Political observers are understandably focused on the January 23 New Hampshire primary and the February 24 South Carolina primary as the contests that will decide whether Nikki Haley can knock Donald Trump off stride. But it’s important to keep an eye on the rest of the presidential nominating contest that will quickly begin to unfold after the Palmetto State votes.
Because so many states will hold primaries or caucuses in March (28, to be exact), the simple way to assess the big picture is through national polls. Yes, it’s possible to overemphasize national polls before the early states vote, but once they have, then it really does become a national contest. And the abundant national polling we have shows Trump just getting stronger as the field of rivals opposing him shrinks.
Currently, Trump has 63.1 percent of the vote in the RealClearPolitics average of national GOP polls. He’s actually had a majority in these averages since early April 2023, but his numbers have slowly but steadily risen, hitting 60 percent in late November. Most of the polls we have were taken before Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out and endorsed the front-runner on the night of the Iowa caucuses. His backers will probably add a few points to Trump’s column. And if, as appears likely, Ron DeSantis is forced out of the race sometime soon, Trump will get a significant proportion of those votes too.
By comparison, when Trump won his first nomination in 2016, he never won a majority in the national GOP polls taken before he clinched the nomination in May. In 2012, Mitt Romney topped out in the national polls at 57 percent before his last serious surviving opponent, Rick Santorum, threw in the towel. In 2008, John McCain’s very best showing in a national GOP poll before he became the putative nominee was 63 percent, Trump’s average today. There’s just no overemphasizing how much the 45th president is dominating his party’s field.
But if that doesn’t convince you, let’s look at the polling we have for the states that will vote on Super Tuesday, March 5, the leading edge of the giant wave of contests that will occur after South Carolina votes. In Alabama, a Morning Consult poll taken when nine candidates were still running gave Trump 66 percent. In California, an Emerson poll this month showed Trump at 62 percent, 52 points ahead of Haley. In Minnesota, a November poll from Embold Research put Trump at 60 percent, 43 points ahead of DeSantis. In North Carolina, a survey this month from Public Policy Polling gave Trump 66 percent and a 54-point lead over Haley. In Tennessee, a poll last month from Targoz Market Research had Trump at 72 percent, 60 points ahead of DeSantis. In Texas, an Emerson poll this month showed Trump with 69 percent, 58 points ahead of Haley.
I could provide more data, but you get the idea. At this point, New Hampshire, where Haley is within 13 points of Trump in the RCP averages, is an outlier. You might assume she’s got a shot in her own South Carolina stomping grounds, but the truth is she trails Trump by 30 points there in the RCP averages. And as we’ve seen, after that the path gets rockier and the number of contests in which the front-runner will have a big advantage skyrockets.
Haley really better kick out the jams in the Granite State or get serious about deciding what she wants to do next. Yes, Trump faces a lot of legal perils in 2024, but none of them are likely to cost him significant support among Republicans in the short time frame before they pass judgment on his candidacy for the nomination. Right now, that judgment looks about as positive as it could for a pol as controversial as the 45th president.
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