In the increasingly frantic search for assurance that Donald Trump can’t really get himself back into the White House, it is often noted that even if he has locked down the nomination before one of his major criminal trials is underway, he could be convicted before the Republican National Convention meets to formally nominate a candidate. Would the convention consider dumping this old sack of damaged goods to preserve its general-election prospects? How about if he’s somehow behind bars? That’s unlikely given his options for appealing any conviction, but let’s look at the possibility.
Now as in the recent past, Republican National Committee rules require that delegates who are pledged to specific candidates via the conditions of their selection (in 2024, there will be 2,365 pledged delegates and just 104 unpledged delegates) stick with their candidate for at least one ballot.
Is there a way to unbind them? Well, Republicans went through a bit of a test of this question the first time Trump ran for president, in 2016, when longtime party heretic Curly Haughland of North Dakota got a lot attention from NeverTrump Republicans with his argument that delegates inherently enjoy the right to vote their consciences at conventions notwithstanding national or state party rules binding them to candidates via primary or caucus results. There was an actual effort at the RNC in Cleveland in July to formally unbind the delegates during deliberations of the convention’s rules committee. It failed, predictably, and then failed definitively after a voice vote to accept the rules on the convention floor.
Now, the question has arisen again not just because of some general buyer’s remorse about the likely identity of the nominee, but because of the possibility Trump’s legal situation could get a lot worse by the time Republicans meet in Milwaukee on July 15, 2024. As the Associated Press reports, there’s a way to unbind delegates, but there may not be the will:
The Republican National Committee’s rules for next year’s nominating contest and convention were released this week without addressing a question the GOP could well face next summer: Can the party’s delegates vote for a different candidate if the presumptive nominee is convicted of a felony? Former President Donald Trump is under four criminal indictments that will proceed through the GOP primary season, an overlap of legal and political calendars with no precedent in American politics. Fifteen states and American Samoa hold their GOP primaries on March 5, known as Super Tuesday, which is also the day after his first trial is scheduled to begin in Washington on charges that he unlawfully sought to overturn the 2020 election.
So there’s no specific loophole in the rules unbinding delegates just because their candidate he has been convicted of a felony or is even already in the slammer. That means the only way to unbind them is via a vote to change the rules in the convention’s rules committee or to suspend them on the convention floor. The former is extremely unlikely since the rules committee is dominated by RNC members and party loyalists. And the latter requires a two-thirds vote, which is quite a reach. Even then, the convention and party lawyers would have to contend with the problem of delegates from the 14 states where delegates are legally required to follow the results of primaries, sometimes for multiple ballots.
The more fundamental problem, of course, is that both the Republican rank and file and most GOP leaders have made it pretty clear they don’t care what happens to Trump in the various courts where he will stand trial during or after 2024. Polls consistently show most Republicans not questioning their preference for Trump if he’s convicted of felonies — even if they think he’s guilty — and all but two of his rivals in the nomination contest have publicly said they’d back him as the nominee in that circumstance. There’s no particular reason a significant portion of the GOP would reverse that position barring something truly monstrous coming out in a courtroom. The most likely trial to take place during the primaries, the federal proceedings against Trump for attempting to overturn the 2020 election results, involves conduct most Republicans resolutely consider innocent or certainly not criminal.
You never say never in politics, but the reality Trump haters need to accept is that dating back to 2016, Republicans have grown accustomed to the idea that Trump is largely invulnerable to exposure of his worst traits. If the Access Hollywood tape didn’t bring him down when he was supposedly already on the ropes against Hillary Clinton, why would a conviction following indictments Trump and his fans regard as the products of partisan witch hunts designed to force him out of the 2024 race? General-election voters may keep Trump out of the White House (assuming he accepts or is forced to accept the results). But his party’s not very likely to dump him even if he’s campaigning in leg-irons.
