Highlights from the 2024 campaign trail:
- Former President Donald Trump has a dominant lead in the final NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll before Monday's caucuses, with former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley slightly ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in a tight race for second.
- Trump hit out at businessman Vivek Ramaswamy on social media, stemming from Ramaswamy's recent insistence that support for Trump would be wasted because "the system" is lined up against him.
- Republican presidential hopefuls packed the day full of campaign events in Iowa, but they are still contending with low temperatures, wind and the heavy snow that forced the cancellation of some events Friday.
- The National Weather Service said Des Moines, Iowa, and surrounding areas remain under a winter weather advisory until midnight — and a wind chill warning through Monday's caucuses.
- Caucusgoers hunkering down at home will see more than $2.6 million in GOP TV ads through Jan. 15, according to AdImpact. Haley’s super PAC is spending the most, followed by one of DeSantis’ super PACs.
Trump heads into caucuses with dominant lead in final Iowa poll
Boosted by his standing with evangelical Christians, first-time caucusgoers and registered Republicans, Trump holds a nearly 30-point lead in the final NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll before Monday’s GOP caucuses.
The poll also finds Trump enjoying the backing of the most enthusiastic and committed likely caucusgoers, which could be crucial as the state grapples with subzero temperatures and even colder wind chills on caucus night.
The topline results: Trump at 48%, Haley at 20%, DeSantis at 16% and Ramaswamy at 8%.
Haley's campaign reacts: "The DMR poll shows the Haley momentum continues to grow, but we take nothing for granted. Despite the cold weather, on Monday, Iowans will have the first chance in the nation to voice their desire for a new generation of conservative leadership with Nikki Haley, instead of more of the same with Donald Trump."
Trump spoke out as well: "Our grassroots supporters have put us in position to win, and now we have to show up to caucus for President Trump on Monday and get the job done. We have to show up."
DeSantis' campaign wrote in a "messaging guidance" memo that "winning campaigns don't rely on public data," though it didn't mention any private data, either. The campaign also noted that turnout for Monday's caucuses is in flux in the cold weather.
Ramaswamy reacts to Trump attacks by claiming momentum
Ramaswamy declined to attack back when asked about Trump's social media brushback of him tonight, telling NBC News in Cherokee, Iowa, that he thinks the former president is going after him because of his performance.
“I think it’s amicable now,” said Ramaswamy of him and Trump’s relationship despite the frosty Truth Social post. “The reality is I am surging late on the ground. There’s no secret there."
Asked explicitly if he believes Trump sees him as a threat, Ramaswamy hedged a bit. “I can’t speak for them. But I do think that anybody who’s paying attention to this race sees exactly what’s happening on the ground and you’d have to have your head in the sand not to see it.”
And asked if he regretted making the t-shirts that said “Save Trump, vote Vivek,” sparking the Trump campaign's reaction this evening, Ramaswamy claimed to be unfazed.
“No. I stand by it. I think that the reality is I am worried for this country. I am worried for Trump. I’m worried for the future of our constitutional republic.”
Trump jabs at Haley, New York judge
Trump sat down with Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird for a livestream tonight, jabbing at Haley (and barely mentioning DeSantis) while also going after the judge in the E. Jean Carroll case, who denied a request to delay for the funeral of Melania Trump's mother.
The former president spoke about Haley's time in his administration: "She was okay, but she’s not strong enough to be president. I know her very well."
Trump's campaign cancelled a number of his in-person events this weekend amid the stormy weather in Iowa. He only has one rally remaining on his schedule before Monday's caucuses.
Trump campaign's N.H. co-chair loses vote for RNC position
Elizabeth Girard, a co-chair of Trump's campaign in New Hampshire, lost a vote today for a position as the state's Republican National Committeewoman.
Mary Jane Beauregard defeated Girard by a 212-141 vote. Each state Republican Party sends a male and female committee member to the RNC along with the state party chair.
