What the Polls Say Today: Sunny Skies for Florida Republicans

Rubio seems to be rolling right along. Photo-Illustration: Intelligencer; Photos: Getty Images

Welcome to “What the Polls Say Today,” Intelligencer’s daily series breaking down the all the latest polling news on the 2022 midterms.

Thirteen days before Election Day, the overall midterms picture is looking up for Republicans. With early voting underway in a majority of states, it seems that a Republican wave of undetermined size is approaching, putting the Senate into play and very likely delivering the House to the GOP. But in weather and in politics, forecasts are often wrong and there are multiple unknown factors to take into account.

Here’s what the polls are telling us today:

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Not much sunshine for Florida Democrats

Back in August, a University of North Florida poll showed U.S. Representative Val Demings leading veteran Republican Senator Marco Rubio by four points (48-44). A new survey from the same pollster now shows Rubio blowing out to a 54-43 lead. This latest poll is a smaller sample likely voter survey with a higher margin of error, but it reinforces other recent polls showing Rubio with a solid lead (he’s up 7.5 percent in the RealClearPolitics polling averages, with 49.6 percent to Demings’s 42.2). A new Data for Progress survey shows Rubio leading by just about his polling average: 51-44.

UNF also shows the state’s Republican Governor Ron DeSantis leading Democrat Charlie Crist by an even larger 55-41 margin, giving DeSantis an 11-point lead and over 50 percent in the RCP averages. Similarly, a new Data for Progress survey has DeSantis ahead 54-42.

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Senator Blumenthal is in no danger

Some Republican fantasists thought the GOP wave might be high enough to threaten to engulf blue-state Democratic incumbents like Connecticut Senator Richard Blumenthal, whose Republican opponent, Leora Levy, did get within five points in a mid-October poll from Fabrizio. But now Quinnipiac is out with a large-sample likely voter survey showing Blumenthal up 56-41, and out of any danger.

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Warnock needs strong turnout in Georgia

Monmouth has a new poll of Georgia’s close and crucial Senate race that focuses on different turnout scenarios, as this pollster often does. It shows Democrat Raphael Warnock with a small-to-sizable lead if turnout is generally strong, but also shows Republican Herschel Walker with a double-digit lead among voters more enthusiastic about this election than the last two (presumably hard-core Republicans). More tangibly, Monmouth has Warnock leading Walker 61-34 among the “1 in 4 potential voters” who have already cast ballots in person or by mail. Thus, as in 2020, the big question will be “to what extent Republican enthusiasm on Election Day is able to overcome the Democratic advantage in early voting,” as Monmouth put it.

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Key races remain close across the country

A batch of new battleground state surveys from Data for Progress show close Senate and gubernatorial contests all around. In Arizona, the poll shows Democratic senator Mark Kelly and Republican Blake Masters tied at 47 percent among likely voters, while Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake has opened up a four-point (50-46) lead on Democrat Katie Hobbs. In Nevada, Data for Progress has Republican Adam Laxalt leading Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto 49-48, and similarly, shows Republican Joe Lombardo leading Democratic Governor Steve Sisolak 48-47. In New Hampshire, this Democratic pollster confirms the general impression that Republican Don Bolduc has narrowed Senator Maggie Hassan’s lead, but she’s still ahead 50-44. And in Wisconsin, Data for Progress shows Republican Senator Ron Johnson opening up a 51-47 lead over Democrat Mandela Barnes, while his gubernatorial ticket-mate, Tim Michels, has a spare 49-48 lead over incumbent Democratic governor Tony Evers.