t not show up to the debate. You can’t cancel an event in Cass County.”
Trump, who has skipped all of the GOP presidential debates, postponed a Cass County event scheduled for this weekend and has largely scaled back his plans to campaign in the state before Monday’s caucuses.
“You can’t dismiss the people of Iowa as a certain former governor of South Carolina did when she said the New Hampshire will ‘correct’ Iowans,” Roy added, referencing Haley.
Roy wrapped his remarks with another pointed attack on Trump. “I’m tired of someone who got to Washington and on the first week of the job was more concerned about the crowd size [than he was] making sure Obamacare got repealed and replaced.”
Ramaswamy IDs potential D.C. allies, including Trump's latest endorser
Asked by an Iowan in Okoboji who his Capitol Hill allies would be on his mission to defeat the "deep state," Ramaswamy named three Republican senators, including Utah Sen. Mike Lee, who just endorsed Trump yesterday.
“Rand Paul doesn’t always have the exact same views as many of the traditional Republican wing,” Ramaswamy added. Paul recently posted a video to X complimenting Trump, DeSantis, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Ramaswamy before making clear he’s opposed to former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley.
Ramaswamy added: “People who are strong constitutionalists — I think that, you know, I think Ted Cruz is a constitutionalist,” saying he was in communication with some of these politicians. Ramaswamy also added that Cruz and Lee are on his shortlist for nominees for the Supreme Court.