We're probably closer to the beginning of this trade war than we are to the end of it, whether President Trump takes a more nuanced approach to his tariffs or makes a big, simple move.

That's because of the resulting negotiation and retaliation, with other countries firing back. An all-out trade war between America and its allies could mean recessions for everybody. After a while, it could become a loop of retaliation, and it could just go on from there.

That would hurt U.S. producers and consumers, as well.

Most people might know the notorious Hawley-Smoot tariff best from a scene in "Ferris Bueller’s Day Off," where a teacher attempts to explain the 1930 bill to a classroom of bored high school students.

“Did it work? Anyone?... Anyone know the effects?” the teacher asked. “It did not work, and the United States sank deeper into the Great Depression.”

The Senate’s webpage about the famous tariff references the scene to explain how the bill was “among the most catastrophic acts in congressional history.”

Economists say that history is pretty correct. In an attempt to collect more revenue for the government, the government started a trade war, said Maurice Obstfeld, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

“At the time, it was a huge shock to the system and led to a very destructive trade war between the U.S. and its trading partners, which helped deepen the Great Depression,” Obstfeld told NBC News in October. Since then, the U.S. has mostly promoted cooperative trade relations and largely strayed from tariffs and isolationist policy. That is, until Donald Trump’s first term in 2018, when he implemented tariffs on China and steel and aluminum.

Trump is scheduled to announce reciprocal tariffs at 4 p.m. ET today in the Rose Garden. That also happens to be when major stock markets close in the U.S.

Some economists surmise that might be because the administration fears investors’ negative reactions to tariff news.

“Tariffs are the centerpiece of the Trump administration’s economic program and they are so nervous about its market impact, they have to announce it after the markets have closed,” Lawrence Summers, an economist at Harvard University who has served as Treasury secretary and director of the National Economic Council, told Bloomberg TV. “It seems a bizarre strategy.”

Tariff uncertainty has rocked investor confidence. Markets took a dive in the first quarter of 2025, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq facing their worst three-month losses since 2022. On Sunday, Goldman Sachs raised its recession and inflation forecast and lowered its GDP outlook.

“We continue to believe the risk from April 2 tariffs is greater than many market participants have previously assumed,” the firm said.

Democrats are lining up to oppose Trump's tariffs.

In an afternoon press conference, Sens. Chuck Schumer (N.Y.), Tim Kaine (Va.), Pete Welch (Vt.) and Angela Alsobrooks (Md.) argued the tariffs would harm American families and businesses.

Trump, Schumer said, wants to spark "an absurd, crazy, chaotic trade war" to raise revenues that would subsequently offset tax cuts Schumer said would primarily benefit billionaires.

"What kind of bubble is this man and his billionaire cohorts in?" Schumer said.

Kaine has introduced a bill to oppose across-the-board tariffs on Canada — and has received support for it from some moderate Republicans. However, it is unlikely to come up in the House, which has moved to block the ability of Congress to force a floor vote on the national emergency Trump has invoked to impose the Canadian duties.

Other Democrats weighed in today. Rep. Robert Garcia, D-Calif., called the tariffs "madness" in a post on X.

“In Congress, and as Mayor of Long Beach, I’ve seen firsthand how his senseless and unstable tariffs throw our trade and shipping infrastructures, like the Port of Long Beach, into chaos,” he wrote.

Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff policy has created panic for smaller businesses grappling with the likelihood of added operational costs and potential supply chain bottlenecks.

“I’m going to run out of appliances,” said Robin Liss, founder of kitchen gadget company Suvie, ahead of her two-week trip to Taiwan and Vietnam to work out a new business plan. “I’ve got to figure this out.”

Trump slapped additional tariffs on China and is threatening to strain America’s relationships with other longtime trading partners.

Read the full CNBC story here.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s 25% automobile tariffs are due to take effect at 12:01 a.m. ET on Thursday, according to a post in the Federal Register.

Trump’s 25% tariffs on auto parts are due to take effect no later than May 3, according to the Federal Register.

Ahead of Trump's tariffs announcement, Wall Street traders are reducing the odds that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in June — a sign they believe price growth could accelerate.

The probability that the Fed will hold its key federal funds rate at its current target range of 4.25% to 4.5% through its June meeting has now climbed to 35%, up from 24% just yesterday and 19% a month ago.

In other words, the traders now believe the Fed is more likely to keep lending activity at bay for longer, in order to contain inflation, by keeping borrowing rates higher.

However, is not clear whether the inflation concerns are in response to the tariffs themselves, which by definition will cause prices for goods to increase; or because the traders now believe the impact from the tariffs will not be as severe as feared, something that would cause economic activity to pick up and also put upward pressure prices.

Voters in Waunakee, Wisconsin, had tariffs top-of-mind on Tuesday as they lined up for the state’s Supreme Court election.

The race drew national attention as an early test of Donald Trump’s policy, which has prominently featured tariffs. Susan Crawford, who was backed by Democrats in the technically nonpartisan election, won with 55% of the vote.

Waunakee residents were conflicted about what tariffs would mean for American-made goods, but many admitted it could hit their wallets. Economists say that’s a justified concern, since tariff costs are generally passed along to consumers. Voter Lynn Cook said she just bought a new car for her family because she worried tariffs would make it more expensive.

“We were thinking of all the tariffs and everything, and how everything was going to go up,” she said.

Eric Bundy, who voted for Brad Schimel, the more conservative candidate, grew up in Pennsylvania and attributes factory closures there to free trade agreements. He’s willing to take a bit of a financial hit in the short term if it means bringing jobs back.

“I’m optimistic and I’m hopeful, he said, adding: “Yes, I will accept some, but obviously we all have our limits when it comes to our pocketbook.”

Others weren’t so sure the trade-off was worth it.

“I don’t know if the good is outweighing the harm that is being done,” said voter Andrew Dodge, who works in education. “I think we’re isolating ourselves as a country and not in a good way.”

The Trump administration is imposing 25% tariffs on beer and empty aluminum cans, according to a notice published today by the Commerce Department.

The notice said that the U.S. would begin collecting duties on the tariffs starting at 12:01 a.m. on Friday.

The move is part of a modification made to previously imposed tariffs by the Trump administration on aluminum imports.