How the polling landscape has changed in the last two weeks: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, we report on how the polling landscape has changed since Vice President Kamala Harris took over as the Democratic presidential candidate. Plus, correspondent Yamiche Alcindor dives into both campaigns' race to define Kamala Harris on their own terms.

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The race is on to define Kamala Harris

By Yamiche Alcindor

Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign rallies are a clear change from those held by President Joe Biden, the man she is replacing at the top of the Democratic ticket. The soundtrack is Beyoncé’s “Freedom” and songs like the “Cupid Shuffle.” Megan Thee Stallion performs. They’re brat — or at least trying to be.

While the atmospherics are meant to bring some energy back to the Democratic Party, she has also introduced herself to the country as a prosecutor out to press the case against former President Donald Trump.

But the Trump campaign is rushing to define Harris differently.

“Weak, failed, too liberal,” Trump senior adviser Brian Hughes said. “The agenda that brought a border invasion when she was border czar.” 

Harris is an unprecedented presidential candidate, thrust into the top spot roughly 100 days before the election. She’s not the incumbent, and she didn’t have to go through a grueling primary process. Some voters are still learning the details of her biography: her background, policies she supported and how she’s different from Biden. 

And both sides are eager to make sure their image of Harris is the one that sticks with voters. 

This week, two ads went up that underscored the war to define Harris. The Trump team debuted an ad blaming her for what it characterized as deadly failures at the southern border. Harris, meanwhile, launched a $50 million preconvention ad buy, with its first spot making the case that she had a stellar career as a “fearless” prosecutor.

Read more on the race to define Harris →

By the numbers: How Kamala Harris has reshaped the 2024 race in two weeks

By Mark Murray

It’s been less than two weeks since Biden departed the 2024 contest, making way for Harris to lead the Democratic ticket.

And the poll numbers show how the race has been transformed, from an election Biden had been trailing after the debate to a political environment that has instantly improved for Democrats — though it still remains competitive and uncertain.

Let’s start with the national polls. In the surveys conducted after Biden’s dismal debate performance, Donald Trump enjoyed a clear head-to-head lead, with many of his advantages outside the margin of error.

Trump was ahead by 6 points in the New York Times/Siena College poll (among likely voters) and by another 6 points in the Wall Street Journal poll (among registered voters), while his advantage was 4 points in the national Morning Consult poll (registered voters) and 2 points in the Reuters/Ipsos poll (registered voters).

But after Biden withdrew from the race? Trump’s lead was cut down to 1 and 2 points, respectively, in the NYT/Siena and Wall Street Journal polls. And Harris took 1-point edges in the Morning Consult and Reuters/Ipsos polls.

All of these recent results are within the margin of error.

Then there’s the shift in the battleground states, with the most comprehensive picture coming from the Bloomberg News/Morning Consult polls.

Before Biden stepped down, Trump was ahead by 2 points in the combined seven battlegrounds, per the polling. And in the individual states, the former president held slight leads in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

Yet after the Democratic switch, Harris now has a 1-point advantage in the combined seven battlegrounds, and she holds a slight edge in Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin, as well as a larger advantage in Michigan (though that result appears to be an outlier compared to other recent Michigan polling).

An important reminder on this new Trump-versus-Harris polling: It reflects an incredibly competitive and close presidential contest. And in many ways, it looks similar to where the race was last fall.

But the polls have changed since Biden’s exit, and that’s striking because Harris’ numbers had been similar to Biden’s before the switch in candidates.

That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at [email protected]

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