A recently spotted space rock has suddenly climbed atop astronomers’ threat lists. NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies calculates that the nearly 300-foot-wide asteroid 2024 YR now has a 2.3 percent chance of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032. That’s one percent higher than what the European Space Agency calculated a week ago. That may seem like a cause for alarm, but astronomers aren’t terribly worried about it yet. Below is a quick look at the risk of 2024 YR making a deep impact on our home world.
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Holy crap! Are we all going to die in 2032?!
No, or at least not because of the 2024 YR asteroid.
First off, there is currently only about a one-in-43 chance that this rock hits Earth, and those odds will change (and probably go down) as scientists gather more data on the recently spotted asteroid. A nearly 98 percent chance it won’t hit us is pretty good.
Second, while that’s definitely a massive rock, it’s not like a dinosaurs-killing size. Three hundred feet wide is about on par with the asteroid that exploded over Siberia in 1908 (also known as the 1908 Tunguska Event). That rock blew up in the sky and flattened about 800 square miles of remote forest but obviously did not cause Armageddon.
Put another way, the asteroid currently ranks three out of ten on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which astronomers use to categorize potential Earth-impact events. Ten is an impact that could potentially end civilization, but three is:
A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away.
Third, if the odds do go way up, we’ll know all that well in advance of December 2032 and have plenty of time to freak out and get into prepping or for scientists to find a way to knock it off course later.
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So … don’t panic?
No, there are plenty of other things worth panicking about right now, but not this.
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But if does hit Earth, that would still be really bad, right?
Yeah, an asteroid of that size hitting the planet could do a lot of localized damage and be devastating if it exploded over a populated area. It’s not planet-killer size but is a potential city killer, as one scientist explained to CBS News.
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So what’s next?
Scientists are continuing to track the asteroid while it remains visible this month. Then, Earth will have another close encounter with 2024 YR in 2028, and it will become visible to skywatchers again. At that point, astronomers will reevaluate the risk and we can all plan accordingly.
