After House Republicans have been facing competitive primaries for weeks, it’s now a Democrat who could be in trouble Tuesday.
The primary in New York’s 16th District has attracted the most ad spending ever for a House primary, with Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman — a member of the progressive "squad" and a fierce Israel critic — facing scores of attacks.
The historic spending, according to the ad tracking firm AdImpact, includes $14.8 million in ads from United Democracy Project, a super PAC tied to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.
Pro-Israel groups are backing Bowman’s opponent, Westchester County Executive George Latimer, a centrist who has served in local politics for decades and is an unabashed supporter of Israel.
And while voters in the district said they are focused on other issues, like jobs and the environment, the unprecedented spending has made the primary a closely watched proxy fight in Democrats’ broader intraparty battle that has played out over the Israel-Hamas war this election cycle.
The Bowman-Latimer brawl has attracted other prominent names, as well. Hillary Clinton, a Westchester County resident, endorsed Latimer, as did former Rep. Mondaire Jones, D-N.Y., a onetime Bowman ally and fellow Congressional Black Caucus member who has since blasted Bowman’s criticism of Israel.
Jones, whose move infuriated progressives, is expected to win the Democratic nomination in a neighboring swing district for the chance to take on freshman GOP Rep. Mike Lawler in the fall. New York’s primaries will also set the matchups in several competitive districts that will be key to the fight for the House.
Meanwhile, Bowman brought in progressive reinforcements over the weekend. On Friday, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., campaigned with Bowman in south Westchester County, and Sanders and neighboring Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., stumped with Bowman in the Bronx on Saturday.
“They are spending more money than has ever been spent in American history,” Bowman said at the rally with Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez. “But they are the money. We are the mighty. They are the money; we are the many. And they will not stop us. No matter what. We will not be stopped.”
In addition to New York, Utah and Colorado will also hold primaries Tuesday, and South Carolina will hold primary runoffs.
Colorado shuffle
GOP Rep. Ken Buck’s decision to resign in March has shaken up this year's Colorado’s primaries. Voters in Buck’s deep-red 4th District will also pick his replacement Tuesday in a special election.
Republican Greg Lopez, a former state director for the Small Business Administration and a former mayor of Parker, is favored to win the special election in the 4th District, given the district’s Republican lean. Former President Donald Trump won by 19 points in 2020, according to calculations from Daily Kos Elections.
Lopez has run for office multiple times, including having unsuccessfully run for governor in 2022 and 2018. He is a staunch conservative and has taken some far-right positions, including not supporting any exceptions to a ban on abortions and casting doubt on the 2020 election results.
Lopez isn’t running for a full term, so he would serve only about six months if he wins Tuesday. He is competing against Democrat Trisha Calvarese, a speechwriter.
There’s also a primary Tuesday to pick nominees for this fall’s general election in the 4th District. GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert decided to switch districts and run for the seat Buck is vacating, instead of seeking re-election in the 3rd District, which she barely won in 2022. Boebert, who has Trump’s endorsement, is expected to secure the GOP nomination Tuesday.
Boebert’s move has also led to a crowded GOP primary in the more competitive 3rd District, which Trump won by 9 points in 2020. The race has been the target of some last-minute spending by the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with House GOP leadership, against one of the Republican candidates.
The Congressional Leadership Fund launched a TV ad targeting former state Rep. Ron Hanks after Democrats appeared to be meddling in the primary to boost him, according to The Colorado Sun, possibly betting that he could be easier to beat in November. Hanks has denied the 2020 election results, and he marched to the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. He also ran unsuccessfully in the GOP Senate primary in 2022.
Democrat Adam Frisch, the former Aspen City Council member who nearly defeated Boebert, cleared the primary field on his side of the aisle. Frisch also appears to be putting his finger on the scale in the GOP primary by launching a TV ad targeting attorney Jeff Hurd, one of the top GOP candidates. The spot could damage Hurd’s standing among conservative voters by suggesting that Hurd’s positions on abortion and Trump are unclear; Hanks has been running as an unapologetic conservative on those issues.
Another House Republican exit has shaken up the GOP primary in the deep-red 5th District, where Rep. Doug Lamborn is retiring. Trump has endorsed state GOP Chairman Dave Williams, while House Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana and other congressional Republicans have endorsed Jeff Crank, a political consultant and former radio host.
More Trump endorsement tests
Utah Republicans are set to effectively choose who will replace retiring GOP Sen. Mitt Romney, one of the party’s biggest Trump critics, next year.
Trump is backing Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs, who also won the backing of Utah Republicans at their April convention. Despite Trump's endorsement, the race is hard-fought among four well-funded candidates. Former Utah House Speaker Brad Wilson has been the top fundraiser, thanks in part to his lending his campaign $3 million.
But Rep. John Curtis has been boosted by a flurry of outside ad spending, more than $6.6 million, by a group called Conservative Values for Utah and by another, a pro-cryptocurrency super PAC called Defend American Jobs that has been active in other GOP primary races across the country. The ads have largely been a mix of spots highlighting Curtis and others that criticize Staggs, who has been boosted by $700,000 in ad spending from Protect Freedom PAC, a group aligned with Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky. Jason Walton, a businessman who lent his campaign $2.5 million, is also running.
The winner of the GOP primary will face Democrat Caroline Gleich in the fall and becomes the odds-on favorite to replace Romney in the red state.
Curtis’ decision to run for the Senate opened up a primary in the 3rd District. Utah County entrepreneur Case Lawrence and Roosevelt Mayor J.R. Bird are the top fundraisers in the race, which also includes state Sen. Mike Kennedy, state Auditor John Dougall and former state GOP chairman Stewart Peay.
Trump picks are also running in two other House races — one in a Colorado swing seat and one in a Republican stronghold in South Carolina.
Trump supports state Rep. Gabe Evans, who is running against former state Rep. Janak Joshi in Colorado’s competitive 8th District, where Republicans are looking to dethrone freshman Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo. She won her first term in 2022 by just 1 percentage point.
And in South Carolina’s 3rd District runoff, Trump is behind pastor Mark Burns, who hopes to replace the retiring Rep. Jeff Duncan. Burns and nurse Sheri Biggs moved on to a runoff after the state’s congressional primary this month when no candidate won a majority of the vote.