A DeSantis supporter and a Trump supporter prep caucus speeches
One unique aspect of the Iowa caucuses will come before any ballots are cast, when supporters are invited to address caucusgoers and make their pitches for their preferred candidates.
Campaigns have worked to organize speakers at many of the more than 1,600 precincts. And they can change some minds.
"There’s still some people, in spite of all the mailers, in spite of all the commercials, in spite of all the talk, they’re not gonna make up their mind until Monday night," said Gary Leffler, 62, who will serve as a Trump campaign captain for his precinct in West Des Moines.
Leffler said he isn't going to use the Trump campaign talking points. Instead he's centering his pitch on returning to the economic conditions and lower prices of the Trump era.
"I'm not big on letting the campaigns having to tell me what to say. I want to be able to — because to me, I can relate better to people by telling the story like [that] my kids were able to afford a home," Leffler said at Trump’s Iowa campaign headquarters Saturday afternoon.
Over at the headquarters for Never Back Down, a super PAC backing DeSantis, Gordon Smith was among the DeSantis supporters who showed up to see the Florida governor address the group. Smith, 88, said he received a call from Never Back Down and was asked to speak in support of DeSantis at his precinct in Beaverdale. He agreed to do it, joking it was "much to my wife's chagrin."
Smith said he did receive some talking points, but he also isn't going to use them.
"I'm just going to say why I believe he's right," Smith said, noting he supports DeSantis because of his background in the military. Smith has already started writing his speech, but said so far it will "probably take up to about eight hours."
"So my wife says it's got to be five minutes," Smith said with a laugh.
DeSantis' mom hits the trail in a rare bit of public politicking
DeSantis’ mom is on the campaign trail, and that’s not the norm.
Former Rep. Keith Rothfus, R-Pa., posted on social media that he was with DeSantis’ mother, Karen, going door to door in a frigid Iowa two days before the Iowa caucuses.
“Walking precincts in sub-0 windchills w/@RonDeSantis’ mom in #Iowa,” Rothfus posted on X, formerly known as Twitter. “An original #MamasforDeSantis, she’s showing #Courage being out in this cold.”
It’s a rare occurrence for DeSantis’ immediate family on the campaign trail. His parents have been out of the spotlight during DeSantis' runs for Florida governor and most of his presidential campaign, and he has rarely mentioned them since winning the governorship in 2018.
DeSantis’ father, also named Ron, did talk to a New Yorker reporter who unexpectedly showed up at his door for a profile on DeSantis in 2022.
Trump brushes back Ramaswamy
The Trump campaign took perhaps its most direct shot at Ramaswamy yet, after Ramaswamy posted a picture on social media with supporters wearing shirts that said "Save Trump, vote Vivek."
The shirts echo Ramaswamy's recent patter on the campaign trail, where he has professed his support for Trump but told Iowans not to waste their caucus support on him because "the system" will not let Trump be president again.
Trump senior adviser Chris LaCivita was not amused, calling Ramaswamy "FAKE" in a post on X and saying "Trump doesn't need 'saving.'"
The former president soon weighed in on Truth Social: "Vivek started his campaign as a great supporter, 'the best President in generations,' etc. Unfortunately, now all he does is disguise his support in the form of deceitful campaign tricks. Very sly, but a vote for Vivek is a vote for the 'other side' — don’t get duped by this. Vote for 'TRUMP,' don’t waste your vote!"
Many of Ramaswamy's supporters are also hardcore Trump people. Even if they aren’t going to vote for Ramaswamy, they still really admire him and want him as Trump's VP pick — or to run in 2028 after Trump. Now with Trump taking a direct jab, this is going to be crushing for him.
A source familiar with the Trump campaign said one word to me when I asked for a response about Ramaswamy's new t-shirts: "Fraud."
Iowans are contending with not just snow but high winds and low temperatures.
DeSantis ally makes the case against Trump and Haley
Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, took some direct shots at Trump and Haley this afternoon at an event in West Des Moines.
