Trump’s Economic Message Is Fool’s Gold for Swing Voters

Trump’s violent January 6 followers were not especially focused on continuing his “greatest economy ever.” Photo: Samuel Corum/Getty Images

Polling in the 2024 presidential race suggests the key reason Donald Trump either leads or is in a close race with Joe Biden is his big advantage on the economy. To some extent that’s because of the residual impact of a spike in consumer and housing prices that may be abating but has not been forgotten. But it’s also because many voters have positive memories of how the economy performed when Trump was in office (particularly if he gets a mulligan for what happened during the COVID pandemic that hit during his last year as president). As Philip Bump of the Washington Post observes in a piece on the varying elements of Trump’s appeal, the 45th president’s “greatest economy” boast is a central part of his 2024 campaign message.

But Bump also makes the important point, relying on new data from the Public Religion Research Institute, that the economy is not at all the primary focus of voters at the heart of Trump’s MAGA base:

Respondents [to the PRRI survey] were asked if they preferred a presidential candidate who was best at managing the economy or one who was best at being able to “protect and preserve American culture and the American way of life.” …

Republicans — and particularly people who most trust Fox News and fringe-right television news channels — chose the presidential candidate willing to “preserve American culture.”

Nearly three-quarters of Republicans, moreover, agreed that “since the 1950s, American culture and way of life has mostly changed for the worse.” That’s at the center of the whole MAGA proposition, which has little to do with the ups and downs of the economy in the last few years. Culture-war-focused GOP indifference to Trump’s lawlessness is made understandable by another PRRI finding that Bump highlighted:

Respondents were also asked a question that approximated support for nondemocratic or autocratic deployment of power: Did the country need a leader willing to “break some rules” given how far off-track things have gotten?

Most people didn’t agree with this idea. About half of Republicans did, about 20 percentage points more than Democrats. Most of those who most trusted Fox News and the fringe-right news sources agreed that a rule-breaking leader might be the prescription.

Notice the correlation. Those who prefer a presidential candidate who is best at fighting for American culture are more likely to say that a leader should be allowed to break some rules to get America back on track.

It’s no mystery that MAGA devotees think Trump is that kind of tough, unyielding, rule-breaking leader. No wonder they are so loyal to him despite his erratic ways. Their loyalty, moreover, allows the Trump campaign to broadcast a non-culture-war message to the swing voters most concerned with the economy, notes Bump:

It also offers a different lens for his focus on the economy. He knows he has the support of those voters who are primarily focused on protecting American culture — a nebulous, fraught goal. So he’s making the case to everyone else.

To put it crudely, Trump 2024 is offering a shiny distraction to swing voters who might be expected to have issues with his authoritarian tendencies and deeply reactionary positions on cultural matters. Do you have a problem with racism, forced birth, homophobia, or a bit of the old fascist taste for armed violence against troublesome people? Here’s some money for you, generated by the “greatest economy ever!”

From this perspective, Trump’s economic message is a bribe to look the other way at policies and conduct that might otherwise dismay voters attracted to the fool’s gold of an allegedly booming economy. It’s a big part of the coalition he is trying to assemble and of why he might win despite the many concerns he inspires.