On Tuesday night, Donald Trump decisively won the White House. The rest of his party did well too; Republicans recaptured the Senate and appear on track to narrowly retain the House. They managed to knock off several of their most high-profile Democratic targets, including Senators Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Jon Tester of Montana, and they fended off challenges to incumbents in Texas and Florida and an unexpectedly strong bid by an independent candidate in Nebraska.
On Thursday, the Senate margin stood at 52-45 in the GOP’s favor with three outstanding races remaining, all in states won by Trump: Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. However, the Associated Press has since called the Pennsylvania’s race for the Republicans, shifting that figure to 53-45.
The results of those contests will determine the extent of the party’s power in the upper chamber. Currently, the party has two moderate senators, Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski, who have occasionally sided with their Democratic colleagues on specific issues or appointments. If the more conservative arm of the party can grow its numbers in the Senate, it could spell the difference between potentially swift or drawn-out confirmation hearings for Trump’s future Cabinet appointees or Supreme Court justices. In the event of another impeachment of Trump, the Senate holds the sole power to convict and could likely overrule any Democratic support for his removal with a larger margin. The party’s exact numbers in the chamber may also help to determine who will control the Senate after the 2026 midterms, when Democrats will have few clear pick-up opportunities.
With Democrats leading in two of the three uncalled races so far, Republicans appeared poised to win a 53-47 majority in the Senate, an increase from the current balance of power in the chamber. Here’s a look at where the remaining uncalled Senate races stand.
Arizona: Gallego vs. Lake
In Arizona, Democratic congressman Ruben Gallego faced off against Kari Lake, the conspiracy-theory-friendly former news anchor and 2022 Republican gubernatorial candidate. As of Thursday morning, Gallego holds a two-point lead for the open seat, ahead by at least 50,000 votes with 69 percent of the vote reporting. Politico notes that Gallego currently has the advantage, and it appears likely that he will hold his lead through the next few days of counting. Polling of the race had frequently shown Gallego well ahead of Lake, with analysts at Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball favoring the congressman in their ratings.
On Wednesday, Gallego said he and his team feel “optimistic” about the returns, while Lake urged her social-media followers on Election Day to join Turning Point USA to help with ballot curing. “This race is going to go down to the wire! We need ALL HANDS ON DECK to cure ballots and ensure the vote of every Arizonan counts,” she said.
Nevada: Rosen vs. Brown
Democratic senator Jacky Rosen is seeking a second term, facing Republican former U.S. Army captain Sam Brown in Nevada. As of Thursday morning, Rosen is ahead of Brown by close to 13,000 votes, which amounts to less than one percent. Election experts believe the remaining mail ballots will likely favor Rosen, which bodes well for her chances. Jon Ralston, the editor of the Nevada Independent who is known for his deep knowledge of the state, put it simply on Thursday. “Rosen is going to win,” he said. Though the Associated Press has yet to call the race, Decision Desk HQ is currently projecting a Rosen win.
Early Wednesday morning, Rosen was projecting confidence to her followers on social media. “We feel good about the results we’re seeing, but there are still thousands of votes to be counted. Our democracy takes time, and I’m confident that we will win as more votes come in,” she wrote.
Pennsylvania: Casey vs. McCormick
Bob Casey, the three-term Democratic senator, faced a tough reelection bid against Dave McCormick, a former hedge-fund CEO who previously ran in the Republican primary for Pennsylvania’s other Senate seat. McCormick is currently leading Casey by about 30,000 votes, a difference of less than a percentage point. Though there are outstanding ballots to be counted, the path for a Casey victory appeared to narrowing by Thursday morning. Mark Davin Harris, a consultant for McCormick’s campaign, said the bulk of the remaining ballots will come from Cambria County and should favor McCormick.
The Associated Press officially called the race for McCormick Thursday afternoon, making Casey the fourth Democratic seat to flip this cycle. While McCormick has accepted the AP’s call, Casey has indicated that he intends to wait until the remaining ballots are counted. “It has been made clear there are more than 100,000 votes still to be counted. Pennsylvania is where our democratic process was born. We must allow that process to play out and ensure that every vote that is eligible to be counted will be counted. That is what Pennsylvania deserves,” he said on social media.