“The people of Iowa know that the road to the White House goes through this state,” Roy said at the event, held at the Iowa headquarters of Never Back Down, a DeSantis-aligned super PAC. “They know that you have to earn their vote. You can’t be anointed. You can’t assume it. You can’t not show up to the debate. You can’t cancel an event in Cass County.”
Trump, who has skipped all of the GOP presidential debates, postponed a Cass County event scheduled for this weekend and has largely scaled back his plans to campaign in the state before Monday’s caucuses.
“You can’t dismiss the people of Iowa as a certain former governor of South Carolina did when she said the New Hampshire will ‘correct’ Iowans,” Roy added, referencing Haley.
Roy wrapped his remarks with another pointed attack on Trump. “I’m tired of someone who got to Washington and on the first week of the job was more concerned about the crowd size [than he was] making sure Obamacare got repealed and replaced.”
Ramaswamy IDs potential D.C. allies, including Trump's latest endorser
Asked by an Iowan in Okoboji who his Capitol Hill allies would be on his mission to defeat the "deep state," Ramaswamy named three Republican senators, including Utah Sen. Mike Lee, who just endorsed Trump yesterday.
“Rand Paul doesn’t always have the exact same views as many of the traditional Republican wing,” Ramaswamy added. Paul recently posted a video to X complimenting Trump, DeSantis, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Ramaswamy before making clear he’s opposed to former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley.
Ramaswamy added: “People who are strong constitutionalists — I think that, you know, I think Ted Cruz is a constitutionalist,” saying he was in communication with some of these politicians. Ramaswamy also added that Cruz and Lee are on his shortlist for nominees for the Supreme Court.
Member of Congress rear-ended on way to Haley event in Iowa City
Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, R-Iowa, did not require medical attention after being rear-ended Saturday on her way to a Haley campaign event in snow-blanketed Iowa, her office confirmed.
Rep. Ashley Hinson, R-Iowa, revealed the mishap to the audience at the Haley rally in Iowa City.
"She actually got rear-ended by semi on the way here," Hinson said from the stage. "So, pray for her. She’s fine."
Miller-Meeks' chief of staff, Tyler Menzler, told NBC News in a statement that it was "a minor car accident" and the congresswoman "left the scene in a private vehicle upon being released by the Iowa State Patrol."
Miller-Meeks "wishes to commend the courtesy and professionalism of the Iowa State Patrol who were already present and the valiant efforts of the Iowa Department of Transportation and their snow plow drivers who are working to clear our roadways," Menzler said. "The congresswoman will return to assuming her duties on Monday."
Neither Hinson nor Miller-Meeks has endorsed a candidate in Monday's first-in-the-nation Republican presidential caucus. It is common for office-holders who have not made endorsements to attend rallies for various candidates prior to the caucus.
Trump volunteers hit the phones to boost turnout
Trump’s campaign volunteers braved the snow-covered roads Saturday to come to his Iowa headquarters in Urbandale and help the former president make his final push to turn out supporters.
Arizona Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake made an appearance and mingled with volunteers at Trump’s campaign headquarters here, where they phoned potential caucusgoers and volunteers assembled yard signs.
“My free time is Trump time,” said Mara Brown, a Trump campaign volunteer from Urbandale who is in her 60s.
Volunteers wearing white hats with “Trump Caucus Captain” embroidered in large gold letters were spotted throughout the room, signaling those who were tasked with turning out Trump supporters on Monday, some of whom will be addressing their precincts.
“Come hell or high water, they’re coming out,” one of those captains, Gary Leffler, 62, of West Des Moines, said of Trump’s supporters.
Fueled by more than a dozen boxes of Papa John’s pizza, volunteers phoned potential caucusgoers, reading from a script asking who they were supporting and if they knew their caucus location, as well as reminding caucusgoers to arrive before 7 p.m. local time.
