What we know
- This week China is holding its biggest political gathering of the year in Beijing, the capital. The National People’s Congress, the country’s highest legislative body, will meet starting Tuesday, while a concurrent meeting of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, a top advisory body, began Monday. The weeklong meetings are being held at the cavernous, ornate Great Hall of the People on the west side of Tiananmen Square.
- Though largely ceremonial in nature, the legislative sessions provide insight into the thinking of China’s ruling Communist Party and what the government’s plans are for the coming year. Of particular interest to international observers is what measures officials will take to address China’s economic slowdown.
- On the eve of the National People’s Congress, China made a surprise announcement: Premier Li Qiang will not hold a news conference at the end of the meeting on March 11. It’s the first time in 30 years that China is scrapping the premier’s news conference, a rare opportunity for journalists from around the world to ask questions of a top Chinese leader.
- Janis Mackey Frayer and the NBC News team are reporting live from Beijing.
Defense spending to increase 7.2%
The Chinese government plans to increase its defense budget 7.2%, according to a draft budget report submitted to the legislature Tuesday. It is the same rate of increase as last year and the ninth consecutive year of single-digit increases in defense spending.
The U.S. and other countries in the Asia-Pacific region keep a close eye on China's defense spending and military development amid tensions over the status of Taiwan and China's growing aggression in the South China Sea, a strategic waterway that Beijing claims virtually in its entirety.
A new foreign minister?
Heading into this NPC, there has been a lot of speculation about China’s next foreign minister. The country has been without one since Qin Gang was abruptly fired last year, setting off a wave of rumors about a man once regarded as part of Xi’s inner circle.
Currently, Wang Yi holds down the position in addition to his job as the country’s chief diplomat. Judging by comments officials made yesterday, it is unlikely that a new foreign minister will be announced by the end of this year’s session (or any time in the near future, it seems).
The front-runner is still widely believed to be Liu Jianchao, who started his career as a translator in 1987 and has worked his way up through the foreign ministry ranks, including as China’s ambassador to Indonesia and the Philippines. Already, Liu has been doing some diplomatic globetrotting even if he hasn’t been anointed yet.
Qin’s "resignation" as a delegate to this year’s National People’s Congress was accepted last week, though he has not been seen in public since June. Wang will conduct the traditional foreign minister’s news conference this week.
On people's minds in China: Jobs and support for families
As China struggles with high unemployment and other economic issues, job-related proposals at this year's legislative sessions are drawing special attention on Chinese social media.
One delegate to the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, a top advisory body, is urging officials to address the perception that companies are reluctant to hire people 35 and older, a phenomenon referred to in China as "the curse of 35." A topic about the delegate's proposal has garnered more than 63 million views on Weibo, a popular Chinese social media platform.
Another topic touching on the intense competition for jobs among university graduates drew more than 22 million views.
The country’s record low birthrate also propelled several proposals about increasing parental support and easing pressure for families with children, but it met with tepid reaction on social media, with one comment reading, “It’s a bit late now.” Another user wrote, “The future is uncertain, I don’t want to pressure myself so much.”
No change in policy on Hong Kong and Taiwan
Regarding the politically sensitive issues of Taiwan and Hong Kong, Li did not signal much of a shift in China’s policy. Li said the Chinese territory of Hong Kong will remain committed to “law-based governance” administered by “patriots” (in other words, officials loyal to Beijing).
On Taiwan, a self-ruling island democracy that Beijing claims as its territory, Li repeated China’s official stance on “reunification” (it will happen), “separatist activities” (China is opposed) and “external interference” (that’s a standard reference to U.S. support for Taiwan, including arms sales).
It was at the 2020 meeting of the National People’s Congress that China announced the sweeping Hong Kong national security law with no warning. The law was adopted within a month to end democratic protests in the city, a former British colony that returned to Chinese sovereignty in 1997. The subsequent crackdown on dissent has all but wiped out Hong Kong’s democratic opposition and prompted some foreign companies to shift away from the international financial hub.
Hong Kong is now preparing to enact its own local national security law, known as Article 23, as required under the city’s mini-constitution. Critics say the legislation is likely to further undermine Hong Kong’s civil liberties, which it was guaranteed would be preserved for the first 50 years of Chinese rule.
Li wraps up government work report
Delegates are filing out of the auditorium after Li finished delivering the government work report, a bit more than an hour after he began speaking.
Among the highlights:
- China is aiming for economic growth of about 5% in 2024, in line with last year's target, although it could be harder to reach amid economic headwinds and structural imbalances.
- Officials hope to create more than 12 million new urban jobs and keep the urban unemployment rate around 5.5%.
- The government is targeting an increase of about 3% in the consumer price index.
- China is intensifying efforts to attract foreign investment, including abolishing all market restrictions on investment in manufacturing and loosening restrictions on investment in market access restrictions in service sectors such as telecommunications and health care.
One bright spot for China’s economy: Electric vehicles
Li also talked about “keeping China’s advantage” when it comes to electric vehicles. In recent years, Chinese-made EVs have powered ahead of U.S. and other foreign competitors here — with help from heavy government subsidies — and now companies like BYD are going global.
The rapid growth and production of Chinese EVs poses a worry for U.S. regulators, however. The Commerce Department recently announced an investigation into the software that powers Chinese-made electric vehicles over concerns that China could collect data on U.S. motorists.
An effort to boost consumption
Li says China will launch a yearlong program to increase consumption. Boosting domestic demand is crucial for China's effort to shift its economy away from the real estate sector, which is mired in crisis and makes up a third or more of GDP.
Li acknowledges 'difficulties and challenges'
Li said China's economy was on an upward trajectory, with its 5.2% growth rate one of the highest among the world's major economies. But he also said the government was "keenly aware of the difficulties and challenges we face."
"The complexity, severity and uncertainty of the external environment are increasing," he said. "The foundation for the sustained and positive recovery of the country's economy is not yet solid, with insufficient effective demand and weak social expectations."
"We must face these problems and challenges directly," he said.
China aims for 5% growth in 2024
China is aiming for economic growth of about 5% in 2024, Li said while delivering the government's annual work report. That is about the same as the 5.2% gross domestic product growth China reported last year.
A focus on economic stimulus
One thing observers around the world will be watching is what measures the Chinese government will announce to support the economy, which is experiencing a slowdown. Foreign investors and others have called for fiscal stimulus to boost an economy weighed down by a real estate crisis, high unemployment, deflation, sluggish consumption and a decline in exports and foreign investment amid geopolitical tensions.