Why Joni Ernst Is Caving on Hegseth Confirmation

Joni Ernst toeing the party line. Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

Less than a week ago, the most common descriptor you heard among Washingtonians about Defense-secretary nominee Pete Hegseth was “toast” or “dead man walking.” Many cited Senator Joni Ernst’s skepticism as a sign that even a Republican-controlled Senate would not confirm him. As Politico noted, the Senate Armed Services Committee member all but held her nose when talking about the former Fox New anchor:

Ernst (R-Iowa), who had a “frank and thorough” conversation with the Defense Department pick on Wednesday, was asked on “America’s Newsroom” if she’s not ready to vote yes on Hegseth … She replied: “I think you are right.”

“A number of our senators, they want to make sure that any allegations have been cleared and that’s why we have to have a very thorough vetting process,” Ernst said. “The vetting will continue, I am certain, through the next month or so until we approach that hearing date.”

That’s Beltway talk for “he’s in big trouble.” Ernst is a veteran, and when Trump selected Hegseth, his opposition to women serving in combat roles was well known. Then Hegseth was accused of alcohol abuse and sexual misconduct; it seemed that did not sit well with Ernst, a survivor of sexual assault who has crusaded for years to address sexual misconduct in the military.

Beyond the implications for Hegseth, Ernst’s arms-length attitude toward one of Trump’s key nominees was interpreted as sign that the Senate would maintain its independence under the next administration, despite Trump’s insistence on loyalty. The Iowan was emblematic of the Senate conservatives from Trump country whose own elections predated Trump’s and who thus presumably had their own solid constituencies back home.

Now Ernst appears to have experienced a real attitude adjustment about Hegseth, as the New York Times reported:

Only days after emerging from a private meeting with Mr. Hegseth sounding unconvinced about his fitness to lead the Pentagon, Ms. Ernst, the first female combat veteran to serve in the Senate and a survivor of sexual assault, indicated that a second sit-down had allayed her concerns.

And she suggested that a torrent of allegations against Mr. Hegseth that had put his candidacy in jeopardy — including sexual assault, sexual impropriety in the workplace, public drunkenness and fiscal mismanagement — might not be disqualifying unless his accusers came forward publicly.

“I appreciate Pete Hegseth’s responsiveness and respect for the process,” Ms. Ernst said in a statement after their meeting, adding that she had had “encouraging conversations” with Mr. Trump’s pick.

Ernst has some additional “encouragement” in that direction from Trump supporters and advisers, the Times observed:

Senator Joni Ernst, Republican of Iowa, signaled on Monday that she would not oppose Pete Hegseth’s bid for defense secretary, hinting at a turnabout after days of hectoring and threats by President-elect Donald J. Trump’s hard-right supporters who threatened political retribution if she failed to fall into line.

The “hectoring and threats” were a national MAGA phenomenon, and included some voices from Ernst’s home state, as the Iowa Democratic Party observed with glee:

Iowan Bob Vander Plaats, who is the President and CEO of The Family Leader, posted: “Undermining his nomination is to be in denial of America’s clear voice in the November 5 election.”

Turning Point USA Founder Charlie Kirk and MAGA Republican and Fox News contributor Mollie Hemingway, who have a combined 5 million followers on X, have attacked Ernst for her views on who should serve in the military.

Others are calling Ernst “spineless” and “worse than a RINO.”  Even country music star John Rich has misgivings about Ernst, asking if there are any Republicans in Iowa who want to primary her in 2026.

Iowa attorney general Brenna Bird, the first and most prominent statewide elected official to endorse Trump’s 2024 comeback bid, also penned a piece for Breitbart News that could be interpreted as a shot across the bow at Ernst, who is up for reelection in 2026:

[O]n election night, Iowans delivered Trump the largest margin of victory in the Hawkeye state since 1972, even after being told by the fools’ “gold standard” pollster that Trump would lose the state.

It was as clear of a message as possible, or so I thought.

In recent days, it’s become clear that D.C. politicians think they can ignore the voices of their constituents and entertain smears from the same outlets that have pushed out lies for years …

Trump has been building a qualified, talented, and powerful team to lead his America First agenda …

What we’re witnessing in Washington right now is a Deep State attempt to undermine the will of the people. We must not let Washington kill nominations before the Constitutional confirmation process even begins.

I don’t think it’s a stretch to think that this kind of pressure helped generate Joni Ernst’s new tone in talking about the Pentagon nominee. And more generally, whatever Trump himself is or is not saying or doing on behalf of his Cabinet nominees, his MAGA army online and all over the country is demanding a confirmation sweep by the Senate. They can afford a few defections from the likes of Susan Collins or Lisa Murkowski, who rely on non-Republican voters to keep them in office. But for the bulk of Senate Republicans, “independence” is just a term for self-sabotage, particularly so soon after Trump’s election win.