Trump urges backers to turn out in tele-rally event
Trump focused on logistics during a tele-rally call with supporters Friday night, as his campaign moved in-person events into virtual events to accommodate the weather.
"I know it’s gonna be very cold, but I know you know how to handle the cold better than anybody," Trump said. "And the caucus locations are all indoors and any lines are going to move very quickly."
"We're looking to set records, and we think that frankly, the other teams aren't going to be as persistent in getting out as our team," Trump said.
Ramaswamy says he'd caucus for Trump if he wasn't running
Ramaswamy kicked off another day of Iowa campaigning in Spencer, where he called on Iowans to caucus for him despite noting, “If I weren’t in this race, I couldn’t imagine caucusing for anybody else other than Donald Trump.”
While Ramaswamy praised Trump, he also addressed points of contrast with him, at one point saying he was a part of the establishment. "The likes of John Bolton and Nikki Haley will not be my vice president and will not come anywhere near my administration," Ramaswamy said.
Michigan GOP chairmanship in flux ahead of election year
Michigan Republican Party Chair Kristina Karamo said Saturday that she received a vote of confidence to remain in her position amid an effort to oust her, but it's unclear who voted and what the next steps in the fight will be.
NBC News' Allan Smith and Henry J. Gomez reported on the situation yesterday:
"A large group of Michigan state GOP committee members voted last week to remove Kristina Karamo as chairwoman, asserting that she was leading the party toward bankruptcy and failing to live up to promises of transparency and reform. The party’s No. 2 official then declared herself acting chair. Karamo rejected the vote, arguing that the process was illegitimate and a violation of state party bylaws. Karamo has called her own meeting for Saturday."
Haley implores listeners to 'finally right the ship in America'
Campaigning in Cedar Falls, Iowa, this morning wearing a shirt that says "she who dares wins," Haley made an impassioned plea to her audience to "make history" on Monday — but not just by voting for a woman, she said.
"And I'm not talking about history of a female president," Haley said. "I'm talking about history saying we are going to finally right the ship in America. We're finally going to get it right."
Haley made only a brief mention of her competitors and not by name — just saying, "The fellas are scared."
DeSantis explains plans to challenge Trump and Haley in South Carolina
DeSantis explained to reporters outside one of his events why he's planning to travel first to South Carolina after Monday's caucuses instead of going straight to New Hampshire, the next primary state.
"We’re going to do an event in Greenville in the morning and then fly to New Hampshire that same day and do a televised town hall with CNN," DeSantis said, adding that he thinks Haley and Trump have weakness in the state.
"We have 74 endorsements from current and former state legislators. She’s got 14. I have way more than Donald Trump does as well. And so it’s like, wait a minute, she was governor for six years, and yet most of them side with me because they see me as representing the values of South Carolina," DeSantis said.
South Carolina's Republican primary is Feb. 24, just over a month after New Hampshire's Jan. 23 contest.
DeSantis: Fight the cold and 'I'll fight for you for the next eight years'
At his first stop of the day in Council Bluffs, Iowa, DeSantis promised to fight for Iowans if they fight the elements for him on Monday night.
Outside DeSantis' super PAC-sponsored event, the wind chill dropped to an arctic 30 degrees below zero, but DeSantis promised to press on campaigning: “I am not going to be canceling — if people are willing to come out and hear from me, I’m going to show up all the way until the end of this caucus,” he said.
“If you’re willing to go out there and you’re willing to brave the elements on a cold, windy, snowy January night for me and do that for a few hours, I’ll fight for you for the next eight years,” DeSantis told the crowd of about 70 at an event space in a residential neighborhood in Council Bluffs.
Haley's lone House endorser to campaign in Iowa
Haley’s campaign announced Rep. Ralph Norman, R-S.C., will campaign for her in Iowa ahead of Monday’s caucuses.
