NBC’s Jessica Taylor: As both parties are frantically trying to frame a looming and likely government shutdown as hurting the other side, a new GOP poll released this morning argues that continuing to press for a delay of the Affordable Care Act is a winning message for their party. A one-year delay of Obamacare implementation, set to take effect Tuesday, polls well for Republicans in House battleground districts. But if it’s a battle between passing a clean funding bill or negotiating over health care, Republicans trail Democrats in crucial House swing districts next fall.
More: According to a battleground survey of 18 congressional districts conducted for the conservative American Action Forum by Republican pollster On Message Inc., health care reform and insurance exchanges set to go into effect Tuesday, October 1, is still opposed by 57% of voters across the districts, including 60% of independent voters. In swing districts, defined as those that have a PVI of D+1 to R+1, half say they oppose the law, and in Republican-held Democratic leaning districts (those represented by a GOP member where Romney won less than 47% in 2012), 54% opposed it. In conservative districts with a PVI of R+6 to R+10, opposition to Obamacare unsurprisingly reaches 66%. But the group's findings, as they support a delay in healthcare implementation through wagering it on a continuing resolution to fund the government, show that 55% of those surveyed say they favor GOP efforts to delay the individual mandate through the CR. Fifty-six percent of independent voters say they support the strategy, with 31% opposing it. In swing districts, 52% favor delaying the mandate through via the CR, and in GOP-held Democratic districts, it’s a similar 51% support. In conservative districts, 62% favor it.
New York Times: " The Senate is expected to reject decisively a House bill that would delay the full effect of President Obama’s health care law as a condition for keeping the government running past Monday, as Senator Harry Reid, the Democratic majority leader, expressed confidence that he had public opinion on his side. Angering Republicans who lead the House, Mr. Reid kept the Senate shuttered on Sunday, in a calculated move to stall action on the House measure until Monday afternoon, just hours before the government’s spending authority runs out at midnight."
Washington Post: "Senators are not due at the Capitol until lunchtime Monday, when Reid will move to table the House amendments. That exercise requires a simple majority and can be accomplished solely with Democratic votes. By midafternoon, House GOP leaders are likely to again be facing a decision about how to handle the simple six-week government funding bill the Senate approved last week."
Politico: "It’s a pivotal moment for Boehner, perhaps the biggest crisis of his speakership, and he’s heading into it with a weak hand. The best Boehner can hope for is a draw. At worst, he could be endangering his troubled 17-seat majority as well as his own hold on the speaker’s gavel....Boehner, who also faces in coming weeks an even more daunting battle with Obama and Reid over raising the $16.7 trillion debt ceiling, may need a shutdown now in order to reassert control over his members and cool their passion for a winner-takes-all showdown with Democrats."
Roll Call: "Senate Democrats have no appetite for entertaining a yearlong delay of Obamacare, but what about repealing the medical device tax? Senate Majority Whip Richard J. Durbin said Sunday that also looks to be a non-starter, at least in the form sent over by the House in the middle of the night."
Wall Street Journal: "Each is the architect of his party's budget priorities, yet both President Barack Obama and Republican Rep. Paul Ryan have largely removed themselves from talks in Washington's latest standoff for reasons that help explain why the country has moved to the brink of a government shutdown. The president and Mr. Ryan crafted the competing budget blueprints that Democrats and Republicans put before voters in 2012 elections. If only to replay the debates of that election, they would seem obvious choices to broker a way out of the impasse.For the moment, though, beyond public statements, Mr. Obama has played no inside role in the unfolding drama. And Mr. Ryan has been almost entirely silent. New players have emerged to fill the vacuum, notably Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and others in the GOP who want to undo the president's health-care law."
NBC's Carrie Dann: "If past is prologue, a looming government shutdown could actually cost U.S. taxpayers money. A lot of money. According to the Office of Management and Budget, the two shutdowns in 1995 and 1996 cost taxpayers $1.4 billion combined. Adjust for inflation and you've got $2 billion in today’s dollars. Those two shutdowns lasted a total of 27 days, but there’s no telling how long the government could be shuttered this time around if Congress fails to act by Monday at midnight. Even shorter shutdowns have proven successful at draining government funds."
Washington Post: "A prolonged government shutdown — followed by a potential default on the federal debt — would have economic ripple effects far beyond Washington, upending financial markets, sending the unemployment rate higher and slowing already tepid growth, according to a wide range of economists. A shutdown of a few days might do little damage, but economists, lawmakers and analysts are increasingly bracing for a shutdown that could last a week or more, given the distance between Republicans and Democrats. Such an outcome would suck money out of the economy and spread anxiety among consumers and businesses in a way that is likely to hold back economic activity."
Los Angeles Times: "The last week of standoffs and stalemates in Washington won't help Congress' dismal approval ratings. And the likelihood that most government programs will begin shutting down Tuesday already has started disrupting the lives of millions of federal government workers, contractors and their families. But for one group — fundraisers who collect cash for members of Congress and those hoping to join the club — the shutdown threat is a windfall."