Tim Scott Endorsing Trump Is Really Bad for Nikki Haley

Sorry, Nikki. Photo: MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images

The upcoming South Carolina Republican presidential primary on February 24 was already looking like a existential challenge for the candidacy of the former governor of that state, Nikki Haley. If she manages to come out of New Hampshire on January 23 with something better than a humiliating loss, GOP opinion leaders are likely to give her one last chance to upset Donald Trump in her home state (if she actually wins in New Hampshire, that assessment could change to an expectation that she will beat Trump in South Carolina).

Unfortunately for Haley, South Carolina is a Trumpier venue than New Hampshire, and the 45th president currently leads her in the Palmetto State by 30 points (according to the RealClearPolitics polling averages), consistently taking about half the vote. It doesn’t help that the zombie candidate who edged her in Iowa, Ron DeSantis, has chosen to make his last stand in South Carolina, and he’s very sure to go after her hammer and tong.

Haley is already struggling with the fact that South Carolina doesn’t exactly offer home cooking for her: Trump was endorsed many months ago by her successor as governor, Henry McMaster; by senior U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham; and by three of the four Republican U.S. House members who endorsed a candidate. And now she faces a new and perhaps more significant blow to her hold on her supposed base, as the New York Times reports:

Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina will endorse Donald J. Trump on Friday evening at a rally in New Hampshire, according to two people briefed on the matter.

Mr. Scott was traveling to Florida on Friday so that he could fly with Mr. Trump to New Hampshire for the rally, the two people said. …

Mr. Scott arrived at his decision only recently. After ending his own campaign for president on Nov. 12, he had said he would not endorse “anytime soon.” But he came to the conclusion that Mr. Trump was the best candidate to defeat President Biden, according to one person familiar with his thinking.

For Haley, this really has to sting. She, after all, appointed Scott to his Senate seat back in 2012. They have generally been regarded as close allies (they both, for example, endorsed Marco Rubio over Trump in 2016) up until the moment they each decided to run for president. And in many respects their views are more compatible with each other’s than with Trump’s (they both strongly favor U.S. backing of Ukraine and conspicuously don’t defend Trump’s election-denial high-jink in 2020). If the Times is right and Scott justifies his endorsement on electability grounds, that certainly undermines Haley’s own claim that she would be a much stronger contender against Joe Biden.

After New Hampshire votes, assuming she doesn’t just pack it in, Haley will have a solid month to convince South Carolina Republicans (along with the independents who can participate in the GOP primary) to fall back in love with her. They could be really painful days and weeks if Trump keeps adding endorsements from the people who know their former governor best. There could, of course, be one more twist to the conjoined saga of Nikki and Tim: they might both wind up on the short list to become Trump’s running mate, though she made a remark to some New Hampshire voters that may have put the kibosh on that idea:

Nikki Haley has to stay focused on New Hampshire for a few more days before worrying about facing a rebellion back home. But Tim Scott appearing in the camp of the opposition is a bad sign for a candidacy that’s already looking like a half-court shot at the buzzer.