“Whether it’s taking on the big-spending establishment or defending the sanctity of human life, Nikki has always fought on the front lines of the important conservative battles,” Norman said in a campaign announcement. “I’m excited to come to Iowa and help her win every vote leading up to caucus day.”
Norman is Haley’s only congressional endorser. Trump has vacuumed up far more support than others from the House and Senate — and he is the only GOP presidential candidate to receive any congressional endorsements since June, according to NBC News' analysis.
DeSantis has been campaigning in recent days with GOP Reps. Chip Roy and Thomas Massie, two of his five congressional endorsers.
DeSantis celebrates campaign efforts with advisers and friends
DeSantis took advantage of yesterday's snow day to relax at the end of Friday with some of his closest advisers and friends, ahead of a final blitz of campaigning this weekend.
The Florida governor — joined by his wife, Casey, senior campaign staff, donors, volunteers and friends — gathered for a casual celebration at Bevy’s Tavern in the Des Moines suburbs to thank team members for their efforts before Monday night’s caucuses.
With just two days left until Iowans make their presidential preferences known, the governor has made nearly 170 stops across the state, with four more stops on his campaign schedule today. DeSantis will start his day today in the western reaches of the state, making stops in Council Bluffs and Atlantic, followed by a drop-in at the super PAC Never Back Down’s headquarters in West Des Moines. He’ll end the day with a town hall in Davenport, on the border with Illinois.
Democrats resume Iowa billboard campaign ahead of GOP caucuses
The Democratic National Committee is launching another billboard campaign across Iowa, attacking Republican presidential candidates for what it’s calling “extreme” policy positions as they barnstorm the state ahead of the Jan. 15 caucuses.
The billboards target former President Trump, Haley and DeSantis, who polling suggests are the top three contenders in the state. Messages on the billboards accuse the three candidates of supporting an “extreme MAGA agenda,” including national abortion bans, cuts to Social Security and Medicare and tax breaks for the wealthy.
“No matter who emerges from the flurry of chaos that has been the 2024 Republican primary, every single one of these MAGA extremists is running on a deeply unpopular agenda that would make any of them low-temp losers in the general election,” said DNC national press secretary Sarafina Chitika.
At least two of the billboards will specifically focus on Trump, seizing on his recent remark predicting the U.S. economy will crash and hoping it occurs “during this next 12 months.”
“Donald Trump said he ‘hopes’ the economy crashes,” one billboard reads. “Millions of jobs lost, retirement savings wiped out, businesses shuttered.”
The billboards are posted in Waterloo-Cedar Falls, Cedar Rapids, Council Bluffs, Dubuque, Davenport and Des Moines — all locations where the Republican candidates have announced events in the run-up to the caucuses. The advertisements will remain active until Jan. 16, the day after the election.
Haley and DeSantis super PACs, Trump campaign lead late Iowa advertising
Haley's super PAC, SFA Fund Inc., is set to spend the most money on TV ads in Iowa over the next three days, while Trump is spending the most of any candidate's campaign, according to AdImpact.
And DeSantis' two super PACs on the air, Fight Right and Good Fight, are spending more combined than Haley's group, though DeSantis' campaign itself is spending little. Because campaigns are guaranteed a lower advertising rate than outside groups, it is more efficient for campaigns to spend on TV, even though super PACs can raise more money from individual donors.
Caucusgoer intensity — and how excited they are to turn out amid severe winter weather — could play an important role in Monday's contest.
Haley hits Biden foreign policy, predicts strong Iowa showing
Haley appeared on Sean Hannity's Fox News program late Friday to hit President Joe Biden's handling of foreign policy.
"It is a constant topic of conversation that comes up with voters here in Iowa," Haley said. "We’ve also seen it New Hampshire, people are worried, they see those wars and they’re worried about what this means. We should always be focused on national security and prevention of war. That’s what Joe Biden’s missed."
Asked how she expects Monday's caucuses to go, Haley said, "It’s really cold, but we’re going to have a strong showing."