Crowded primary fields in Virginia likely mean low win thresholds
What’s one thing to expect tonight? That the winner in the crowded Democratic primaries in Virginia’s 7th and 10th districts could finish with a relatively low share of the vote.
While Georgia is holding two GOP primary runoffs today because no candidate won the majority of the vote in the first round, Virginia has no runoff provisions in its primaries. Like most states, it practices what’s known as “first-past-the-post voting,” a fancy way to say: Whoever finishes with the most votes wins, no matter what.
For example: In 2022, a divided field in the GOP primary for the 7th District meant that the winner there, Yesli Vega, finished with less than 29% of the vote.
Primaries are generally low-turnout events, so a relatively small portion of the electorate will have a major impact on who makes it on the ballot in November.
Polls close in Virginia and Georgia
Polls have now closed in Virginia and Georgia.
In Virginia, the top race to watch is in the sprawling 5th District, where Good is facing a primary challenger backed by Trump and McCarthy. Tuesday's primaries will also set the matchups in the state's Senate race and a handful of competitive House contests.
In Georgia, we're watching two House GOP primary runoffs, including one featuring a Jan. 6 rioter.
Read more about the key races to watch in tonight's primaries.
Ad spending has topped $9 million in the Democratic primary in Virginia's 10th District
The most expensive primary on the ballot tonight, at least in terms of ad spending, is in Virginia’s 10th District. A crowded field of Democrats are looking to replace Rep. Jennifer Wexton, who is retiring for health reasons.
More than half of the $9 million that’s been spent on the airwaves in this primary has been to boost state Del. Dan Helmer — almost $4.2 million from the cryptocurrency super PAC Protect Progress, $1.7 million from Helmer’s campaign and $1.4 million from VoteVets, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact.
State Sen. Suhas Subramanyam, who is backed by Wexton, is the next largest spender on the airwaves at $700,000.
The candidate with the most money doesn’t always win, but it can be a major advantage, especially in an expensive media market like Washington D.C., and when running in a crowded field.
Trump punches back at Biden over 2017 tax cuts, vowing to make them 'permanent'
During today's rally in Racine, Trump criticized Democrats over plans to allow components of his 2017 tax cuts that benefit wealthier Americans to expire next year.
"We will make the Trump tax cuts permanent and reduce taxes even more for working families and small businesses," Trump claimed.
The comments come after the former president wrote in a Truth Social post earlier today that business executive and shareholder representatives who don't support him should be "fired for incompetence," touting his support for corporate tax cuts.
How the anti-McCarthy Republicans have fared so far
Good's primary might be McCarthy's best shot at defeating one of the eight House Republicans who voted to oust him late last year.
Here's where the "vacate eight," as Good dubbed them at a Friday campaign event, stand as of Tuesday.
Leaving Congress: Colorado Rep. Ken Buck resigned back in March and Montana Rep. Matt Rosendale is not running for re-election.
No primary challengers: Tennessee Rep. Tim Burchett and Arizona Rep. Andy Biggs did not draw primary challengers, so both will officially secure the GOP nominations in their primaries later this summer.
Won primary: South Carolina Rep. Nancy Mace defeated a McCarthy-backed challenger last week.
Primary fights to come: After Good's race on Tuesday, Arizona Rep. Eli Crane and Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz will be the next to face primary challengers. Crane is facing former Yavapai County Supervisor Jack Smith on July 30, while Gaetz is facing Navy veteran Aaron Dimmock on Aug. 20.
Good's primary divides the House GOP conference
It's pretty rare to sitting members of Congress endorse primary challengers looking to oust their own colleagues, but that's played out in Good's primary.
Ohio Rep. Warren Davidson, a member of Good's Freedom Caucus, endorsed McGuire over the weekend, an unusual splinter in the group.
McGuire has also won support from a range of House Republicans, from Georgia's Marjorie Taylor Greene to Nebraska's Don Bacon.
Oklahoma GOP Sen. Markwayne Mullin, Wisconsin Rep. Derrick Van Orden, Georgia Rep. Austin Scott and Montana Rep. Ryan Zinke have donated to McGuire through their own campaigns or leadership PACs, along with Greene and Bacon.
Good boasts support on his campaign website from three Republican senators, including Kentucky's Rand Paul, Utah's Mike Lee and Florida's Rick Scott, as well as 15 members of of the House, including several members of the Freedom Caucus.
Three of Good's House colleagues — Texas' Chip Roy, Georgia' Andrew Clyde and Arizona's Andy Biggs — joined Good on the campaign trail on Friday.
Trump rips Biden's immigration executive action as 'lawless'
Trump harshly criticized Biden's executive action to shield undocumented spouses of U.S. citizens from deportation, calling it "lawless" and "unconstitutional amnesty."
The former president said Biden "is sending a message to the world that he rewards illegal entry" during a rally in Racine, Wisconsin.
Virginia's 2nd District provides a classic GOP establishment vs. insurgent battle
The establishment v. insurgent dynamic in the GOP primary in Virginia's 2nd District is worth keeping an eye on.
Two special forces veterans — former Green Beret Derrick Anderson and former Navy SEAL Cameron Hamilton — are squaring off for the Republican nomination. Anderson is backed by Speaker Mike Johnson, as well as by groups with ties to McCarthy and GOP megadonors.
Hamilton is supported by a super PAC affiliated with Kentucky GOP Sen. Rand Paul, a key figure in the anti-establishment wing of the GOP, and other like-minded Republicans.
It’s a dynamic that used to dominate in Republican primaries, but a one that’s gotten messier in recent years with Trump’s influence at times creating strange bedfellows. But since Trump hasn’t weighed in here, we’re seeing a purer distillation of these battle lines.
New Biden policy shields undocumented spouses of U.S. citizens from deportation
Biden is taking executive action to protect undocumented spouses of American citizens — a move that would shield about 500,000 immigrants from deportation.
The White House announced the election-year policy Tuesday, framing it as “new action to keep families together.”
The new policy will allow non-citizens who have been in the country for at least 10 years and are married to a U.S. citizen, and their children, to apply for permanent residence without leaving the country.
During a ceremony at the White House, Biden called the steps as a “common-sense fix” to a system that is “cumbersome, risky and separates families.”
He said the order would go into effect this summer and stressed that it would not benefit people who recently came into the country. Instead, it would help people who are “paying taxes and contributing to our country” and their family members.
Republicans to pick candidate to take on Sen. Tim Kaine
A long list of Republicans are lining up to take on Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine in November, including the Trump-endorsed Hung Cao, a Navy veteran who is focusing much of his campaign on the topic of border security.
"What is happening at our southern border with Mexico is an invasion,” Cao writes on his campaign website. “As Senator, I will stop it. We will build the wall, we will secure the border through advanced technology, we will support the Border Patrol and border states, and we will repel this invasion.”
Whoever wins the GOP primary for Senate in Virginia will have an uphill battle this November. The last Republican to hold a US Senate seat in Virginia was the late John Warner — who was last re-elected 22 years ago.
Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who recently met with Trump in northern Virginia, is staying out of his party’s primaries — avoiding any statewide endorsements until the nominees are known.