Just when you thought Tom Reynolds was certain to spend his winter filling out forms in Buffalo temp agencies, he might have a shot. A SurveyUSA poll released yesterday had Reynolds hanging on to tiny lead over Jack Davis, 49-46. Maybe this will get Senator John McCain to reconsider appearing at a Reynolds fund-raiser tonight in Rochester. He'll have to hurry; the Reynolds magic may evaporate by the time the Monday-morning polls show up.