In 2022, Democrats ceded control of the House of Representatives, and a series of Democratic losses on Long Island was a big part of the reason. Many of the seats closely contested two years are ago are back up for grabs again, and with two weeks to go before Election Day, a pair of recently released polls are showing some positive signs for two Democratic challengers.
A Siena College poll released Tuesday shows Democrat Laura Gillen leading Anthony D’Esposito, the Republican incumbent congressman, 53 percent to 41 percent among likely voters in the state’s Fourth Congressional District. Only 5 percent of voters said they either didn’t know whom they would vote for or declined to respond. In another Siena College poll for the First Congressional District, Republican congressman Nick LaLota is leading political commentator John Avlon 47 percent to 44 percent, placing the race within the poll’s 4.5 percent margin of error. Seven percent of voters said they didn’t know or didn’t answer the prompt.
A Survey USA poll found that 46 percent of 19th Congressional District residents were voting for attorney Josh Riley over Republican Congressman Marc Molinaro who received 42 percent. Twelve percent of respondents said they were undecided.
The Cook Political Report, which ranks the races, currently has LaLota’s seat as “likely Republican,” while D’Esposito’s seat is considered a “toss-up.” Though D’Esposito defeated Gillen in 2022 to win the open blue seat, he is considered one of the more vulnerable incumbents seeking reelection, which the Siena numbers appear to support. While LaLota is not thought to be as much at risk, poling within single-digit range of a Democratic challenger in a fairly red district may be cause for some alarm.
Six House seats outside New York City are considered to be in play with three belonging to Republican freshman incumbents including D’Esposito. With the final margin of control expected to be as tight as it was in 2022, each individual win or loss could tip the scale in favor of either party.
The New York suburbs have shown increasing variability in recent years, and the Siena poll underlines that. In the First District, Vice-President Kamala Harris led former president Donald Trump 49 percent to 48 percent, a slim one-point margin. However, in the Fourth District, voters broke for Harris over Trump 54 percent to 42 percent.
A statewide Siena poll showed Harris with a significant lead over Trump among likely voters in a head-to-head matchup. Respondents selected the vice-president over her Republican rival 58 percent to 39 percent, an increase from a Siena poll published last month that had Harris with 55 percent to Trump’s 42 percent.
